Rocktober 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Severe threat was low, pretty much what we expected. We will see more rain overnight which will end very early Sat morning. Probably around 6am for Metro Cincy is my guess on that. Look for the wind to pick up tonight ahead of the front and continue to blow behind it all day tomorrow. Expecting W to NW winds tomorrow with gusts to 25 mph possible. Winds will begin to diminish Sat night. Should be in the Low 60s or so then fall thru the 50s tomorrow. Low 40s for Sun morning. U30s to around 40 perhaps in rural locations. I don't think any frost will occur due to the winds and temps aren't really cold enough either. We will see some sunshine on Sat. First in the west, later in the east. Sunny all areas Sunday.

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

1942 6 NNE CLYDE SANDUSKY OH 4139 8293 THIS WEAK TORNADO STARTED JUST ABOUT 300 FEET WEST OF N VICKERY ROAD AND 1200 FEET NORTH OF WHITMORE ROAD. THIS TORNADO MOVED GENERALLY FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST. (CLE)

2040 UNK 1 WNW CADIZ TRIGG KY 3687 8783 A TREE FELL ON A POWER LINE AND BROUGHT DOWN 3 POLES ALONG MARTINDALE DRIVE. REPORT FROM PRECC. (PAH)

2106 UNK 4 W HOPKINSVILLE CHRISTIAN KY 3686 8756 TREES DOWN AT HIGHWAY 272 AND PETSCH LANE. (PAH)

2107 UNK 5 NW HOPKINSVILLE CHRISTIAN KY 3691 8756 TREES DOWN AT THE 5 MILE MARKER OF PRINCETON RD. (PAH)

2108 UNK HOPKINSVILLE CHRISTIAN KY 3686 8750 TREES DOWN AROUND THE 2500 BLOCK OF COX MILL ROAD. (PAH)

0022 UNK 5 WNW EVANSVILLE VANDERBURGH IN 3801 8763 LARGE TREE ON A HOUSE AND ELECTRICAL WIRES DOWN. (PAH)

0110 3 SSE GENTRYVILLE SPENCER IN 3807 8702 PATH LENGTH 1.1 MILES. SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED IN THE LOCATION OF COUNTY ROAD 1250N AND THE RAILROAD TRACKS ... ABOUT 1 MILE WEST OF HWY 231. (PAH)

0110 UNK 3 SSW GENTRYVILLE SPENCER IN 3807 8705 TREES DOWN IN THE AREA OF HWY 62 AND COUNTY ROAD 1250. ELECTRICAL LINES DOWN IN THE AREA AS WELL. (PAH)

0215 1 NW BLUE RIVER WASHINGTON IN 3854 8594 VERY BRIEF EF0 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WITH PEAK WINDS OF 70-75 MPH. ON THE GROUND ONLY FOR 0.1 MILES WITH A WIDTH OF 60-70 YARDS. (LMK)

0216 UNK 1 NNW BLUE RIVER WASHINGTON IN 3854 8594 REPORT OF WIRES AND TREE BRANCHES DOWN ON A HOUSE ALONG THE 8000 BLOCK OF E LAKESIDE DR. (LMK)

0240 1 W LEXINGTON SCOTT IN 3865 8564 BRIEF EF0 TORNADO WITH PEAK WINDS OF 80 MPH. IT WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 0.6 MILES WITH A PATH WIDTH PEAKING AT 75 YARDS. (LMK)

0241 UNK LEXINGTON SCOTT IN 3865 8562 15 TO 20 TREES REPORTED DOWN ON POPLAR STREET. (LMK)

0241 UNK LEXINGTON SCOTT IN 3865 8563 A TREE FELL ACROSS A VEHICLE IN LEXINGTON. (LMK)

0306 UNK 2 SW BURLINGTON BOONE KY 3900 8475 TREE DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

0331 UNK 5 SSE ERLANGER KENTON KY 3893 8456 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN FROM POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

0333 UNK 5 WSW ALEXANDRIA KENTON KY 3893 8446 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN FROM POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

0338 UNK 3 SW INDEPENDENCE KENTON KY 3892 8458 SEVERAL TREE LIMBS DOWNED ALONG BANKLICK RD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

0500 UNK 2 W HILLSBORO HIGHLAND OH 3920 8365 TREES DOWN FROM PROBABLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

0504 UNK 5 NE HILLSBORO HIGHLAND OH 3926 8356 TREES DOWN FROM PROBABLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

0505 UNK 5 NE HILLSBORO HIGHLAND OH 3925 8356 GARAGE AND SHED DAMAGED FROM PROBABLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

