Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2021-2022

[tpweather]

Long Range EPS is looking interesting in early November. Watch this animation by Week 2 in Nov. If correct, flakes anyone???

Couple comments about this post. How much cold will have developed over the arctic regions by early November. I guess my question starts with how strong is the PV before early November which we know helps in creating the really cold air in the arctic regions. So if we get the set up we want how cold can we get is the question. I truly believe November especially the 2nd half of the month is going to be cooler than normal but if we get a cold outbreak how cold can we really get. I don't have answers for that at the moment and lets see how the next few weeks pan out.

[tron777]

From what I've seen, the PV could be at an all time low as far as its strength is concerned by late October. Most modeling I've seen continues to show a very weak PV. The question is going to be does the Gulf of Alaska low become a pain in our sides this winter for a mainly -PNA pattern (trough west, SE ridge for us) and if that happens, if we can maintain a -AO / -NAO for blocking in the arctic, that will offset this some and keep the SE ridge at bay. A -PNA pattern is fine as it keeps the storminess coming, but you've got to have some help up top also. I'm starting to think that winter comes early for Nov / Dec and we begin to moderate in Jan with a warm Feb. Winter roars back in March then we're on to spring thereafter. That is kind of my current thoughts. We're also watching the strength of the Nina. I am becoming concerned with that. A moderate Nina is looking more and more likely vs a weak one so we're in uncharted territory there. We'll have to see where the coolest SST's are found. A basin wide event, I think we can do okay, versus seeing a Central based event (which is what is was looking like a few weeks ago). Lots to keep our eye on as always.

[Bgoney]

Screenshot_20211013-070034_Chrome.jpg

As long as the -QBO behaves , we should see sporadic blocking from time to time , especially early

[tron777]

Thanks for copying that over to this thread. Bgoney. Agreed... still thinking our best chances for wintry weather are going to be early in the season versus late. Only exception to that would be if the Nina peaks, say in December, and begins to collapse rapidly. Otherwise, I think we're on the right track.

[Bgoney]

arcoct2021-266-to-284.gif

The images above come from MASIE showing ice extents starting day 266, the lowest daily extent in 2021. Over the last 18 days, Arctic ice has grown by 1 Wadham (1M km2) to now exceed 6 Wadhams, about 276k km2 greater than the 14-year average for day 284. At the bottom center Barents Sea ice reaches out to Iceland. Svalbard bottom right becomes encircled by ice. East Siberian Sea top right has ice connecting to the shore. Top center Beaufort and Chukchi seas are also adding ice rapidly.

The ice recovery since September minimum is shown in the graph below.

arctic2021284.png

[tron777]

Fantastic news with regards to the build up of cold air. Just have to wait and see where it goes of course.

[dce]

JB is still touting an early start to winter. He definitely has the analogs to back it up. As always, time will tell.

[tron777]

1950-1951 was a great winter here. Remember the App Snow Storm of Nov 1950 around Thanksgiving? Oct was very warm that year before flipping to cold. I remember Dec of 1989 being the coldest on record for Cincinnati and we had a 7" snow storm as well. Several night in the -20s too. Unfortunately, that was a very strong Nina and by Jan1 of 1990 winter was over and we were 50s and rain for the rest of the winter. Lots of unknowns right now for sure and this winter could go either way IMO at this point. The only thing I have gained confidence on is the early start.

[dce]

1950-1951 was a great winter here. Remember the App Snow Storm of Nov 1950 around Thanksgiving? Oct was very warm that year before flipping to cold. I remember Dec of 1989 being the coldest on record for Cincinnati and we had a 7" snow storm as well. Several night in the -20s too. Unfortunately, that was a very strong Nina and by Jan1 of 1990 winter was over and we were 50s and rain for the rest of the winter. Lots of unknowns right now for sure and this winter could go either way IMO at this point. The only thing I have gained confidence on is the early start.

I will add to this, some of us can remember Oct. 19th, 1989. 5-6+ inches of snow in western Ohio and much of Indiana and southern Michigan. One of, if not the most, unusual snowstorms we have seen around here.

