Rocktober 2021 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

Just had a close lightning strike!

[tron777]

The big storm in the west is still expected to stay off-shore this weekend keeping the most damaging winds away . Still expect 60-90mph gusts in the mtns. The better news is it is still going g to be an AR event and most likely record breaking for October in many areas. From NOAA:

One of the strongest October Atmospheric River events in recent memory will impact the Coastal Western United States this weekend. Recently upgraded to Category 5(!) AR status, it's not out of the question for up to 100" of snow to fall in the Sierras; 5-15" of rain elsewhere.

They sure need the moisture due to the drought. I am waiting to see in the next 2-3 weeks if the Gulf of Alaska low temp. gives it up for a while for a -EPO to develop to start cooling us down more come mid to late Nov. I think until then, the current pattern will continue which this time of year is fine. If it lingers on towards late Nov, then our winter could be in trouble.

[tron777]

Just had a close lightning strike!

Awesome! Nothing like a good morning wake up call.

[tron777]

BG Blog: https://www.wave3.com/2021/10/21/goode- ... blog-1021/

[MVWxObserver]

Currently tomorrow (Fri) looks dry via ILN and hopefully at least the morning hours will stay dry as my Dad has an Ace Hardware sack of nature that needs to be at the curb for pickup.

[tpweather]

The big storm in the west is still expected to stay off-shore this weekend keeping the most damaging winds away . Still expect 60-90mph gusts in the mtns. The better news is it is still going g to be an AR event and most likely record breaking for October in many areas. From NOAA:

One of the strongest October Atmospheric River events in recent memory will impact the Coastal Western United States this weekend. Recently upgraded to Category 5(!) AR status, it's not out of the question for up to 100" of snow to fall in the Sierras; 5-15" of rain elsewhere.

These storms at one time were more common in the pacific northwest. Growing up I can remember October being a very busy month for them with several big storms and a nice start to the snow pack. Alaska which got off to a great start this year in terms of snow and cold have been trending more towards the normal levels for mid-oct. Still waiting for the bigger cool down in Northern Canada and with a -NAO its not the perfect set up too get really cold. Sure they will get colder with longer nights but hopefully in early November this will change and this if this does it could mean a milder period for us between say Nov 4th-18th. Still a little to early to say this will happen but I am trying to see if the pattern switches by then.

[cloudy72]

So a couple of cells to my west this morning - let's see which way they bypass my hood!

[cloudy72]

Just had a close lightning strike!

Almost looks like that storm is trying to bow out a bit as it approaches Piqua area.

[Bgoney]

The big storm in the west is still expected to stay off-shore this weekend keeping the most damaging winds away . Still expect 60-90mph gusts in the mtns. The better news is it is still going g to be an AR event and most likely record breaking for October in many areas. From NOAA:

One of the strongest October Atmospheric River events in recent memory will impact the Coastal Western United States this weekend. Recently upgraded to Category 5(!) AR status, it's not out of the question for up to 100" of snow to fall in the Sierras; 5-15" of rain elsewhere.

These storms at one time were more common in the pacific northwest. Growing up I can remember October being a very busy month for them with several big storms and a nice start to the snow pack. Alaska which got off to a great start this year in terms of snow and cold have been trending more towards the normal levels for mid-oct. Still waiting for the bigger cool down in Northern Canada and with a -NAO its not the perfect set up too get really cold. Sure they will get colder with longer nights but hopefully in early November this will change and this if this does it could mean a milder period for us between say Nov 4th-18th. Still a little to early to say this will happen but I am trying to see if the pattern switches by then.

Nice post Tim , I agree with all you mention. Although not set in stone of course, that first half of November , looks like near to slightly above normal temps to average out for the period. Ridging near Ontario has been popping up now and again in the long range

[cloudy72]

0.00" in the dome

[tron777]

Currently tomorrow (Fri) looks dry via ILN and hopefully at least the morning hours will stay dry as my Dad has an Ace Hardware sack of nature that needs to be at the curb for pickup.

I think we'll see mist / drizzle / low clouds and fog with temps in the 50s.

