Rocktober 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Will be a close call on the storms this afternoon - looks like they will either fire on top of us or just to our east according to the HRRR model.

I think the best chance for severe is East. The rain this morning isn't going to do us any favors.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and just the start of a busy 7 days ahead of us. Not sure if we get any storms as the front seems to be moving fast plus like Les mentioned the rainfall this morning will also put a hamper on any activity in our area. Most likely folks to the east has the better shot but everything seems to moving rather fast. The next big system starts later Wednesday and goes through at least Saturday and maybe Sunday as well. Big upper low and will moving slower than say me in the morning. The gfs which is almost always the fastest in terms of systems has it out by Saturday while the other two are somewhat slower. My question is what pushes this system out and not sure though their is a big high to the west but this big upper low is stubborn. My guess over the next couple of days models will go back and forth on the speed when new data comes in but will not have a good handle until probably Wednesday or Thursday. After that system moves through how cold do we get and I have been leaning warmer than the models though it will be below normal for a few days at least I am not sure how long this cold lasts. Again I have no problem for a nice 4-7 days of below normal temps but would love to see us head back towards normal or above and let the polar regions start to get really cold.

[tron777]

Myself and CVG are up to around 0.75" for the event total as of 8am.

[tron777]

Good Morning and just the start of a busy 7 days ahead of us. Not sure if we get any storms as the front seems to be moving fast plus like Les mentioned the rainfall this morning will also put a hamper on any activity in our area. Most likely folks to the east has the better shot but everything seems to moving rather fast. The next big system starts later Wednesday and goes through at least Saturday and maybe Sunday as well. Big upper low and will moving slower than say me in the morning. The gfs which is almost always the fastest in terms of systems has it out by Saturday while the other two are somewhat slower. My question is what pushes this system out and not sure though their is a big high to the west but this big upper low is stubborn. My guess over the next couple of days models will go back and forth on the speed when new data comes in but will not have a good handle until probably Wednesday or Thursday. After that system moves through how cold do we get and I have been leaning warmer than the models though it will be below normal for a few days at least I am not sure how long this cold lasts. Again I have no problem for a nice 4-7 days of below normal temps but would love to see us head back towards normal or above and let the polar regions start to get really cold.

Good morning Tim. Wonderful post as usual from you. Don't have much to add other then after week 1 in November, do we moderate (which is very possible) or is this pattern locked in for a while? Agree with you in that I'd like to see Canada get colder with some snow cover also then the week of Thanksgiving, let's start rocking and rolling with winter. It sounds like a good game plan on paper but Mother Nature always has a trick or two up her sleeve for us to deal with in the process. The pattern looks to remain active, I think everyone can agree on that aspect of the forecast.

[cloudy72]

Last line of rain now about to cross I-75. Forecast on here spot on as expected with any strong/severe threat looking like it will be occurring to our east. Rainfall total here 0.65" so far plus whatever hundredths I get with the approaching line. LOL

[tron777]

CVG and myself are around the 0.80" mark for the event total. That includes the cold frontal passage that just occurred within the last 30-45 mins.

[tron777]

After viewing the 12Z GFS and Euro for our next system, I am going with rain for Thurs, Fri, and Sat. Still going with a dry Halloween at this time. Rainfall amounts in my forecast will be at least an inch for the three day period. We're going to see a lot of wind too with models having the low pressure in the 990s MB. Euro today has the low at 992 MB

[Pepper]

Question for all of you do you happen to see a killing frost in the near future? We had a water pipeline go through and they decided to sew grass seed hoping it will get established before the frost it is just now coming up was planted on October 13. Fingers crossed it will survive!

[tron777]

Question for all of you do you happen to see a killing frost in the near future? We had a water pipeline go through and they decided to sew grass seed hoping it will get established before the frost it is just now coming up was planted on October 13. Fingers crossed it will survive!

Probably sometime during the first week of November is my guess at this time Pepper. We do have a chance at some frost Wed morning coming up but it won't be a freeze or anything like that.

[tron777]

Per radar, a few scattered showers are possible thru the evening hours as the wrap around moisture moves in on the backside of this storm. Temps will continue to slowly fall thru the 50s with brisk W to NW winds at 10-15 mph with an occasional gust over 20 thru the overnight hours.

A dry Tues and Wed with highs in the 50s primarily. Could tickle 60 on Wed. Also late Tues night and Wed morning, we need to watch the frost thereat too. It'll depend on clear skies and calm winds to see if it'll happen or not. Rural areas of course have the best chance versus city centers.

Finally.... we are windy and wet Thurs - Sat with the prospects of a dry Halloween at this point. However, as Tim mentioned the other day, we need to be prepared for changes to my Halloween dry call should the models be wrong with regards of the timing of when the cut off low finally moves out. Judging by the data, I am currently going dry.

[snowbo]

1.6" for this event

[tron777]

1.6" for this event

Impressive Bo! Hopefully, we can keep these moisture laden systems coming once we've got some cold air to play with.

