Rocktober 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Good morning folks... a summery weekend in store so get out and enjoy it! Same for most of next week. A small rain chance Mon night / early Tues but most should stay dry. Then, Thurs night / Fri (perhaps into Sat as well) of next week will be when that frontal system heads our way to usher in more normal mid Rocktober Temps. Rainfall chances and amounts TBD. GFS says yep to a nice soaking thanks to that East Pac tropical system providing extra moisture and the 0Z Euro is back to saying nope, just minimal rain chances. Just a wait and see thing to be honest.

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up .60" from Fri. Had a nice t-storm yesterday evening with some leaves blown on to our driveway from a neighbor's tree.

[Bgoney]

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 195
Issue Time: 2021 Oct 09 1829 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 10: None (Below G1) Oct 11: G2 (Moderate) Oct 12: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[tron777]

Good Sunday all! Mid 80s for today and low 80s for tomorrow on Columbus Day. No records for CVG with 89 set back in 1913 for today and 88 set back in 1963 for tomorrow.

Chance for isolated t-storms Monday night very early Tues otherwise increasing rain chances towards the end of next week can be expected. Rain chances continue into the early part of next weekend. Temps will fall from the 80s back into the U70s to near 80 for Tues - Thurs. 70s Fri and the 60s which is normal finally by next weekend.

That East Pac tropical system is forming now (see tropics forum for the details) and we still need to keep one eye open on some better moisture getting in here for Fri and Sat. Not all guidance agrees so just something to watch and nothing more for our local area.

Long Term... more cut off lows are showing up and cooler temps on the last few GFS runs and that is for like the last 7-10 days of the month. We shall see as we get closer in time.

[tpweather]

Good Sunday all! Mid 80s for today and low 80s for tomorrow on Columbus Day. No records for CVG with 89 set back in 1913 for today and 88 set back in 1963 for tomorrow.

Chance for isolated t-storms Monday night very early Tues otherwise increasing rain chances towards the end of next week can be expected. Rain chances continue into the early part of next weekend. Temps will fall from the 80s back into the U70s to near 80 for Tues - Thurs. 70s Fri and the 60s which is normal finally by next weekend.

That East Pac tropical system is forming now (see tropics forum for the details) and we still need to keep one eye open on some better moisture getting in here for Fri and Sat. Not all guidance agrees so just something to watch and nothing more for our local area.

Long Term... more cut off lows are showing up and cooler temps on the last few GFS runs and that is for like the last 7-10 days of the month. We shall see as we get closer in time.

Good Morning Les and another warm day in store. We do disagree on temps as I am going 81 for a high both days. Always hard to get into the mid 80's in mid-October unless the ground is dry and very low dews. I know there is a decent south wind but models have been too warm imo over the last week in terms of high temps. I will be at the Bengals game so hopefully some high clouds will help with the warmth. This week finally is the one where we start to turn things around and heads towards the autumn season most of us enjoy and that is temps in the 60's during the day and 40's at night.

[tron777]

Good Sunday all! Mid 80s for today and low 80s for tomorrow on Columbus Day. No records for CVG with 89 set back in 1913 for today and 88 set back in 1963 for tomorrow.

Chance for isolated t-storms Monday night very early Tues otherwise increasing rain chances towards the end of next week can be expected. Rain chances continue into the early part of next weekend. Temps will fall from the 80s back into the U70s to near 80 for Tues - Thurs. 70s Fri and the 60s which is normal finally by next weekend.

That East Pac tropical system is forming now (see tropics forum for the details) and we still need to keep one eye open on some better moisture getting in here for Fri and Sat. Not all guidance agrees so just something to watch and nothing more for our local area.

Long Term... more cut off lows are showing up and cooler temps on the last few GFS runs and that is for like the last 7-10 days of the month. We shall see as we get closer in time.

Good Morning Les and another warm day in store. We do disagree on temps as I am going 81 for a high both days. Always hard to get into the mid 80's in mid-October unless the ground is dry and very low dews. I know there is a decent south wind but models have been too warm imo over the last week in terms of high temps. I will be at the Bengals game so hopefully some high clouds will help with the warmth. This week finally is the one where we start to turn things around and heads towards the autumn season most of us enjoy and that is temps in the 60's during the day and 40's at night.

Good morning Tim ! Going to be a warm one on the field for today's game. It'll be a good test to see if they can stop Rodgers and the Cheeseheads. Already up to 71 imby and it's only 10:30 in the morning. Can't see how we won't get into the mid 80s down here esp when checking visible satellite. Wall to wall sunshine and the southerly breeze we're getting today should boost temps up rapidly.

[MVWxObserver]

WHO DEY!! Have fun at the game, Tim and family!

Prayerfully Les's Lions can finally get their 1st win of the season today!