[tron777]

The big storm in the west is still expected to stay off-shore this weekend keeping the most damaging winds away . Still expect 60-90mph gusts in the mtns. The better news is it is still going g to be an AR event and most likely record breaking for October in many areas. From NOAA:

One of the strongest October Atmospheric River events in recent memory will impact the Coastal Western United States this weekend. Recently upgraded to Category 5(!) AR status, it's not out of the question for up to 100" of snow to fall in the Sierras; 5-15" of rain elsewhere.

These storms at one time were more common in the pacific northwest. Growing up I can remember October being a very busy month for them with several big storms and a nice start to the snow pack. Alaska which got off to a great start this year in terms of snow and cold have been trending more towards the normal levels for mid-oct. Still waiting for the bigger cool down in Northern Canada and with a -NAO its not the perfect set up too get really cold. Sure they will get colder with longer nights but hopefully in early November this will change and this if this does it could mean a milder period for us between say Nov 4th-18th. Still a little to early to say this will happen but I am trying to see if the pattern switches by then.

Nice post Tim , I agree with all you mention. Although not set in stone of course, that first half of November , looks like near to slightly above normal temps to average out for the period. Ridging near Ontario has been popping up now and again in the long range

Great posts guys and I am also on board with this. For me, It's all about the 2nd half of November and if those changes that I have been mentioning occur or not. That will tell us if we are on track with our wintry ideas or if they're in trouble if the pattern does not change.

[Bgoney]

Both the GFS/EU show the big low off the coast strengthening into the 940s mb. before reaching the coast near 980mb. 12Z GFS keeps the North Pac/GOA strong lows marching into the first week of NOV. The surface water is going g to be getting a workout. I know it's not local weather but will continue to keep tabs. Because we know, what happens in the NPac doesn't stay in the NPac

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_fh-54-372.gif

[tron777]

I agree and thanks Bgoney for keeping us informed on this. Having a somewhat favorable Pacific is very key to us having a good winter here. Looks like the pattern continues to turn active for us locally with numerous rain chances coming down the pike. There is a chance just about every single day to be honest esp next week. For Halloween weekend, the new Euro run looks cold and chilly with some showers. Upper levels are cold enough to support some sleet pellets too. I will of course go with all rain at this distance naturally.

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up .30" from this morning's storm.

[tron777]

I had a high of 72 today. 59 now with NW winds behind the front. Should drop into the 40s by tomorrow morning. Low to mid 50s IMO for our high tomorrow thanks to low clouds, fog, mist and drizzle occurring. Again, I like Sat for outdoor plans. Should be the low 60s or so. Then we'll have to see the timing and track of that next system for Sunday and Monday. More action after that. Looks like we're going to get busy tracking weather systems now on our forum.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Happy Fri to you! Low clouds, drizzle, mist and the 50s today. A decent Sat then rain Sun / Mon and an active next week. In the meantime, while you're drinking some coffee this morning, another DT This Week in Weather for you to watch.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and usually I don't like to watch forecasts from DT or anybody until I have looked over everything but today I did and what a great video by DT. Maybe one of the best he has shown in years. We talked about the mjo I believe last week and I thought it was going somewhere in the phase 8-2 area and that was a big factor in my longer term forecast. That seems to be the case and what a stormy period we are heading into. Many times you will see these big west coast storms just bring us mild and wet conditions. Yes that is the case later Sunday through early next week. So what is different about this set up than we normally see and that is the big time blocking in northern Canada. This will not allow even a huge and strong storm that is hitting the northwest this weekend to make it to far north and instead that energy heads back southeast. This shows us how important blocking is in the winter time for us to get some decent snows. I am a pattern person and several weeks ago I saw the pacific just sending in energy to the pacific northwest and I was thinking not the pattern I like to see but I did notice the blocking. Well that blocking looks to very strong so we end up a wild pattern for late Oct and early Nov. If you are bored with the weather today then the next 2 weeks are going to change that as it will become very stormy. Wish this pattern was happening in about 5-6 weeks and maybe it will repeat itself but I will take this for late next week. Can we get snow out of this pattern and not sold on that because even with a decent push of cold air from Canada late next week it has not been really cold for them up there as of yet so it will only get so cold here. Sure an upper low can produce its own cold air but you must be in the exact perfect location for the set up and usually that is something we don't see until a few days before and event. I have much more on the pattern and will post probably quite often this weekend.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim... I couldn't agree with you more. If the MJO is indeed going into those phases then the early call for winter I think continues to look good. Would also love to see that Nina collapse rapidly like that. It could potentially save the second half of winter from being a torch with a big SE Ridge. Again... my call is for a better pattern to develop for winter weather lovers in the second half of November. We'll see how it goes.

