Rocktober 2021 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

2048 UNK 3 WSW SHEPARDSVILLE VIGO IN 3958 8746 A REPORT OF A 50 TO 60 FOOT TREE BLOWN DOWN FROM THUNDERSTORM WINDS WAS RECEIVED. LOCATION AND TIME IS APPROXIMATE. (IND)

2104 58 1 ESE ROCKVILLE PARKE IN 3976 8721 CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 1 ESE ROCKVILLE. RECORDED FROM PERSONAL WEATHER STATION OF A SPOTTER ... RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. (IND)

2107 UNK ATTICA FOUNTAIN IN 4029 8725 LARGE TREES AND LIMBS DOWN IN ATTICA. SOME ARE BLOCKING STREETS. TIME IS APPROXIMATED FROM RADAR VELOCITY COUPLET. (IND)

2121 100 3 W NEW MARKET MONTGOMERY IN 3995 8698 HAIL SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WERE FALLING AT 400 WEST AND 600 SOUTH. (IND)

2125 UNK 3 WSW PURDUE UNIVERSITY TIPPECANOE IN 4041 8696 REPORTS OF NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ALONG SOUTH NEWMAN ROAD WERE RECEIVED. TIME ESTIMATED VIA ASOS MAX WIND GUST REPORT. (IND)

2126 60 1 NW WEST LAFAYETTE TIPPECANOE IN 4046 8693 AT WLFI. (IND)

2142 UNK 5 W CHALMERS WHITE IN 4068 8696 TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS LARGE TREE ESTIMATED 3-4 FOOT DIAMETER BLOWN DOWN. (IWX)

2146 60 2 ENE REMINGTON JASPER IN 4077 8712 MESONET STATION IN048 1.7 E REMINGTON (INDOT). (LOT)

2154 64 2 WSW LAKE CICOTT CASS IN 4075 8656 (IWX)

2223 75 2 N TOTO STARKE IN 4129 8670 REPORT VIA SPOTTER NETWORK OF 74.6MPH WINDS. (IWX)

2235 58 4 ESE VALPARAISO PORTER IN 4145 8700 ASOS STATION KVPZ VALPARAISO AIRPORT. (LOT)

2301 UNK GRANGER ST. JOSEPH IN 4174 8614 PICTURE SHARED ON TWITTER OF LARGE TREE LIMB BLOWN OFF BOTTOM OF A TREE. ROT VISIBLE. (IWX)

2310 UNK 3 NE NORTH LIBERTY ST. JOSEPH IN 4157 8639 ST. JOSEPH CO FIRE REPORTS TREES DOWN. (IWX)

2310 UNK 2 WSW GULIVOIRE PARK ST. JOSEPH IN 4160 8628 ST. JOSEPH CO FIRE REPORTS TREES DOWN. (IWX)

2310 UNK 3 NW ROSELAND ST. JOSEPH IN 4174 8629 ST. JOSEPH CO FIRE REPORTS TREES DOWN. (IWX)

2311 UNK SOUTH BEND ST. JOSEPH IN 4168 8626 LARGE BRANCH OVER ROADWAY. (IWX)

[Bgoney]

Rockies snowstorm

The National Weather Service in Riverton issued a Winter Storm Warning for a significant portion of the Bighorn Basin until 11 p.m. Tuesday evening. It’s part of an immense winter storm that will smother Wyoming, Montana, and Colorado and threatens to dump several feet of snow across all three states
Overall, as much as 40 inches of snow is possible at the higher elevations of Montana and Colorado. And at least that much is anticipated in Wyoming.
“Some of the harshest winter conditions from this storm are expected to occur (in Wyoming.) Some of the heaviest snowfall accumulations are expected to reside somewhere near Wyoming’s Interstate 25 and U.S. Highways 16 and 26 corridors, where 1-2 feet of snow and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 40 inches are possible.”

Forecasts place the heaviest snow in the north-central part of Wyoming, specifically Buffalo and Sheridan. However, no part of Wyoming will be unaffected.

This snow will be accompanied by “hurricane-force” winds, mainly on Tuesday.
Once again, Eastern and Central Wyoming are expected to get the worst of the winds, but the Bighorn Basin will still endure wind gusts up to 35 miles per hour.

[young pup]

Oct 10th and I was sweating out there today. Bring on the cooler temps please. Models are showing maybe a nice snow event out west in a few days?????

Hey JP! Yep. The first major snow for the Rockies will occur this week. 5 more days then Fall is here finally for us!

