Rocktober 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Models have backed off on the chances to see any frost(cvg) for October, unless a last day cold front can deliver, Not surprising with the trough in the west dominating the last 10 days of the month

I think if we don't see one by 11/7 ILN cancels the frost / freeze program anyway until Spring. That has happened before. I just can't remember when.

[tron777]

Holy updraft Batperson!!!

All Hail Australia. Yesterday.... While many of the stones measured 12 to 14cm (4.7 to 5.5 inches) in diameter, An image had been sent to the BoM’s Queensland office allowing them to verify the 16cm (6.3 inches) reading

And how'd those solar panels work out for you ,Mate.

Holy smokes! Did you see a pic with that? If so, please share it with us. I'd love to see what a 6.3" hail stone (even if it's not official) looks like.

[tron777]

Hey Tim... good morning! Read your post of course on the previous page and agree that rainfall amounts look light until we get to the Sun / Mon timeframe. Track of that warm front is critical. Folks along and S of the river are favored for the best rains and even the heaviest will probably be down in LOU's forecast area. That can change of course, like the 6Z GFS bringing the rains further north for us and I-70. Then you have the Euro which has little rain with the warm front and brings in the better rains Tues of next week. Model chaos is very high right now as you would expect in the Fall.

[Bgoney]

Holy updraft Batperson!!!

All Hail Australia. Yesterday.... While many of the stones measured 12 to 14cm (4.7 to 5.5 inches) in diameter, An image had been sent to the BoM’s Queensland office allowing them to verify the 16cm (6.3 inches) reading

And how'd those solar panels work out for you ,Mate.

Holy smokes! Did you see a pic with that? If so, please share it with us. I'd love to see what a 6.3" hail stone (even if it's not official) looks like.

20211020_065012.jpg

Screenshot_20211020-065133_YouTube.jpg

20211020_065225.jpg

[tron777]

Wow! That is incredible! I've seen pics of 4" hailstones in our country a couple of times but that takes the cake right there.

[tron777]

46 at CVG this morning for the low, 44 here.

EDIT: CVG dropped to 45 officially.

[cloudy72]

44 here as well! Happy Hump Day!

[Bgoney]

EU showing a 947mb low off the NW coast. Probably overdone a bit, but regardless, if this moves closer to the coast than expected, 100+ mph gusts would occur along the coastal mtns

1781756860_ECARMatey.png.277abe182e32a3afde243e6ee149a03b.png

[tron777]

BG Blog:

https://www.wave3.com/2021/10/20/goode- ... blog-1020/

[tpweather]

EU showing a 947mb low off the NW coast. Probably overdone a bit, but regardless, if this moves closer to the coast than expected, 100+ mph gusts would occur along the coastal mtns


1781756860_ECARMatey.png.277abe182e32a3afde243e6ee149a03b.png

I agree may be a little overdone but they can get some serious winds near the coast with these kind of storms. Speaking of windy I expect a blustery day on Thursday and again next week with so much going on its going to be windy and hopefully my leaves blow into my neighbors yard lol. Next week at this moment is a forecasting headache with several pieces of energy just hanging out and do they remain separate or can two combine to form a bigger storm. Getting very active to say the least but at least this has been expected on this forum.

[tron777]

EU showing a 947mb low off the NW coast. Probably overdone a bit, but regardless, if this moves closer to the coast than expected, 100+ mph gusts would occur along the coastal mtns


1781756860_ECARMatey.png.277abe182e32a3afde243e6ee149a03b.png

I agree may be a little overdone but they can get some serious winds near the coast with these kind of storms. Speaking of windy I expect a blustery day on Thursday and again next week with so much going on its going to be windy and hopefully my leaves blow into my neighbors yard lol. Next week at this moment is a forecasting headache with several pieces of energy just hanging out and do they remain separate or can two combine to form a bigger storm. Getting very active to say the least but at least this has been expected on this forum.

My luck is never that good. I usually get everyone else's leaves plus my own. Agree on the pattern becoming more active and I think it starts Sun / Mon.

[tpweather]

I can always find something to talk about with the weather and this post is in regards to overnight Friday. Friday itself looks to rather cloudy and cool and may see temps never make it out of the 50's. Overnight into early Saturday morning is key and one where a bust can occur easily with temps. If we stay cloudy I expect temps probably get into the 44-46 range but if we clear and winds die down I can see where we get into the 36-38 range. Way to early and will need to see how things are progressing on Friday.

[tron777]

I can always find something to talk about with the weather and this post is in regards to overnight Friday. Friday itself looks to rather cloudy and cool and may see temps never make it out of the 50's. Overnight into early Saturday morning is key and one where a bust can occur easily with temps. If we stay cloudy I expect temps probably get into the 44-46 range but if we clear and winds die down I can see where we get into the 36-38 range. Way to early and will need to see how things are progressing on Friday.

If the new GFS run is right, we'll be cloudy Fri night with a weak shortwave moving thru and about a 20% chance of a shower N of the river.

[tron777]

Wow... if the GFS is right, we get rain on Sunday with the warm front, then the front stalls over Cincy Sun night into Mon for more heavy rain. That's a new look with this system instead of the usual progressive look we typically get from the GFS. 1.77" at CVG on this run for Sun and Mon combined. If correct, we'd see two days of rain, clouds, and highs in the 50s.

[tpweather]

Wow... if the GFS is right, we get rain on Sunday with the warm front, then the front stalls over Cincy Sun night into Mon for more heavy rain. That's a new look with this system instead of the usual progressive look we typically get from the GFS. 1.77" at CVG on this run for Sun and Mon combined. If correct, we'd see two days of rain, clouds, and highs in the 50s.