[tron777]

1950-1951 was a great winter here. Remember the App Snow Storm of Nov 1950 around Thanksgiving? Oct was very warm that year before flipping to cold. I remember Dec of 1989 being the coldest on record for Cincinnati and we had a 7" snow storm as well. Several night in the -20s too. Unfortunately, that was a very strong Nina and by Jan1 of 1990 winter was over and we were 50s and rain for the rest of the winter. Lots of unknowns right now for sure and this winter could go either way IMO at this point. The only thing I have gained confidence on is the early start.

I will add to this, some of us can remember Oct. 19th, 1989. 5-6+ inches of snow in western Ohio and much of Indiana and southern Michigan. One of, if not the most, unusual snowstorms we have seen around here.

D'oh! I can't believe I forgot to post that also. Thanks Doug!! That storm was (and still is) the earliest accumulating snowfall on record for Cincinnati. The closed upper low that produced the snow for the OV dumped 8-10" over portions of Central and Northern IN.

[snowbo]

1950-1951 was a great winter here. Remember the App Snow Storm of Nov 1950 around Thanksgiving? Oct was very warm that year before flipping to cold. I remember Dec of 1989 being the coldest on record for Cincinnati and we had a 7" snow storm as well. Several night in the -20s too. Unfortunately, that was a very strong Nina and by Jan1 of 1990 winter was over and we were 50s and rain for the rest of the winter. Lots of unknowns right now for sure and this winter could go either way IMO at this point. The only thing I have gained confidence on is the early start.

I will add to this, some of us can remember Oct. 19th, 1989. 5-6+ inches of snow in western Ohio and much of Indiana and southern Michigan. One of, if not the most, unusual snowstorms we have seen around here.

D'oh! I can't believe I forgot to post that also. Thanks Doug!! That storm was (and still is) the earliest accumulating snowfall on record for Cincinnati. The closed upper low that produced the snow for the OV dumped 8-10" over portions of Central and Northern IN.

I'll never forget the sound of breaking tree limbs from the heavy, wet snow!

[tron777]

1950-1951 was a great winter here. Remember the App Snow Storm of Nov 1950 around Thanksgiving? Oct was very warm that year before flipping to cold. I remember Dec of 1989 being the coldest on record for Cincinnati and we had a 7" snow storm as well. Several night in the -20s too. Unfortunately, that was a very strong Nina and by Jan1 of 1990 winter was over and we were 50s and rain for the rest of the winter. Lots of unknowns right now for sure and this winter could go either way IMO at this point. The only thing I have gained confidence on is the early start.

I will add to this, some of us can remember Oct. 19th, 1989. 5-6+ inches of snow in western Ohio and much of Indiana and southern Michigan. One of, if not the most, unusual snowstorms we have seen around here.

D'oh! I can't believe I forgot to post that also. Thanks Doug!! That storm was (and still is) the earliest accumulating snowfall on record for Cincinnati. The closed upper low that produced the snow for the OV dumped 8-10" over portions of Central and Northern IN.

I'll never forget the sound of breaking tree limbs from the heavy, wet snow!

Same here. Bo! Oct of 1989, Oct of 1993 as well had a similar impact. Lastly, the ice storm just a few years ago in mid Nov of 2018 featured some of the worst tree damage in my hood that I have ever seen. No event that I have witnessed has come close since. Not even Ike in Sept of 2008 caused as much tree damage at my location as the 2018 ice storm did. One for the memory bank for sure!

[dce]

1950-1951 was a great winter here. Remember the App Snow Storm of Nov 1950 around Thanksgiving? Oct was very warm that year before flipping to cold. I remember Dec of 1989 being the coldest on record for Cincinnati and we had a 7" snow storm as well. Several night in the -20s too. Unfortunately, that was a very strong Nina and by Jan1 of 1990 winter was over and we were 50s and rain for the rest of the winter. Lots of unknowns right now for sure and this winter could go either way IMO at this point. The only thing I have gained confidence on is the early start.

