Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[tpweather]

Looking at the tropics and no doubt we have quiet down. The mjo is in phase 5 and probably going to 6 and this is not a great phase for the Atlantic. Probably the only chances you have will be with disturbed weather either off the southeast coast or gom that could form into something but still not a great chance at all. Busy season in the Atlantic and typhoon season in the pacific has been busier than last year but probably still somewhat below normal.

[tron777]

I agree that the Cape Verde season is about over, but I still think we'll see 1 or 2 more systems closer to home. Like the Caribbean or Gulf for example. Even off the SE Coast should be watched.

[tron777]

Watching one system off the SE Coast that has a 30% chance to develop.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[MVWxObserver]

Watching one system off the SE Coast that has a 30% chance to develop.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Now up to 50%, Bro.

[Bgoney]

GOM and the east coast filled with shear for the next 10-14 days , I don't think anything significant can develop

[tron777]

GOM and the east coast filled with shear for the next 10-14 days , I don't think anything significant can develop

It doesn't appear that the system off the SE Coast is going to do anything. Probs have been lowered to 30% again as a result of the shear. Still waiting to see if anything can get going the last week of the month.

[tron777]

We've got a new wave in the far Eastern ATL about 500 miles E of the Islands to keep one eye on. A 30% chance in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

ACE is sitting at 139.5 right now as we await to see if one or two more "home grown" systems can develop before the season comes to a close.

[tron777]

Is it over?

Ova.jpg

[tpweather]

Is it over?


Ova.jpg

Good Morning and yes the Atlantic season is over IMO. Stated last month that season is coming to an end rather quickly but why was the main question. Too much warmth and yes that can be a cause for the season to end early. Usually later in Sept until Nov the storms that form are due in part to decent cold fronts heading south and stalling in the GOM or off the East Coast. This Sept and early Oct those cold fronts were nowhere to be found and getting a system to develop was extremely hard.

[tron777]

It looks that way, Tim, but it wouldn't shock me to see one more system of the home grown variety. Agree that anything coming off of Africa or even by the Islands in the Eastern Caribbean, etc. That area is done. Look off the SE Coast, W. Caribbean or Gulf for anything further if it were to develop. Chances are low but not completely zero IMO.

[tpweather]

It looks that way, Tim, but it wouldn't shock me to see one more system of the home grown variety. Agree that anything coming off of Africa or even by the Islands in the Eastern Caribbean, etc. That area is done. Look off the SE Coast, W. Caribbean or Gulf for anything further if it were to develop. Chances are low but not completely zero IMO.

Hey Les and agree can never say never when it come to the weather but with the mjo in the COD that is usually a sign that tropical development is unlikely. Even with the Pacific having a uptick recently it sill is below normal for the season. Speaking of the MJO and will post more about that in the October weather discussion later today.

[tron777]

It looks that way, Tim, but it wouldn't shock me to see one more system of the home grown variety. Agree that anything coming off of Africa or even by the Islands in the Eastern Caribbean, etc. That area is done. Look off the SE Coast, W. Caribbean or Gulf for anything further if it were to develop. Chances are low but not completely zero IMO.

Hey Les and agree can never say never when it come to the weather but with the mjo in the COD that is usually a sign that tropical development is unlikely. Even with the Pacific having a uptick recently it sill is below normal for the season. Speaking of the MJO and will post more about that in the October weather discussion later today.

Sounds good Tim, looking forwards to your thoughts on that. Activity has been down in both Pacific basins. Agree there for sure. Only one tropical system on this Earth period going on right now and that's TS Namtheun in the West Pac.

[tron777]

Part of the severe Nor 'Easter has to do with a low over the Atlantic ocean about 200 miles off of Cape Cod. A 40% chance in the next 5 days of becoming a sub TS.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

That wave is still out there in the N ATL and has a 50-60% chance to develop.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

The N ATL wave has a 90% chance now... could become Wanda. We also have a 30% chance at a wave that has recently come off of Africa.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Sun Oct 31 2021

...WANDA MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 43.9W
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM W OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[tron777]

Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021

...WANDA WANDERING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WEST OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 43.0W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

[tron777]

TS Wanda is still out there, now fully tropical and not a subtropical system. Winds of 50 mph at this time.

HelpMeWanda.png

[tron777]

Wanda added on 5.7 to our ACE so the total ACE for the season is currently at 145.1

[Bgoney]

Lowest late season ace accumulation in nearly 30 years .

[tron777]

Lowest late season ace accumulation in nearly 30 years .

Yeah... I think the last time the season basically shut off like this was 1995 if I recall.

[tpweather]

Lowest late season ace accumulation in nearly 30 years .

I agree with this and you could see in late September that the season was going to be a dud at the end of the season. I do watch the mjo during Hurricane season and there are plenty of clues in terms of what phase the mjo is in and how strong and how the Atlantic tropical season plays out.

[tron777]

LOL @ the Fantasy 6Z GFS... it develops a TS in the Gulf and brings it into the FL Panhandle and AL / GA in late May. I guess it is that time of year again!

Here are the names for 2022 for the Atlantic Basin from the NHC:

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Martin
Nicole
Owen
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter

[cloudy72]

Believe it or not we have actually had at least one named storm pre-June 1 every year since 2014! Had two named storms in both 2016 (Alex/Bonnie) and 2020 (Arthur/Bertha). Alex in 2016 was the only hurricane the rest were tropical storms. Maybe we will see a repeat of 2016? LOL