West Pac Typhoon Season Discussion

[tron777]

Can we get another trough in mid to late October? Possible re-curving typhoon here.

wp2021.gif

[tron777]

abpwsair.jpg

[tron777]

Busy times ahead in the West Pac:

abpwsair.jpg

[tpweather]

abpwsair.jpg

Huge pickup Les. So far though none of those are re-curving which can help get a trough in the central and eastern USA.

[tron777]

abpwsair.jpg

Huge pickup Les. So far though none of those are re-curving which can help get a trough in the central and eastern USA.

The last one did re-curve actually, but it did nothing to change anything in the overall pattern. So I wanted to point out (esp to any new folks on our forum) that yeah, a lot of times that does kick off a pattern change, but it doesn't always work. To your point though Tim, yes. You're absolutely right. These systems should continue moving west.

[tron777]

abpwsair.jpg

See image above for your West Pac update. Two systems of interest as you can see. TS Kompasu is going to make landfall soon. The other one, TS Namtheun is moving north now and will curve to the NE soon. Not a strong system so the West Pac Typhoon rule won't apply here.

wp2321.gif

[tpweather]

abpwsair.jpg


See image above for your West Pac update. Two systems of interest as you can see. TS Kompasu is going to make landfall soon. The other one, TS Namtheun is moving north now and will curve to the NE soon. Not a strong system so the West Pac Typhoon rule won't apply here.


wp2321.gifI agree Les though I like seeing the system further north and this can tend to throw some milder air towards southwest Alaska next week.

[tron777]

I agree Les though I like seeing the system further north and this can tend to throw some milder air towards southwest Alaska next week.

I'd like to see that happen too, just not confident that a weak system can deliver that. But, it's really all about being able to merge with the polar westerlies.

[Bgoney]

It looks like all the activity in the west pac is eventually going to bring back the GOA/Western trough later this month , which would mean more -PNA and another warm up for us

[tron777]

It looks like all the activity in the west pac is eventually going to bring back the GOA/Western trough later this month , which would mean more -PNA and another warm up for us

Most likely. With the developing Nina, I expect a -PNA pattern more often then not anyway so we'll have to rely on blocking up top to assist with us getting cold. Really hope the EPO can go negative. I think it's more important then the NAO for us. AO should avg negative due to the weak PV.

[tron777]

TD 25W has developed in the West PAC and this system is likely to become the next typhoon of interest. It'll be one of those re-curving typhoons also, but as usual, it remains to be seen how the overall pattern may, or may not be impacted over the next couple of weeks.

wp2521.gif

[tpweather]

TD 25W has developed in the West PAC and this system is likely to become the next typhoon of interest. It'll be one of those re-curving typhoons also, but as usual, it remains to be seen how the overall pattern may, or may not be impacted over the next couple of weeks.


wp2521.gif

Les I agree in terms of changing the overall pattern. Just not sure the system is powerful enough to affect the pattern. The current system on the west coast though is a pattern changer and once that heads into the central and southern plains this storm will be causing weather problems across the eastern half of the country. My guess their will be some severe weather with that system in the southern plains but we are going to be too far north and rain looks like the best bet.

[tron777]

TD 25W has developed in the West PAC and this system is likely to become the next typhoon of interest. It'll be one of those re-curving typhoons also, but as usual, it remains to be seen how the overall pattern may, or may not be impacted over the next couple of weeks.


wp2521.gif

Les I agree in terms of changing the overall pattern. Just not sure the system is powerful enough to affect the pattern. The current system on the west coast though is a pattern changer and once that heads into the central and southern plains this storm will be causing weather problems across the eastern half of the country. My guess their will be some severe weather with that system in the southern plains but we are going to be too far north and rain looks like the best bet.

At this point Tim, I agree with everything you've said here.

[tron777]

TD 25W is now TS Malou. Might become a weak typhoon but otherwise, it looks to re-curve but doubtful it impacts the overall pattern since it's not an impressive system or anything.

TD 26 W is making landfall over SE Asia / Vietnam and will continue to move inland and weaken with time.

[tron777]

Malou is now a typhoon with winds around 98 mph. This one got a tad stronger then I expected and it should create another strong storm for the West in due time.

[tron777]

West Pac remains on the quiet side with only one invest to keep an eye on.

WestPac.jpg

[tron777]

A couple of Invests in the West Pac now with one showing a likelihood of further development.

abpwsair.jpg

[tron777]

TD 27 W is going to be the next system in the West PAC to watch.

wp2721.gif

[tron777]

Tropical Cyclone season around Australia has begun. Tropical Cyclone Tiffany as well as another TC 05 P.

abpwsair.jpg

[tron777]

Not too much going on this time of year but the West Pac has a little action going on with a TC affecting some of the Indo Islands to the NE of Aussie Land.

abpwsair.jpg

[tron777]

We finally have something cooking in the West PAC with Invest 97W. This wave is near the Philippines and is expected to slowly get going once it gets into the South China Sea.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt

[tron777]

West PAC starting to heat up with not only 97W, but 94A near the Arabian Sea.

abpwsair.jpg

[tron777]

94A has moved inland so it's off the map. Only watching 97W at this time.

[tron777]

97W now has a high chance for development. We also have one behind one now called 98W. A low chance currently of that one developing.

[tron777]

We have a TS and a TD now...

abpwsair.jpg