Can't wait. Still running the a/c in the house and truck. Although, I did go for a drive to warm up the other night because the house was to cold. LOL

[tpweather]

Nice to see the storm in the Rockies. Yes they are getting a little late start out there but making up for it with this storm. These kind of storms can help in bringing in a new pattern and I believe that is true with this system. Will we hit 80 again this year or will it be next April till we see the next 80. Normally with the current pattern and the ground still with tons of vegetation I would say we would not hit 80 on Thursday but with a stronger storm to our northwest we may get close. I am going with 78 on Thursday. Btw the Euro has been horrible with temps over the past week so just something to look at this winter

[tron777]

Rockies snowstorm

I have been thru a few of those areas mentioned in the article you posted on my Western US trip a few years back. Gorgeous scenery and tough roads and that was back in mid Sept lol I couldn't imagine how it would look in a major snow storm. Wish I could be there to experience it. Yep, I am that crazy and that much of a snow weenie lol

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

Nice to see the storm in the Rockies. Yes they are getting a little late start out there but making up for it with this storm. These kind of storms can help in bringing in a new pattern and I believe that is true with this system. Will we hit 80 again this year or will it be next April till we see the next 80. Normally with the current pattern and the ground still with tons of vegetation I would say we would not hit 80 on Thursday but with a stronger storm to our northwest we may get close. I am going with 78 on Thursday. Btw the Euro has been horrible with temps over the past week so just something to look at this winter

Good evening Tim! Hopefully after this week, the 80s are finished until Spring. Can't wait until we see 60s for highs and 40s for lows which begins this weekend. It'll feel chilly since we've had the 70s and 80s for so long, and it is normal for this time of year. So we're not seeing very cold air at all with this change coming up. We're going from well above avg to slightly below avg to avg. Baby steps, right? I am okay with that!

[tron777]

A nice Tues in store behind the first system that weakened as it moved in. Anyone see any rain? CVG and myself got nothing. Maybe some of our IN posters did. Anyway, one more shot at the 80s possible on Thursday per ILN and if the front slows down because of Pamela in the East Pac, then ILN is correct. Best rain chances look to be Fri into Sat then hello Fall!

[cloudy72]

A nice Tues in store behind the first system that weakened as it moved in. Anyone see any rain? CVG and myself got nothing. Maybe some of our IN posters did. Anyway, one more shot at the 80s possible on Thursday per ILN and if the front slows down because of Pamela in the East Pac, then ILN is correct. Best rain chances look to be Fri into Sat then hello Fall!

Nothing here of course!

[tron777]

Nothing here of course!

I think rainfall amounts with this next system will be 0.50" or less without moisture from Pamela and if we do see some moisture from her, which is increasing on the models, then an inch would certainly be possible. It'll be interesting to watch this unfold in the coming days.

[tron777]

BG Blog: https://www.wave3.com/2021/10/12/goode- ... blog-1012/

[tron777]

This is long term for the GFS, but on today's run, finally seeing a couple of mornings showing up with temps in the mid to upper 30s. No idea if that will be correct this far away or if any light frost may occur but just something to keep an eye on. This is around the 10-20 - 10-23 time period. Watching that upper trough as well which is the feature that brings down the cooler air. Bulk of the cold air looks to pass over the Lakes, New England and SE Canada.

[tron777]

GFS also brings us less rainfall with our next system due to the low along the front (thanks Pamela) rides to far to our NW for the heavier totals. Meanwhile, the Euro has the low tracking much closer to us. Second run in a row where we do get heavy rains as a result. Which model will win the battle this go around? GFS is more progressive and has the low going thru IN and into Mich, while the Euro is also progressive now too but much further to the SE. The low tracks right up the OH river. Big difference between only getting 0.25" maybe 0.50" with t-storms versus 1-2" on the Euro.

[tron777]

A pleasant 76 here today. Look for the U70s tomorrow as the humidity increases again due to a warm front coming thru. Should remain dry with this feature. Then on Thurs, strong southerly flow should give us one last day of 80+. Thinking the low 80s are possible if the clouds don't ruin that. Rain / storms moving in after that and end Sat morning at this point should the progressive nature of the front hold true. Still need to watch where the leftovers of Pamela goes. Is this rain event minor, or does she inject moisture to make it a better soaking for more people? I have posted on the 12Z models earlier so see my above post if you missed that.

As has been well advertised, Fall is almost here and it should have some staying power. I truly think Thursday is our last chance at the 80s until next Spring. I hope I don't have to eat those words. Then, around the middle to later portion of next week, we'll need to watch our next shot of cool air as the next upper trough rolls into the picture, which I have briefly mentioned also in an afternoon post from earlier.