Not saying this is correct Les but the pattern sure has a look that this set up could happen. Believe their will be a big temp difference say within a few hundred miles and if you get in the correct place I can see quite bit of rain and temps in the 50's. This is sort of what I was seeing earlier but could not find a model that was in my direction so maybe the gfs is onto something lol.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is more progressive with this system for the weekend / next week. We get the warm front on Sunday esp into Sun night with about a third of an inch of rain at CVG. Then we are dry sometime Sun night into early Monday. Then the low / front gets closer late Monday into Tues for another round of rain and t-storms. So the GFS and Euro are not in agreement at all with the forecast from Sunday into early next week. We could have 50s and rain Sun and Mon like the GFS or have the 60s and some rain later on Sun, then probably the 50s to low 60s depending on timing on Mon before the next round of rain hits thereafter. Love these forecasting headaches, don't you? The pattern is looking active, we can all agree on that. What form these systems take and their timing is the issue. This will of course impact POPS and temps.

[tron777]

Hey Tim... I think your call of highs staying in the 50s for Friday is going to be correct. A few showers upcoming with the cold front on Thursday then we stay cloudy and cool with the wrap around moisture in cyclonic flow on Friday. Can't rule out a spotty shower either. Better on Saturday, should be in the 60 to 64 degree range I'd say then we watch to see how Sunday into early next week shapes up. Looks fairly active next week too.

[tpweather]

Hey Tim... I think your call of highs staying in the 50s for Friday is going to be correct. A few showers upcoming with the cold front on Thursday then we stay cloudy and cool with the wrap around moisture in cyclonic flow on Friday. Can't rule out a spotty shower either. Better on Saturday, should be in the 60 to 64 degree range I'd say then we watch to see how Sunday into early next week shapes up. Looks fairly active next week too.

Hey Les I believe you are correct as we have the calm before the storm. I believe next week is going to be a forecasting headache because just a few hundred miles can make a huge difference. I just like getting some of the forecasting bugs out of the way and sometimes patterns will develop that can continue into the winter season.

[tron777]

Hey Tim... I think your call of highs staying in the 50s for Friday is going to be correct. A few showers upcoming with the cold front on Thursday then we stay cloudy and cool with the wrap around moisture in cyclonic flow on Friday. Can't rule out a spotty shower either. Better on Saturday, should be in the 60 to 64 degree range I'd say then we watch to see how Sunday into early next week shapes up. Looks fairly active next week too.

Hey Les I believe you are correct as we have the calm before the storm. I believe next week is going to be a forecasting headache because just a few hundred miles can make a huge difference. I just like getting some of the forecasting bugs out of the way and sometimes patterns will develop that can continue into the winter season.

That about sums it up Tim. Active and a forecasting headache. Better then being bored I suppose. The 18Z GFS is like the 12Z run which I posted about earlier with regards to Sun and Mon. The difference between the GFS and Euro are that the GFS has the Canadian high stronger and further to the south which is why the front stalls. Euro is further to the north and much weaker with that high so thus, a different and more progressive solution. As usual, we shall see!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and nice mild start to the day. Rain today will be light at best and the major player will be some gusty winds later today. Friday still looks like a early November day with highs in the 50's and some light rain or drizzle. Saturday is the pick day with temps probably in the 62-65 range and the morning lows are still up for grabs because if we clear out early enough and light winds would not be surprised to see some upper 30's but if the clouds and wind hang around then mid 40's. Sunday is interesting as a warm surge of air is moving this way only to put on the brakes somewhere. Still believe its a day where temps can be 20 degrees apart say from Louisville which could be in the mid 70's and Columbus in the mid 50's. Of course with that big of a difference in temps expect rain north of the warm front. Will watch this carefully over the next few days and try to pinpoint where the warm front will be located. Next week looks very busy and the period between the 29th and 31st could be very much like mid-November with a storm and more details on that as we get closer. Getting very busy in the weather department and try to get up to speed on the forecasting skills and of course the folks on here do a great job

[tron777]

Good morning all! Tim... great post and really don't have much to add to what you've said. I'd love to see a system over the winter time coming in like Sun / Mon with that warm surge of air (and hopefully the big high to the north would keep us in the cold air). Would be a heck of a snow event with overrunning moisture and easterly flow at the surface. But it's Rocktober so it'll of course be rain.

[tpweather]

Good morning all! Tim... great post and really don't have much to add to what you've said. I'd love to see a system over the winter time coming in like Sun / Mon with that warm surge of air (and hopefully the big high to the north would keep us in the cold air). Would be a heck of a snow event with overrunning moisture and easterly flow at the surface. But it's Rocktober so it'll of course be rain.

Good Morning Les! Would be nice if it was mid-December but hopefully we will see this set up often this winter.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Tim... great post and really don't have much to add to what you've said. I'd love to see a system over the winter time coming in like Sun / Mon with that warm surge of air (and hopefully the big high to the north would keep us in the cold air). Would be a heck of a snow event with overrunning moisture and easterly flow at the surface. But it's Rocktober so it'll of course be rain.

Good Morning Les! Would be nice if it was mid-December but hopefully we will see this set up often this winter.

For sure... also I foresee a lot of upper lows / cut off low possibilities too if the blocking can continue.

[Bgoney]

The big storm in the west is still expected to stay off-shore this weekend keeping the most damaging winds away . Still expect 60-90mph gusts in the mtns. The better news is it is still going g to be an AR event and most likely record breaking for October in many areas. From NOAA:

One of the strongest October Atmospheric River events in recent memory will impact the Coastal Western United States this weekend. Recently upgraded to Category 5(!) AR status, it's not out of the question for up to 100" of snow to fall in the Sierras; 5-15" of rain elsewhere.

[MVWxObserver]

----