Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2021-2022

[tron777]

I don’t know if this website is accurate and correct me if I’m wrong but this is going to be the first time we’ve seen back to back moderate La Niñas. This can’t be overlooked IMO and this would put a major strain on finding analogs to compare
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

This is going to be very interesting. I’ve noticed also that there are no anomalous westerly zonal wind anomalies in the artic stratosphere (usually you see some), and the second thing I’ve noticed is the Aleutian low is present more than it’s not (this is very El Niño like and not La Niña like). This could flip but thought it was worth noting regardless

Jason, always glad when you are posting, So much knowledge and very grateful when you share with us. Very interesting set up and want to go back to last November and get your thoughts on what happen in much of northern Siberia with tons of heavy snow very far north when its usually just dry and cold at that time of year. I had never seen that kind of heavy snow so late in the season and imo this delayed winter last season and once it let go we saw what happen in February.

Concerning this season so far and very mild in northern and central Canada so far and yes starting to get colder but this a very late start to their cold season. Not sure what this means and maybe you have some insight on this as well.

Tim... I love this post because I think it ties in nicely to what I just asked Phr0z3n, with regards to the EPO. We need it negative to fill Canada up with cold.

[Phr0z3n]

I don’t know if this website is accurate and correct me if I’m wrong but this is going to be the first time we’ve seen back to back moderate La Niñas. This can’t be overlooked IMO and this would put a major strain on finding analogs to compare
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

This is going to be very interesting. I’ve noticed also that there are no anomalous westerly zonal wind anomalies in the artic stratosphere (usually you see some), and the second thing I’ve noticed is the Aleutian low is present more than it’s not (this is very El Niño like and not La Niña like). This could flip but thought it was worth noting regardless

Jason, always glad when you are posting, So much knowledge and very grateful when you share with us. Very interesting set up and want to go back to last November and get your thoughts on what happen in much of northern Siberia with tons of heavy snow very far north when its usually just day and cold at that time of year. I had never seen that kind of heavy snow so late in the season and imo this delayed winter last season and once it let go we saw what happen in February.

Concerning this season so far and very mild in northern and central Canada so far and yes starting to get colder but this a very late start to their cold season. Not sure what this means and maybe you have some insight on this as well.

Hey TP it’s good to see you again and thank you for the compliment. Going back to last November look how there was no blocking whatsoever that resulted in neg value anomalies in the Arctic stratosphere at that time.

2DDD9C15-2AF4-4072-8843-D3EBC7BC47D5.png

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I think that was a main contributor to the Pv staying at home and not being displaced. With that being said you bring up a very good point. This isn’t going to happen this year (at least I don’t think). So the cold that does make it to the lower 48 will be shallow cold due to the PV never getting that early chance to strengthen and then being released. I wouldn’t be betting on sustained cold early winter but rather passing cold shots
And warmer shots. Which the potential for phasing monster storms would go up and lake effect would possibly last longer due to the lakes never freezing.

[tpweather]

Thanks for the response Jason. I agree 100p/c about shallow cold air because of the PV not getting strong. Of course we can still get cold but I agree a back and forth pattern for later Nov and Dec but this does lead to storminess. I do believe this brings some heavier snows not only to the lakes but the upper midwest in general I expect above normal snowfall. Concerning snowfall totals for us and still working on that and a much tougher question to answer.

[tron777]

If this is correct, with the cold air being more shallow, the chance of an ice storm would go up as well. It's going to be a wild winter most likely.

[Phr0z3n]

If this is correct, with the cold air being more shallow, the chance of an ice storm would go up as well. It's going to be a wild winter most likely.