0529 UNK 5 ESE GREENFIELD ROSS OH 3934 8331 SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES DAMAGED ALONG STEWART STREET NEAR MAIN STREET IN SOUTH SALEM. WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE IN THE AREA. PROBABLE TORNADO. (ILN)

0544 UNK 5 S ERLANGER KENTON KY 3894 8459 NUMEROUS LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. (ILN)

0544 UNK 4 W ANDERSONVILLE ROSS OH 3943 8309 NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN. 25 ACRES OF CORN FLATTENED. (ILN)

0558 UNK 2 WNW KINGSTON PICKAWAY OH 3949 8295 ROOF REMOVED FROM HOME ... ALONG WITH NUMEROUS TREES DOWN FROM PROBABLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

0610 UNK 3 SW TARLTON PICKAWAY OH 3952 8282 HOUSE DAMAGED ON SHOEMAKER RD (ILN)

0615 UNK TARLTON PICKAWAY OH 3956 8278 MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER POLES DOWNED. (ILN)

0631 UNK 4 WSW LANCASTER FAIRFIELD OH 3969 8266 2 TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

0635 UNK SUGAR GROVE FAIRFIELD OH 3963 8255 SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES DOWNED IN SUGAR GROVE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

0751 UNK 3 S NEW CONCORD MUSKINGUM OH 3995 8174 TREES DOWN (PBZ)

0858 UNK 2 SSW HANOVER HARRISON OH 4034 8108 A COUPLE TREES DOWN ON LOWER CLEARFORK ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR. (PBZ)

[cloudy72]

0.72” here last night and this morning

[tron777]

Looks like there were a few damage reports from last night. Isolated though. I've heard of one here in Burlington (wind damage), Kenton Co near Independence, a possible TOR there. ILN will probably do a damage survey to see if it was straight line winds or not. Another in Campbell Co. Two more N of Hillsboro in Highland Co. Some limbs down imby per the norm but nothing major occurred here. CVG picked up 1.29", 1.5" at the Mesonet site and 1.36" here.

Clouds should be moving out soon to leave us with some sunshine but continued winds out of the NW so it'll be chilly. Temps should stay in the 50s then start dropping into the 40s tonight. U30s in rural areas to L40s in the cities for overnight lows tonight. After the cool start, gorgeous sunshine and mid 60s for tomorrow. Mon - Wed looks beautiful with our next rain chance by Thurs. then another drop in temps.

[tpweather]

Looks like there were a few damage reports from last night. Isolated though. I've heard of one here in Burlington (wind damage), Kenton Co near Independence, a possible TOR there. ILN will probably do a damage survey to see if it was straight line winds or not. Another in Campbell Co. Two more N of Hillsboro in Highland Co. Some limbs down imby per the norm but nothing major occurred here. CVG picked up 1.29", 1.5" at the Mesonet site and 1.36" here.

Clouds should be moving out soon to leave us with some sunshine but continued winds out of the NW so it'll be chilly. Temps should stay in the 50s then start dropping into the 40s tonight. U30s in rural areas to L40s in the cities for overnight lows tonight. After the cool start, gorgeous sunshine and mid 60s for tomorrow. Mon - Wed looks beautiful with our next rain chance by Thurs. then another drop in temps.

Nice little storm last night though it was mainly heavy rain at my house their were some nice lightning strikes but few and far between. The winds though were strong but just for a short period. Les your forecast looks good and glad the models finally caught onto the cooler nighttime lows this weekend as they are just running behind in getting the temps correct. Next weekend the cold shot is even stronger than this weekend so getting that first frost is looking better and better even though a few outlying areas tomorrow morning could see a light frost away from structures plus the ground is moist and frost forms much easier on a lush and yes wet surface.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! I agree. Each cold shot should get cooler and cooler as time goes on. Also agree with the frost potential late next week / next weekend timeframe if we can get clear skies and calm winds at night. That's what we usually have to watch for in terms of frost formation. We know a northerly or easterly wind component keeps CVG and NKY warmer versus the rural areas.

[cloudy72]

Saw this on Twitter from last nights storms

[tron777]

I saw ILN post something on Facebook also with the velocity scan of the Highland Co storm also. Hopefully this link will work for you guys to see the animated GIF.

https://fb.watch/8GCeQcWu7s/

[tron777]

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
353 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021

DUE TO RECENT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA, THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE PLANS TO CONDUCT STORM DAMAGE SURVEYS LATER TODAY.

