February 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Oh and by the way, get busy if you're going to beat me in the post count. I'm off to a FAST START!

No one stands a chance in that department!

You've got a better chance at a snow storm in march!

[tron777]

Both the operational NAM and GFS have about 1.5” even up here. 3km NAM has a sharper north cutoff so will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Seems like models keep coming north with the heavier rains with each successive run. Wonder if CVG can pull off 2"? Not gonna rule it out.

[tron777]

Up to 1.5" from the Euro at CVG:

Code: Select all

SUN 06Z 28-FEB   9.4     9.0    1017      93      81    0.01     569     556    
SUN 12Z 28-FEB  12.0    10.7    1013      97      99    0.72     569     559    
SUN 18Z 28-FEB  17.5    10.8    1010      93      74    0.62     569     560    
MON 00Z 01-MAR  15.8     9.9    1010      96      81    0.05     566     558    
MON 06Z 01-MAR   7.2     3.0    1016      73      54    0.07     562     549   

[Trevor]

Both the operational NAM and GFS have about 1.5” even up here. 3km NAM has a sharper north cutoff so will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Seems like models keep coming north with the heavier rains with each successive run. Wonder if CVG can pull off 2"? Not gonna rule it out.

I was wondering the same thing. Definitely a shift north in the runs last night and this morning. Wonder if ILN will nudge the FFW north at some point. Certainly something to watch.

[Bgoney]

I think ILN has to bump it north another line of counties, maybe two. There is plenty of support/uncertainty of where that 1.5 - 2.5" heavy axis is locally and its in relatively a short period. So I fully expect expansion of the FFW

[tron777]

Up to 61 here now as of 2pm! Probably will put some seed and straw out shortly after this heavy rain event moves thru so it doesn't get washed away.

[cloudy72]

Just took a stroll through the hood and man what a day! My temp says 58 but it feels a lot warmer than that! Prob after the ice age we had the past 3-4 weeks it feels like summer now LOL

[tron777]

I'm pumped! Not to get out the boats, but to post on our new forum! We're going to get this thing set up right. With severe wx season looming, the old board went down at the right time! She carried us through that epic two week stretch! They run their best before they die, right?

But yeah, a beaut today, Mike!

[Angelika]

About what time do we think the rain will start? Husband and I would like to grill out dinner if possible.

[tron777]

About what time do we think the rain will start? Husband and I would like to grill out dinner if possible.

Welcome back, Ang! :D

I don't see much happening until late this evening. After midnight you're fair game for steadier rainfall.

[tron777]

I think ILN has to bump it north another line of counties, maybe two. There is plenty of support/uncertainty of where that 1.5 - 2.5" heavy axis is locally and its in relatively a short period. So I fully expect expansion of the FFW

A new avatar for you Bgoney or the classic winter tombstone?

[cloudy72]

Note I am not advocating severe threat here - but Euro hinting at some thunder first half of tomorrow across the Tri State.

[tron777]

The SPC has a marginal risk for Central KY on south.

day2probotlk_1730_torn.gif

[tron777]

LLJ and weak SB CAPE in the SW from the Euro. Good heavy rain signal with that 40 to 50 knot LLJ causing some good lift.

SB CAPE.png

LLJ Euro.png

[tpweather]

Made it home but my back went in spasms late yesterday and anytime I work the back like I did with shoveling it takes about two weeks and boom the spasms start. Back to the weather and I see models are hitting us with some heavier rainfall. Earlier in the week we talk about this period and whether it would be several waves or 1 big storm. Then as we moved forward the models kept moving it south until the last few days and know looking a really decent rain maker. Will comment more later when I look at everything.

Glad the forum is up and running, Great job guys as always!!!

[tron777]

Glad you're back, Tim! Hope you feel better soon my friend.

[stormknight]

I know I don't post often, but I've been around since the skyeye days and always love everyone's posts and analysis!! Glad you are back up and running!!

[tron777]

I know I don't post often, but I've been around since the skyeye days and always love everyone's posts and analysis!! Glad you are back up and running!!

Welcome back! Glad you came back.

[Storm Gazer]

Wow!! No wonder I was getting nothing yesterday trying to get on for the first time in a couple of days. lol

Good to be back and thank you Trevor and Les and anyone else I've missed, getting us back together!!!

Same here, Gina. I tried to log on and my first thought was “uh, oh. Trev must have let the license expire again.” LOL But seriously, so glad all is back up and running again. Thanks to Trev, Les and Aaron for their hard work keeping this wonderful site going. I don’t post much but I am a faithful reader.

[tron777]

Welcome back Sherry! Always enjoy your posts. :D

[tpweather]

Good afternoon and how much rain will we end up with. 2 inches is looking more and more likely for many folks. We are slightly below normal for precip for the year so this will be nice. Snow and yes even snow is starting to show up on the models. One of the ways is with a upper level system and the models are picking up on that Tuesday into Wednesday. With these kind of systems you need to be right under the low and if precip is hard enough snowfall can add up in a small area. March is probably the best month for these systems and you can have the system produce 40 and rain in Lexington,35 and rain in Indy and 31 and snow in Cincinnati. Just an example of how these systems can happen. Way to early for any predictions but the models are starting to show this and being over 72 hours out that is a good sign something is going to happen. So much more to talk about but going to get the heating pad again.

[tron777]

1.67" at CVG from the 18Z NAM.

[tron777]

Good afternoon and how much rain will we end up with. 2 inches is looking more and more likely for many folks. We are slightly below normal for precip for the year so this will be nice. Snow and yes even snow is starting to show up on the models. One of the ways is with a upper level system and the models are picking up on that Tuesday into Wednesday. With these kind of systems you need to be right under the low and if precip is hard enough snowfall can add up in a small area. March is probably the best month for these systems and you can have the system produce 40 and rain in Lexington,35 and rain in Indy and 31 and snow in Cincinnati. Just an example of how these systems can happen. Way to early for any predictions but the models are starting to show this and being over 72 hours out that is a good sign something is going to happen. So much more to talk about but going to get the heating pad again.

Tim, we're still on the same page even on our new forum! Glad to see some things never change lol NAM has been showing this solution the last few runs. Euro as well, just needs to close off sooner. GFS is very progressive as usual.

[Trevor]

Wow!! No wonder I was getting nothing yesterday trying to get on for the first time in a couple of days. lol

Good to be back and thank you Trevor and Les and anyone else I've missed, getting us back together!!!

Same here, Gina. I tried to log on and my first thought was “uh, oh. Trev must have let the license expire again.” LOL But seriously, so glad all is back up and running again. Thanks to Trev, Les and Aaron for their hard work keeping this wonderful site going. I don’t post much but I am a faithful reader.

not surprised some would think that! In this case it was just dinosaur technology that was the demise. Sucks that we lost all of the posts dating back to 2008, but at least the domain is the same! Glad to have ya back!

[tron777]

1.76" from the 18Z GFS. 1-2" for our coverage area looks like a good call.