Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Season Discussion

[Bgoney]

Models have indeed busted way high with Pamela. She was a cane earlier, now back down to a TS. Expected to be as Cat 1 again before making landfall. Looks like now, the NHC has her topping out at 85. She is moving N at 9 mph and is expected to make landfall in Mexico tomorrow morning.

GFS, HWRF, and HMON showed were the worst. Even the NHC busted which is a rarity

[tron777]

Pamela is back to a cane with winds of 75 this morning moving NE at 14. She doesn't have much time left over water so even making it to 85 mph is probably going to be tough.

[Bgoney]

Did another look back at the at the GFS with how it handled Pamela. Let me just say it probably set itself back quite a few notches with the NHC boys/girls. They won't soon forget

[tpweather]

Did another look back at the at the GFS with how it handled Pamela. Let me just say it probably set itself back quite a few notches with the NHC boys/girls. They won't soon forget

GFS had problems with Pamela while the Euro misses temps by 5 degrees on highs. Both models not doing well and my guess is since we have had an long period of way above normal in terms of rainfall and temps over much of the country the models have limited data. That is where the good met's should step in instead of following the models step by step

[tron777]

We have a new wave off the Mexican Coast that has a 60% chance for development in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

A 30% chance in the next 48 hours and 90% in the next 5 days with that wave off the Mexican Coast.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

50% / 90% now.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
700 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...RICK BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 101.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


What's interesting about Rick is that this one will be another one that runs into Mexico again instead of the usual movement out to sea away from Mexico. Seen a few of these this year in the East Pac.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 101.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.6N 101.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 102.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 16.0N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 17.0N 102.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 18.5N 103.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/0600Z 20.5N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0600Z 25.0N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[tron777]

Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...RICK EXPECTED TO BRING FLOODING RAINFALL, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
BEGINNING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 101.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

[tron777]

Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SLIGHTLY STRONGER RICK ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ZIHUATANEJO AND LAZARO CARDENAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS
SPREADING ONSHORE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 101.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

[tron777]

Rick is down to a TD so we can just about wrap this one up. Some of his moisture could get entrained via the STJ into our next system though.

[tron777]

East Pac is trying to get a little something cooking. Two waves to keep an eye on. One of them (closest to the coast) has a high chance of development.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

TD 18E will likely become a TS in the coming days but will move away from Mexico.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.s ... t#contents

[tron777]

In addition to TD 18 E we've got another wave in front of it that now has an 80% chance of development.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

TD 19 E joins 18 E:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep4.s ... t#contents

[tron777]

...SATELLITE WIND DATA FINDS TROPICAL STORM SANDRA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 115.2W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Terry Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
300 PM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM TERRY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.5N 102.6W
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[tron777]

Sandra and Terry are both TD's and pose no threat to land. In fact, give it a couple more days and they likely will be gone from the map.

[tron777]

Here are the names for 2022 for the Eastern Pacific Basin from the NHC:

I am on there!

Agatha
Blas
Celia
Darby
Estelle
Frank
Georgette
Howard
Ivette
Javier
Kay
Lester
Madeline
Newton
Orlene
Paine
Roslyn
Seymour
Tina
Virgil
Winifred
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke

[MVWxObserver]

Here are the names for 2022 for the Eastern Pacific Basin from the NHC:

I am on there!

Agatha
Blas
Celia
Darby
Estelle
Frank
Georgette
Howard
Ivette
Javier
Kay
Lester
Madeline
Newton
Orlene
Paine
Roslyn
Seymour
Tina
Virgil
Winifred
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke

Hey Les, will be interesting to see how strong Lester gets and where he'll go!

[tron777]

Eric, I hope I am a mean SOB! CAT 5 baby here we come!

[tron777]

We had a Cat 2 hurricane a few days ago, Agatha, that slammed into Mexico and is now a depression.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... shtml?cone

[tron777]

We have a new system off the Mexican Coast that has a 60% chance to develop in the next several days. The "B" storm is likely coming from this one.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

The East PAC wave has a 90% chance now in the next 3+ days to develop.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

The action is heating up now in the East PAC. We have TD 2E with winds of 30 mph heading off to the WNW. This one is expected to become a TS and a cane briefly before weakening again. It is expected to remain over open water.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.s ... t#contents


Next wave coming off the Mexican Coast has a 50% chance in the next 5 days of development.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2