[tron777]

BG Blog update: https://www.wave3.com/2021/10/22/goode- ... blog-1022/

[tron777]

The only change to make to the forecast would be due to a further north track of our next system, I think showers are likely Sat night into Sun morning with the warm front. Then a break Sun afternoon (windy and warm) but I think we'll see some dry time too. Then more action Sun night and Mon with the actual cold frontal passage. I think the timing I have posted here for those with outdoor plans is looking good now. Then a break on Tues with our next system / upper low coming in later Wed thru the end of the week. Perhaps into Halloween Weekend also if the blocking is correct. Quite an active period ahead folks.

[tpweather]

The only change to make to the forecast would be due to a further north track of our next system, I think showers are likely Sat night into Sun morning with the warm front. Then a break Sun afternoon (windy and warm) but I think we'll see some dry time too. Then more action Sun night and Mon with the actual cold frontal passage. I think the timing I have posted here for those with outdoor plans is looking good now. Then a break on Tues with our next system / upper low coming in later Wed thru the end of the week. Perhaps into Halloween Weekend also if the blocking is correct. Quite an active period ahead folks.

Hey Les I agree with your post and the further north track. I still believe though on Sunday as the warm front moves this way their is going to be a big temp contrast like I have mentioned between say Louisville and Columbus. Example would be at 1pm Sunday Louisville could be sitting at 74 while Columbus at 54 with rain. Again that warm front will head north and even folks in the I-70 area will see temps rise later in the day and several hours of dry weather before rain picks up overnight Sunday into Monday. Another thing to watch is severe weather west of here on Sunday. Tons of moist warm air moving into the system and so far its been an active severe fall season and that looks to continue. Will we getting any severe here is a much tougher question and timing is not really that good but this can lead to an uptick in rainfall especially Monday morning between say 4am-10a. Later next week will be even busier for us weather nuts.

[tron777]

The only change to make to the forecast would be due to a further north track of our next system, I think showers are likely Sat night into Sun morning with the warm front. Then a break Sun afternoon (windy and warm) but I think we'll see some dry time too. Then more action Sun night and Mon with the actual cold frontal passage. I think the timing I have posted here for those with outdoor plans is looking good now. Then a break on Tues with our next system / upper low coming in later Wed thru the end of the week. Perhaps into Halloween Weekend also if the blocking is correct. Quite an active period ahead folks.

Hey Les I agree with your post and the further north track. I still believe though on Sunday as the warm front moves this way their is going to be a big temp contrast like I have mentioned between say Louisville and Columbus. Example would be at 1pm Sunday Louisville could be sitting at 74 while Columbus at 54 with rain. Again that warm front will head north and even folks in the I-70 area will see temps rise later in the day and several hours of dry weather before rain picks up overnight Sunday into Monday. Another thing to watch is severe weather west of here on Sunday. Tons of moist warm air moving into the system and so far its been an active severe fall season and that looks to continue. Will we getting any severe here is a much tougher question and timing is not really that good but this can lead to an uptick in rainfall especially Monday morning between say 4am-10a. Later next week will be even busier for us weather nuts.

Absolutely Tim. We should start to see the temp contrast develop on Sat, later in the day then on Sunday pretty much as you have described. We're still on the same page here for sure.

[cloudy72]

Yes - looks like quite the temp battle on Sunday!

[tron777]

Thanks Mike... a perfect illustration of what we're talking about here.