Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

Now TS Odette in the north Atlantic.

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

Now have TS Peter along with TD17.

[MVWxObserver]

Now along with TS Peter there is TS Rose.

[tron777]

Looking busy again with Peter and Rose out there. I'll post more later this week when I get caught up.

[tron777]

Peter and Rose look to be fish storms. So the next item of interest is the next wave coming off of Africa. An 80% chance in the next 5 days. I expect this one to probably become Sam and this might be the one in early October that threatens the East Coast and tries to merge with the next trough coming in to completely kiss summer like heat good bye and usher in Autumn for good. We will see how that looks later, but the point is the African Wave needs to be watched in the coming week to 10 days for potential trouble.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

Peter is now a TD and Rose won't be far behind. Still watching the African Wave, probably soon to become Sam. Models are correcting this one more to the south and west. I still say Sam has a shot and I wouldn't write this one off despite some models showing it a fish storm. I don't necessarily agree if the blocking high develops correctly over the Eastern Sea Board and Eastern Canada. We could be in trouble (East Coast should that blocking signature develop down the road. One to watch IMHO...

Otherwise, another wave , which won't bother anyone in the Northern ATL has a 40% chance in the next 5 days.

[MVWxObserver]

Rose has now downgraded back to a TD, too.

[tron777]

That wave in the North ATL has a 60% chance now in the next 5 days.

African wave at 100% - likely to be a TD or TS Sam at any time.

[tron777]

TD 18 now folks - Soon to be Sam and a major hurricane down the road.

Soon to be Sam.png

[tron777]

Track and Intensity Guidance for TD 18.

Tropical Speg Model Tracks.png

SamAKATD18IntensityGuidance.png

[tron777]

TS SAM to Become a Cane tomorrow.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sam Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SAM, THE 18TH NAMED
STORM OF THE SEASON...
...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 38.1W
ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

Sam forecast to be a major 'cane by this weekend!

[tron777]

Intensity forecast as of 5pm on Yosemite Sam!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 11.1N 39.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 11.5N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 11.9N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 12.6N 47.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 13.1N 48.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 13.7N 50.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 15.2N 52.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

[tron777]

Sam is now a hurricane with winds of 75 mph.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 11.5N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 11.7N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 12.1N 45.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 12.5N 47.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 12.9N 48.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 13.4N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 14.1N 51.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 15.9N 53.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 17.8N 56.6W 110 KT 125 MPH

[Bgoney]

Ace values in the mid 80s.. Sam will add meh, in the 30+- range. Long way to go to pass 150

[tron777]

Ace values in the mid 80s.. Sam will add meh, in the 30+- range. Long way to go to pass 150

I was expecting Larry to add more but the problem hasn't been the number of named storms but rather the quality and / or intensity / longevity of the storms. A month to go realistically but yes, a long way to test that ACE 150 Theory. I agree.

[tron777]

Sam is up to 85 moving W at 12.

Subtropical storm Teresa is born in the N ATL with winds of 45 mph. Fish storm, short life. BS.

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Teresa Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021
500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021

...SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 64.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[tron777]

Sam is up to 110 now.

INIT 25/0900Z 12.8N 46.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 13.1N 48.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 13.5N 49.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 14.0N 50.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 14.7N 51.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 15.4N 52.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 16.3N 53.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 18.0N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 20.1N 59.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

Teresa still has winds of 40 and will remain a fish storm and a weak system.

[tron777]

Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021

...SMALL BUT DANGEROUS SAM NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 47.6W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35

SamInfra.jpg

SamVis.jpg

[MVWxObserver]

Thankfully, from what I saw on the spaghetti models earlier today on TWC that Sam is forecast to miss the CONUS.

[tron777]

Atlantic Canada, however, may not.