Currently 72 here in G'ville and progged to top out around 84.

[tron777]

WHO DEY!! Have fun at the game, Tim and family!

Prayerfully Les's Lions can finally get their 1st win of the season today!

Currently 72 here in G'ville and progged to top out around 84.

Thank you Bro but I'm not holding my breath. The Vikings usually beat us.

[MVWxObserver]

A Slight Risk for much of IL and parts of IN and MI for Columbus Day.

[MVWxObserver]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073-OHZ034-035-042-043-051-060-110900-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Miami-Preble-
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana and West Central Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will be weakening as it moves
into the area Monday evening. However, this line may still have some
potential to produce a few strong to severe wind gusts.

$$

[tron777]

That will be a weakening line that will peter out for a lot of us. Higher severe risk absolutely is over IN to our west.

[MJSun]

Ok I'm done with 80s, cannot wait for the change in temps at the end if the week. Ugh.

[tron777]

Ok I'm done with 80s, cannot wait for the change in temps at the end if the week. Ugh.

5 more days to go starting tomorrow then we're back to seasonal temps. We can make it!

[MVWxObserver]

What a heart breaker as the Bengals lost by a field goal 25-22 in OT to the Pack!

Still was a great game and wasn't at least like a rout lop sider.

Currently 81 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Looks like 81 at CVG today Tim so you were right with the temps. 83 imby today. Really surprised CVG didn't get warmer with the strong southerly flow and lack of cloud cover.

[tpweather]

Looks like 81 at CVG today Tim so you were right with the temps. 83 imby today. Really surprised CVG didn't get warmer with the strong southerly flow and lack of cloud cover.

Hey Les it felt hotter at the game. I just believe models don't have a lot of info with this pattern in early-mid-Oct. Been wet and dew's are staying up for this time of year plus only so many hours where temps rise and this time of year by 2p or 3pm that is usually the high as a lower sun angle keeps it from rising to much after that time. Monday will have a stronger wind but that may be set off by more high level clouds.

[tron777]

Looks like 81 at CVG today Tim so you were right with the temps. 83 imby today. Really surprised CVG didn't get warmer with the strong southerly flow and lack of cloud cover.

Hey Les it felt hotter at the game. I just believe models don't have a lot of info with this pattern in early-mid-Oct. Been wet and dew's are staying up for this time of year plus only so many hours where temps rise and this time of year by 2p or 3pm that is usually the high as a lower sun angle keeps it from rising to much after that time. Monday will have a stronger wind but that may be set off by more high level clouds.

Today was supposed to be the warmest so that was another reason I called for what I called for. I am only going with the L80s tomorrow but that was my call for that day anyway a few days ago. I like U70s to around 80 or so thru Thurs then the 70s Fri with the 60s this coming weekend. Small rain chance Mon night or so then a small chance Thurs. I like a higher chance on Fri and Sat depending on the speed of the front and if some of Pamela's moisture gets involved. The jury is still out on that, but it might be gaining steam now that the system is finally developing in the East Pac as we speak.

[young pup]

Oct 10th and I was sweating out there today. Bring on the cooler temps please. Models are showing maybe a nice snow event out west in a few days?????

[tron777]

Oct 10th and I was sweating out there today. Bring on the cooler temps please. Models are showing maybe a nice snow event out west in a few days?????

Hey JP! Yep. The first major snow for the Rockies will occur this week. 5 more days then Fall is here finally for us!

[tron777]

Look for that weakening line of storms moving in here late this evening into the overnight hours. I wouldn't rule out strong to severe storms in Central IN but I think all of AV Country should be fine in that regard.

[tpweather]

Look for that weakening line of storms moving in here late this evening into the overnight hours. I wouldn't rule out strong to severe storms in Central IN but I think all of AV Country should be fine in that regard.

Good Morning and let the changes begin finally. Les your forecast looks good and yes by this time next week I would not be surprised to see a few upper 30's in the normally cold spots. Going to be a quick changes of color in the leaves as well.

[tron777]

Look for that weakening line of storms moving in here late this evening into the overnight hours. I wouldn't rule out strong to severe storms in Central IN but I think all of AV Country should be fine in that regard.

Good Morning and let the changes begin finally. Les your forecast looks good and yes by this time next week I would not be surprised to see a few upper 30's in the normally cold spots. Going to be a quick changes of color in the leaves as well.

Good morning Tim! I agree, the warmth has slowed the changing of the leaf process for sure. We'll peak in late Rocktober this year most likely as a result.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

81 today imby... Windy and sunny today. Got the grass cut again and some more leaves ground up. Cannot wait for the cooler wx to start slowing the grass down lol And to get those leaves changing too. We'll see what happens with regards to these storms weakening as they move in late this evening and tonight., 50 / 50 chance for us. Highest west, lowest east,