I will add to this, some of us can remember Oct. 19th, 1989. 5-6+ inches of snow in western Ohio and much of Indiana and southern Michigan. One of, if not the most, unusual snowstorms we have seen around here.

D'oh! I can't believe I forgot to post that also. Thanks Doug!! That storm was (and still is) the earliest accumulating snowfall on record for Cincinnati. The closed upper low that produced the snow for the OV dumped 8-10" over portions of Central and Northern IN.

[tpweather]

Great Posts this morning concerning the long term. Love to have an early start to winter but would like for it too hold until Nov 22nd. That is when I return from SC. Leaving on Nov 5. The one thing I don't want is a big snow in the next 3 weeks with all the leaves still on the trees. Once the leaves fall and its past Nov 22nd then let the fun begin lol.

[Bgoney]

That 2018 November ice storm doesn't get props it deserves, damaged areas were sporadic, but where they occurred was disastrous

[tron777]

That 2018 November ice storm doesn't get props it deserves, damaged areas were sporadic, but where they occurred was disastrous

From what I experienced, the trees that had already dropped their leaves were fine. The late dropping ones like oaks for example, still were full of leaves, and really took a huge hit. I'll never forget the sounds of breaking branches and huge branches hitting the house. Thankfully no damage to the house. Lost a huge branch on my maple tree too and had my car been in the driveway at the time, it would have been totaled! Got lucky on that one for sure.

[tron777]

Great Posts this morning concerning the long term. Love to have an early start to winter but would like for it too hold until Nov 22nd. That is when I return from SC. Leaving on Nov 5. The one thing I don't want is a big snow in the next 3 weeks with all the leaves still on the trees. Once the leaves fall and its past Nov 22nd then let the fun begin lol.

Time for us to start thinking about the snowfall contest! I know we only avg an inch or two of snow for November at CVG, but this year I won't be surprised at all if we surpass that. Hopefully if we see anything in Rocktober, it'll just be flakes and won't cause any problems.

[cloudy72]

So lets add some excitement to the mix! Was scanning Twitter and saw an interesting tweet from Joe Bastardi from Weather Bell. Now I realize he can go off the deep end sometimes, but his knowledge of historical data, patterns and events is extraordinary. Here is an analog he posted to which he indicates the GEFS 10mb forecasts are showing for the upcoming month of December. One thing that pops out to me is 1977 being listed on here and we all know what happened that winter!! Also 1989. Let's hope this materializes!!

[tron777]

So lets add some excitement to the mix! Was scanning Twitter and saw an interesting tweet from Joe Bastardi from Weather Bell. Now I realize he can go off the deep end sometimes, but his knowledge of historical data, patterns and events is extraordinary. Here is an analog he posted to which he indicates the GEFS 10mb forecasts are showing for the upcoming month of December. One thing that pops out to me is 1977 being listed on here and we all know what happened that winter!! Also 1989. Let's hope this materializes!!

Larry Cosgrove also liked 1977 as an analog as well so I do find that interesting. For 1989, we won't have that outcome. That was a strong La Nina. I personally don't like that one as an analog. I can certainly see 1977 due to similar temp pattern since that's how this fall has currently gone (with regards to the warmth). I still like the idea of some November fun down the road and a nice December for us. I think the pattern starts to shift warmer by mid Jan and for Feb the cold will be focused out West with the SE Ridge for us. March looks cold to me so winter could have one last trick up its sleeve when many people will think that's it's over.

[cloudy72]

They also have 1995 in there, and I can't speak for here but in Pennsylvania '95-'96 was a winter for the ages in terms of snowfall.

[tron777]

They also have 1995 in there, and I can't speak for here but in Pennsylvania '95-'96 was a winter for the ages in terms of snowfall.

95-96 was good to us as well. 27" in Jan of 96 thanks to the 1996 Blizz. We were supposed to get flurries, maybe 1-2" and CVG got a foot. Sharp cut off for Indy, barely anything and higher amounts as one headed East. I wouldn't mind that winter again.

[MVWxObserver]

They also have 1995 in there, and I can't speak for here but in Pennsylvania '95-'96 was a winter for the ages in terms of snowfall.