Agree 100 percent. I was answering your post on the epo but got disconnected. I checked the teleconnection forecasts for the epo and it is going to go negative for about a week or so after Halloween but after that it looks ugly and positive. This isn’t a necessarily a bad thing as it’ll let the Pv strengthen. I believe the epo is feeding off of the -PDO signal that hopefully weakens back to neutral. I need to dig into finding what this PDO is going to do because right now I think it’s in the drivers seat and overpowering the La Niña signal

[Phr0z3n]

Thanks for the response Jason. I agree 100p/c about shallow cold air because of the PV not getting strong. Of course we can still get cold but I agree a back and forth pattern for later Nov and Dec but this does lead to storminess. I do believe this brings some heavier snows not only to the lakes but the upper midwest in general I expect above normal snowfall. Concerning snowfall totals for us and still working on that and a much tougher question to answer.

No problem (my name is Matt btw) it feels good to be back and talking weather.

[tpweather]

Thanks for the response Jason. I agree 100p/c about shallow cold air because of the PV not getting strong. Of course we can still get cold but I agree a back and forth pattern for later Nov and Dec but this does lead to storminess. I do believe this brings some heavier snows not only to the lakes but the upper midwest in general I expect above normal snowfall. Concerning snowfall totals for us and still working on that and a much tougher question to answer.

No problem (my name is Matt btw) it feels good to be back and talking weather.

Sorry Matt and that is my bad. I can barely remember the names of all my grandchildren lol. Pain getting old

[Phr0z3n]

Thanks for the response Jason. I agree 100p/c about shallow cold air because of the PV not getting strong. Of course we can still get cold but I agree a back and forth pattern for later Nov and Dec but this does lead to storminess. I do believe this brings some heavier snows not only to the lakes but the upper midwest in general I expect above normal snowfall. Concerning snowfall totals for us and still working on that and a much tougher question to answer.

No problem (my name is Matt btw) it feels good to be back and talking weather.

Sorry Matt and that is my bad. I can barely remember the names of all my grandchildren lol. Pain getting old

No problem I’m the same way with names!

[Phr0z3n]

Actually I misspoke about the EPO and I apologize. I’ll post the euro ensemble and the gfs extended. The control is more positive than the ensemble mean so I was mixed up. I have to say it looks pretty good.

13BB149D-6A42-4AF7-A060-40D93BB7779A.png

9BFEBFCD-620C-4A4C-9BCA-7F548B5B76C0.png

[tron777]

If this is correct, with the cold air being more shallow, the chance of an ice storm would go up as well. It's going to be a wild winter most likely.

Agree 100 percent. I was answering your post on the epo but got disconnected. I checked the teleconnection forecasts for the epo and it is going to go negative for about a week or so after Halloween but after that it looks ugly and positive. This isn’t a necessarily a bad thing as it’ll let the Pv strengthen. I believe the epo is feeding off of the -PDO signal that hopefully weakens back to neutral. I need to dig into finding what this PDO is going to do because right now I think it’s in the drivers seat and overpowering the La Niña signal

Thanks Matt for the response! Could see a lot of overrunning situations and a gradient winter which isn't a bad thing unless you're on the wrong side of the baroclinic zone. Typically our area down here (I-70 on south) is on the dividing line so you may as well expect it. Only exception would be if the blocking can push that zone further to the south then you'd usually see then maybe even in Cincy, we can be on the snowy side more often. But at the same time, you're battling the SE ridge too. It's going to be a very complex pattern with lots of changes as you mentioned (both warm and cold).

[tron777]

Actually I misspoke about the EPO and I apologize. I’ll post the euro ensemble and the gfs extended. The control is more positive than the ensemble mean so I was mixed up. I have to say it looks pretty good.
13BB149D-6A42-4AF7-A060-40D93BB7779A.png9BFEBFCD-620C-4A4C-9BCA-7F548B5B76C0.png

Is there a graphic like that for the WPO? I'd like to know if the WPO and EPO both go negative like 2013-2014 was. Then it doesn't matter quite as much what the NAO does if you get that combo working together for you. It's always better honestly better for us in the OV to have a better Pacific versus a better Atlantic.