[tpweather]

GFS also brings us less rainfall with our next system due to the low along the front (thanks Pamela) rides to far to our NW for the heavier totals. Meanwhile, the Euro has the low tracking much closer to us. Second run in a row where we do get heavy rains as a result. Which model will win the battle this go around? GFS is more progressive and has the low going thru IN and into Mich, while the Euro is also progressive now too but much further to the SE. The low tracks right up the OH river. Big difference between only getting 0.25" maybe 0.50" with t-storms versus 1-2" on the Euro.

Good Evening Les and a beautiful day and another on Wednesday. Which model to believe for later Friday and early Saturday. Really comes down to how strong the High is over the Rockies. The Euro is stronger which forces the front further south and east than the gfs. Tell you the truth I am not sure on this one though leaning somewhat to the Euro but it may be a tad to far southeast. Will look at this more on Wednesday. Don't be surprise either Saturday or Sunday night to see a few upper 30's in those colder valleys. Will warm up again next week but low 70's look good before a bigger trough I believe should arrive late next week. Then maybe we will see some frost and with the amount of vegetation frost will form more easy than on a dry ground and that is why some years with a very dry fall frost will not form until we get in the upper 20's but years where is rather damp frost can form easily in the 36 or 38 degree range.

[tron777]

Good evening Tim! I am certainly interested in frost for later next week, As usual, it depends on how much cold air is thrown our way as well as the usual things like wind and cloud cover. Ground moisture shouldn't be a problem and agree with you on the green vegetation as well. The avg for CVG to hit a low of 32 or lower is Rocktober 25th so we're not far away at all and if we do see frost later next week, it's pretty much right on cue.

[tron777]

I'd also like to point out something that is often overlooked by a lot of people but official temps at NWS Reporting stations, like CVG for example are taken 5 feet off the ground. So if that temp registers 36 degrees, remember it's 5 feet up so temps at the ground still have to be at 32 for frost formation. This is why sometimes the thermometer only says 36 but we see frost on the grass for example. That is the reason why. Cold air is dense and settles at the ground level on clear, calm nights with good radiational cooling conditions as the atmosphere decouples. Yeah, it's 36 5 feet off the ground, but at the ground level it's 32 so thus frost. Hope this explanation make sense to any new folks on our forum who have often wondered why we can get frost at 36 degrees.

[Bgoney]

Blizzard warnings in the Rockies. Thundersnow and snowfall records going down. Nice!!!

[tron777]

Good morning all! Low to mid 50s across the area and a pleasant airmass too! We'll kiss that good bye once the warm front passes this afternoon to bring the humidity back into play. One last shot at the 80s Thurs then rain comes in esp for Friday ending Sat morning with falling temps thru the 60s all day long. We'll drop into the 40s for Sun morning as our fall temps roll in. We'll probably get back up into the low 70s or so by Tues of next week ahead of our next system which still holds a bit of uncertainty as far as any rain chances go as well as cold air.

[tron777]

Blizzard warnings in the Rockies. Thundersnow and snowfall records going down. Nice!!!

Yeah, it's been a doozy for the first one of the season. We'll see plenty more to come to build up the snowpack to our West and NW.

[tron777]

55 at CVG this morning, 54 here.

[cloudy72]

Dropped to 52 here this morning. SPC does have a marginal risk for us on Friday.....guess we will see. As you know I always put my expectations waaay low so I can be pleasantly surprised if something happens.

[tron777]

BG Blog Update: https://www.wave3.com/2021/10/13/goode- ... blog-1013/

Mike... agree. Not sold on that either. I think the timing of the front is overnight Fri / Sat morning which isn't good for severe wx.

[tron777]

Today's 12Z GFS shows the bulk of the rain / storms holding off until Fri afternoon. What we don't know is do we see AM showers or a lot of clouds before hand to limit the heating for instability. It is ok for the SPC to have the marginal risk out since the dynamics are going to be there. The instability is the big question mark. Frontal zone passage is still late Fri night / early Sat morning so while a lot of Sat will now be dry, we will have falling temps and windy conditions. Dry air should punch in for some sunshine though.

Fantasy range looked interesting with a piece of the PV dropping into the Great Lakes. Don't see that very often at all in late October. Pretty remarkable to even see this modeled. But with the weak PV and the -AO we've been seeing for a while, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Yes it's the fantasy GFS but the solution being shown today is actually believable. Not saying it will happen but I can see why it happens and it fits the pattern to be honest.