[cloudy72]

Event total of 0.75” for me

[tron777]

Good evening all.... If you look at the US National radar, then you'll notice our next system already taking shape across the Pacific NW / Rockies. We get two days for outdoor plans and yard clean up (mowing, leaf grinding, etc) then sometime on Thurs... probably around midday or early afternoon at this early stage of the game... rain moves in with the cut off low and sticks around until Saturday. I mentioned earlier that the Euro had the low bottoming out at 992 MB. 18Z GFS decided to go crazy and showed 988.

Until then... can we get our first frost Wed morning? We'll see. I think even CVG will drop into the 30s. I've had two mornings so far at 38 and no frost yet here in the burbs minus rooftops. Lowest at CVG so far has been 39. I believe that we'll drop lower then that, but how low will depend on cloud cover and wind speed per usual.

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up 1.10" from Mon for a 2 day combo of 2.90"

[tron777]

Good morning all! Not much else to say for the rest of Rocktober other then what has already been discussed. Breezy and the 50s today. Nice tomorrow perhaps 60 then rain moves in by late morning to midday Thurs. On and off rains ending Sat. Halloween should be near 60 for the high so 50s basically during trick or treat time. Then we're on to November! I still like an inch of rain with this next system as well as windy conditions.

[tpweather]

Good morning all! Not much else to say for the rest of Rocktober other then what has already been discussed. Breezy and the 50s today. Nice tomorrow perhaps 60 then rain moves in by late morning to midday Thurs. On and off rains ending Sat. Halloween should be near 60 for the high so 50s basically during trick or treat time. Then we're on to November! I still like an inch of rain with this next system as well as windy conditions.

Good Morning Les and the forecast looks good. I agree with rain totals and with the next system it will be off and on rain from midday Thursday through at least midday Saturday and I agree most folks should end up with around an inch of rain so no flooding but it will quite windy. Does the system slow down enough to last into Halloween and most models have it out by then so I will as well but these kind of systems are really funny and they can stay around longer than models show but also when they are ready to finally leave it can be a quick exit.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Not much else to say for the rest of Rocktober other then what has already been discussed. Breezy and the 50s today. Nice tomorrow perhaps 60 then rain moves in by late morning to midday Thurs. On and off rains ending Sat. Halloween should be near 60 for the high so 50s basically during trick or treat time. Then we're on to November! I still like an inch of rain with this next system as well as windy conditions.

Good Morning Les and the forecast looks good. I agree with rain totals and with the next system it will be off and on rain from midday Thursday through at least midday Saturday and I agree most folks should end up with around an inch of rain so no flooding but it will quite windy. Does the system slow down enough to last into Halloween and most models have it out by then so I will as well but these kind of systems are really funny and they can stay around longer than models show but also when they are ready to finally leave it can be a quick exit.

The Canadian is slower on its new overnight run and lingers showers now until early Sun afternoon. I don't yet see any other model doing that so will discount it for now. However, that thought needs to remain in the back of our minds just in case adjustments are needed later.

[tron777]

12Z NAM ending at 8pm Friday shows 0.45" for CVG in terms of rainfall.

[tron777]

12Z GFS event total for CVG is around 1.75" I'm going with at least an inch at this point. The model starts the rain off around midday Thursday and lingers it into Sat evening. Still looking good for Halloween at this time on the GFS. I mentioned that the overnight CMC run lingers the showers into Halloween afternoon. This run is a bit faster, Halloween morning so the CMC right now is likely still too slow in exiting of this storm system.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS event total for CVG is around 1.75" I'm going with at least an inch at this point. The model starts the rain off around midday Thursday and lingers it into Sat evening. Still looking good for Halloween at this time on the GFS. I mentioned that the overnight CMC run lingers the showers into Halloween afternoon. This run is a bit faster, Halloween morning so the CMC right now is likely still too slow in exiting of this storm system.

I agree Les and having 1 inch over a 48-60 hour period should cause no problems. There will be dry times but if you get under a band of showers you can pick a could 1/4 inch rather quickly plus it will be windy and I believe each day a little more on the cooler side as well. Mowed the grass once again today and I have never seen it so lush this time of year and still tons of leaves that are bright green and look very healthy

[tron777]

12Z Euro brings the rain in by Thurs late morning to the midday period. Probably a hair faster then the GFS but not by much. Halloween still dry on this run. Rainfall total for CVG 1.17" This is actually much closer to my call for this next event. I like it!

Tim... will be doing mine / leaf grinding tomorrow after work ahead of this next system.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro brings the rain in by Thurs late morning to the midday period. Probably a hair faster then the GFS but not by much. Halloween still dry on this run. Rainfall total for CVG 1.17" This is actually much closer to my call for this next event. I like it!

Tim... will be doing mine / leaf grinding tomorrow after work ahead of this next system.

I will be heading over to my daughter's on Wednesday to cut her grass once again.

[tron777]

Dews are down to 36 so as long as the wind can relax tonight, some frost in the morning is highly possible. We'll have the clear skies, it's the wind that needs to relax to promote good frost formation and radiational cooling conditions.

[tpweather]

Dews are down to 36 so as long as the wind can relax tonight, some frost in the morning is highly possible. We'll have the clear skies, it's the wind that needs to relax to promote good frost formation and radiational cooling conditions.

I agree Les and with lush vegetation frost will form very easily if the winds relax like you mentioned.