[Phr0z3n]

Actually I misspoke about the EPO and I apologize. I’ll post the euro ensemble and the gfs extended. The control is more positive than the ensemble mean so I was mixed up. I have to say it looks pretty good.
13BB149D-6A42-4AF7-A060-40D93BB7779A.png9BFEBFCD-620C-4A4C-9BCA-7F548B5B76C0.png

Is there a graphic like that for the WPO? I'd like to know if the WPO and EPO both go negative like 2013-2014 was. Then it doesn't matter quite as much what the NAO does if you get that combo working together for you. It's always better honestly better for us in the OV to have a better Pacific versus a better Atlantic.

8B6E0122-383F-4DE6-AB4C-3AC5AB7691A9.png

91F77F42-E37C-4DE1-BA33-13A02E5F7F4E.png

[tron777]

Thank you again Matt! I was hoping it was going to trend negative. I really like a -WPO / -EPO combo. No clue if that will be the theme for the winter or not but if it is... it's going to get cold to go along with the storminess.

[tron777]

A couple of Euro Weekly images in the way way out there range - December:

EuroWeeklies1.png

EuroWeeklies2.png

[tpweather]

Nice maps Les and the Euro has a hard time picking out cold sometimes so this is nice to see. Wet and below normal in temps for late November and December sounds good to me. Getting snows in early December is something I love because days are still getting shorter and snow on the ground will usually stay longer. Plus its the holiday season which I love and having snow during the month makes it that much better.

[tron777]

Nice maps Les and the Euro has a hard time picking out cold sometimes so this is nice to see. Wet and below normal in temps for late November and December sounds good to me. Getting snows in early December is something I love because days are still getting shorter and snow on the ground will usually stay longer. Plus its the holiday season which I love and having snow during the month makes it that much better.

I couldn't agree more. I'd gladly take a front loaded winter. We haven't had one really since 2010-2011.

[tpweather]

Of course I am trying to figure out why the northern hemisphere arctic regions are having a hard time of getting cold for this time of year. I understand some of the reasons but the south pole just went through one of their coldest winters in years and even today which is like late April for them temps remain very cold. I know they are the coldest place on earth but I was looking at some recent temps and still some places are -80 degrees. Not even sure what the average temps is there this time of year but -80 seems a little bit on the cold side. I know Mother Nature is always balancing things out and this could be a reason. I have also notice that spring in Australia has been very busy with tornado's and this tells me that some cold shots were still hitting the area in early spring and yes this past winter for them was a little different than normal as they had plenty of nice mild weather for the most part but when some of the cold was released from the south pole they really got cold for a period of time.

[tron777]

Of course I am trying to figure out why the northern hemisphere arctic regions are having a hard time of getting cold for this time of year. I understand some of the reasons but the south pole just went through one of their coldest winters in years and even today which is like late April for them temps remain very cold. I know they are the coldest place on earth but I was looking at some recent temps and still some places are -80 degrees. Not even sure what the average temps is there this time of year but -80 seems a little bit on the cold side. I know Mother Nature is always balancing things out and this could be a reason. I have also notice that spring in Australia has been very busy with tornado's and this tells me that some cold shots were still hitting the area in early spring and yes this past winter for them was a little different than normal as they had plenty of nice mild weather for the most part but when some of the cold was released from the south pole they really got cold for a period of time.

What I think (not necessarily correct mind you) but in my opinion, the blocking has been around for a while so it's keeping the cold air on the other side of the globe as well as the storminess needed to create snow cover. We need a -EPO to promote cross polar flow so the cold air can drain into Canada more so we can get said snow cover to develop over North America. Having a corporative Pacific pattern means a heck of a lot more for us in the winter in the OV then anything else.