I worked in maintenance at a Sleep Inn during the Blizzard of '96 in Roanoke Rapids, NC (near the VA border) along the I-95 corridor. The front lobby was packed wall to wall from the front desk to back toward the continental breakfast area with guests check-in at the height of the storm. Stayed overnight 2 nights during the storm as hotel employees got free lodging.

[tpweather]

Saw a place in Siberia and temp is -9 so we are heading towards winter.

[tron777]

Good evening folks,

I just wanted to post a brief summary and some thoughts about my thinking going into winter. We know a weak to mod Nina is likely. The indices look to be as follows:

-PDO
-QBO (Which continues to fall towards moderate)
-PNA

Wildcard: Can the -AO / -NAO we have seen a lot of continue? That would help so we don't get too warm for long periods of time thanks to the SE Ridge being suppressed. Would help with storm tracks too, less cutters as the jet undercuts the blocking up top. Would mean an active stormy winter too with the -PNA.

ENSO State: Weak to Mod La Nina - I don't believe it'll be Modiki (central based) like 2011-2012. I think this will be a more basin wide event. That is better news for cold vs it being central or west based. Also consider it's a 2nd year Nina. We've never had a second year Nina be stronger then the first. It has been moderate followed by a moderate once since 1950. It is unlikely that we'll have a strong Nina in other words. Could absolutely see it being high end weak or moderate though. Also it'll depend on when it collapses. Most models have it peaking in December then rapidly collapsing for 2nd half of winter.

To refresh everyone's memory of La Nina temps since 1950 for Strong, Moderate, and Weak events:

ENSO_LaNinaWintersSince1950_temp_maps_620.jpg

Notice that for most weak to mod events, we don't torch too often and it's usually avg to below avg in temps. For Storng Nina's, it usually isn't pretty. We usually torch. Even 1989-1990 as said before had the earliest snow on record in mid Rocktober and an awesome December, brutally cold and with snow too (coldest on record), it fell apart as the raging Nina took hold and we had a howling Pac Jet with tons of rain and mild temps in Jan for the rest of the winter. 1990 was a very wet year in fact. Winter was done when 1990 came around. It was literally that fast. I also don't expect a warm and almost snowless winter like 2011-2012 as I mentioned before.

Weak PV - I think this is very important. I think the cold air will be able to move. There's even a rare early SSW event going on right now as a matter of fact. But like all things in weather, it's the chaos theory so nothing is ever A + B = C. We don't yet know what impacts it'll have by mid November, if any. The warming needs to propagate from the stratosphere down into the troposphere for there to be any real impacts. Even then, we've seen all the cold go to Siberia and the PV wind up over there instead of it coming to North America. However, the past January SSW was absolutely a factor in that record setting cold / snow in Texas and our 2 week blitz that we had this past February. So sometimes they work, and sometimes they don't. All we can do is say yeah, one is going on, but we don't yet know if it'll impact the pattern.

MJO - Tough to predict here but if the convection can remain over the West Pac vs the Indian Ocean then the MJO will have a tendency to tour the cold phases more versus the warmer ones. All I can say about it at this point.

So get thinking about the snowfall contest. We've got about 2 weeks to get our guesses in and no one has entered yet. I hope this post gets more discussion going so that we can all try and make our best possible guesses.

[Bgoney]

Whew! Nice post Les .


Lots of early signs that look favorable for a descent start to winter. We always have to be on the lookout for that one overpowering anomaly that spoils the rest of the basket such as recent years ,ae, IOD,AO. ATM, neither of these look to spoil the bunch. LaNina looks to stay in check as you mentioned.. MJO has been a thorn in our winter behinds in recent years . Over the last month its been in the maritmes , which has been good for helping shutting down the tropical season during that period and hopefully gets that location out of its system for winter. -EPO of course is crucial for the OV , without it the advance of arctic air stays in the plains and midwest. Then there is the QBO which looks good atm , but needs to put the brakes on , I forget what year recently but a too -QBO bit us in the butt at that time. All things to keep an eye on course over the next 2-4 weeks