BASED ON PRELIMINARY DAMAGE REPORTS AND RADAR DATA, IT IS BELIEVED 
THAT TORNADOES WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMAGE NEAR SAMANTHA IN HIGHLAND 
COUNTY, OHIO AND NEAR SOUTH SALEM IN ROSS COUNTY, OHIO. WE WILL BE 
IN CONTACT WITH EMERGENCY MANAGERS FROM THESE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS 
OTHER AFFECTED COUNTIES, TO DETERMINE A SPECIFIC PLAN TO DAMAGE 
SURVEYS AS WELL AS ASSESS THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL SURVEYS IN OTHER 
LOCATIONS.

IF YOU HAVE OBSERVED ANY WEATHER-RELATED DAMAGE, PLEASE REPORT IT TO 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA SEVERE WEATHER REPORTING METHODS OR 
BY CALLING 937-383-0031. 

[MVWxObserver]

My Fri / Sat combo total was .68".

Currently 54 here in G'ville.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and the first time this season with temps in the 30's even at the CVG airport so would not be surprised to see some mid 30's reported in areas. Again long term models have not handled temps at all in the last 3 weeks or so. Way to warm on the highs and we are seeing last week at this time they showed mid-40's for low for today. A beautiful fall week in store with only a small chance of some rain late Wednesday or early Thursday but that chance is low. Next weekend another front moves in and no doubt by this time next Sunday many folks will probably be seeing some frost which is really close to the date you would expect the first frost.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Much cooler this morning as Tim mentioned. I busted, was going with 42 CVG / here and U30s for rural areas. 38 was the low imby this morning with frost on the rooftops. 39 at CVG and 41 at the Boone Co mesonet site. Cars were just wet and too warm for the grass. In rural areas, patchy frost would not surprise me. If you saw any, please post. Thanks!

Forecast for next week is pretty easy with no major systems coming other then the next front on Thurs then an upper level low for next weekend which is where the better frost threat should come from. 10/25 is CVG's avg date for the 1st 32 degree low of the season.

[tron777]

Severe wx summary from the boys: 6 tornadoes were confirmed. All in South Central Ohio. Wind damage reports everywhere else.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20211016

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 54 here in Greenville and progged to top out at around 64.

So far via ILN next Sat is looking dry.

[MVWxObserver]

For Sat 10/23 to Fri 10/29 ...

[tron777]

I'm not going 100% dry. We should see some showers with that front around Thursday. I don't see a lot of rain, currently going to forecast 0.25" or less but the threat for showers IMO is there. That will drop temps again towards Fri and next weekend with the upper low coming in next weekend, we'll have to see how that feature tracks to determine how cold we can get for frost potential.

[Bgoney]

Awesome pattern for the west and rockies over the next 10-14 days.

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

[tron777]

66 here today. Temps dropping fast with the dry air in place. I'm already down to 55. Should be another U30s to L40s type of morning. Gorgeous tomorrow with highs in the U60s.

[tron777]

39 here this morning currently. Gorgeous the next 3 days, a touch of rain, then another cool down once again towards the end of the week / next weekend.

[tron777]

40 officially at CVG this morning.

[tron777]

BG Blog Update: https://www.wave3.com/2021/10/18/goode- ... blog-1018/

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another wonderful day in store and really a nice next 3 days before the next system moves in. The mjo which we talk about quite often especially in the winter is back in the Circle of Death. What does that mean and usually the pattern is one where a typically normal pattern for the time of year is expected. So for us in late Oct that means some nice mild days and even warm ahead of a front then usually some rain and cooler behind the front for a few days. This looks dead on for the next 2 weeks. Where is the mjo expected to go after that is a key to a longer term forecast. Some models are showing this heading somewhere between phase 8-2. Early November is somewhat different than the true winter months of Dec-Feb and the difference is mainly in phase 2 where that can be a milder period for us while in the winter months phase 8-2 usually means a decent shot of getting some cold weather. Will need to watch this because late next week a decent storm looks to form and yes severe weather may be part of that but some really decent cold air with the system. Northern and Central Canada over the next 2 weeks look to get cold rather quickly after a very mild first half of October. This is good if you want to grab from a source that will be rather cold and maybe go below normal for those folks. Much more to go but the mjo is an important tool but there are other factors we much watch plus how strong is the mjo in a certain phase can play a big part in how warm or cold we may get and how stormy the pattern will be.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and what a beautiful day. Forecast is still looking good but the weather may be going downhill next Sunday and Monday. You get these pushes of cooler air and it tends to develop a bigger trough over the eastern USA. Timing is still something we need to watch but either Sunday or Monday could be a day where temps stay in the low 50's with light rain.