[tpweather]

Of course I am trying to figure out why the northern hemisphere arctic regions are having a hard time of getting cold for this time of year. I understand some of the reasons but the south pole just went through one of their coldest winters in years and even today which is like late April for them temps remain very cold. I know they are the coldest place on earth but I was looking at some recent temps and still some places are -80 degrees. Not even sure what the average temps is there this time of year but -80 seems a little bit on the cold side. I know Mother Nature is always balancing things out and this could be a reason. I have also notice that spring in Australia has been very busy with tornado's and this tells me that some cold shots were still hitting the area in early spring and yes this past winter for them was a little different than normal as they had plenty of nice mild weather for the most part but when some of the cold was released from the south pole they really got cold for a period of time.

What I think (not necessarily correct mind you) but in my opinion, the blocking has been around for a while so it's keeping the cold air on the other side of the globe as well as the storminess needed to create snow cover. We need a -EPO to promote cross polar flow so the cold air can drain into Canada more so we can get said snow cover to develop over North America. Having a corporative Pacific pattern means a heck of a lot more for us in the winter in the OV then anything else.

Hey Les and I thought about that as well and the problem is even though Siberia is getting snow which is good they are still not getting really cold like you would expect. The only time I saw some really cold air was in central China a few weeks ago I believe and that was because of blocking that aloud some okay cold air to hit that area for a few days but just like us in mid-Oct the cold is not going to stay around long. So I believe starting week two of November it would make sense for the arctic regions to really start to get cold and lets hope so. Last year was the latest I had ever seen it snow heavy in the northern parts of Siberia in mid-November so each season seems to bring us something a little different but it keeps the mind going strong.

[tron777]

Current temps for Siberia... I don't think this looks too bad for late Oct. This is in Celsius mind you.

Siberia Temps.jpg

[tron777]

Animation of the last 7 dats... snow and ice coverage. We need help on the Canadian side as we all know. Glad it's not even Nov yet. Plenty of time!

imsalaska-7day.gif

[Phr0z3n]

Animation of the last 7 dats... snow and ice coverage. We need help on the Canadian side as we all know. Glad it's not even Nov yet. Plenty of time!


imsalaska-7day.gif

It should build up rather nicely in November. Euro weeklies and gefs extended have pretty much all of November below normal for us. It seems that a pattern change will begin this weekend and carry through on average through November.

6F7AA36D-6617-4386-A3B5-C28C9F8239BD.png

79E3A85F-8CA0-4439-93CB-C9B54E41AA30.png

[Phr0z3n]

I thought I would throw this In too. Gefs extended 35 day accumulation forecast

EA628C4B-5C85-4EF1-9627-91DD471BA280.png

This is following a Pos Pna neg Epo pattern quite well

[tron777]

That is looking really good Matt! We avg 1-2" down here for the month of November so any snow we get is a bonus before Met Winter sets in.

[tron777]

LC's thoughts for the winter: (This was from his FB page and the images that went along with the post)

2021-22 Winter (DJFM) Weather Summary
In some ways, the coming winter season may seem like that of the past (2020-21) DJFM period. Best cold potential will be in January and February, with a breakout cold wave and winter storm following a "Thaw" around January 9 - 17.
The somewhat stronger La Nina episode could generate a "rush effect" of snow build-up in Canada and the Intermountain Region in late November and December. If this increase in snowpack somehow does not occur, expectations for heating demand will be much lower along and below Interstate 80.
Once the maximum jet stream southward relocation is set (after Christmas 2021), Colorado/Trinidad A and B storms will dominate the weather with snow, ice and cold shots. There is a fair chance of a subtropical flow storm out of Mexico, or below the Gulf Coast, impacting the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard between January 22 and February 15.
I suspect that the worst part of winter weather (cold air and frozen precipitation) will target the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley. But that window in later January and February could prove very frigid, with intense cold, snow and ice threats in parts of the South and Eastern Seaboard.
The least chance for concerns for cold will be in California and the Desert Regions. After the threat for a "shock storm and cold snap" passes by March 10, the Dixie and Atlantic Coastal Plain locations look to warm up quickly. March looks much warmer over the southern two-thirds of the U.S., but chill and frozen types could linger past the equinox in southern Canada.

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