September 2021 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

Was nothing, not even a trace in my gauge from last night.

Thankful for the substantial liquid gold that my area picked up last week to sustain for a while.

[tron777]

54 here this morning! Coolest I've had in a while. CVG dropped to 55. No changes to the forecast or to any of my previous short term, medium range and long term calls. Just a simple short and sweet post this morning. Not much to talk about weather wise locally here for a while.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a decent early fall type weather. My guess is on Friday morning some folks may sneak into the upper 40's in your normally cooler areas. Cvg of course will stay in the 50's. How warm do we get in the Sun-Tues period is the next test and I will go 86-88. Vegetation is rather lush for this time of year and models will raise temps if a tropical system is in play and then lower if the tropics move away. Good thing is usually this time of year the heat will not last too long though it can happen the odds are low. Alaska will start to cool down finally has it has been quite mild on the northern shore over the past few days but they are no doubt heading into winter and over the next 3-4 weeks those temps will drop

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! Only place we differ are with temps Sun - Tues. I'll post my call here for CVG:

Sun - 90
Mon - 89
Tues - 88

Let's see how I do with that. Otherwise, we completely agree on everything else. Been seeing some beautiful early season snow pics from the Brooks Range in Alaska from the NWS Fairbanks office.

[cloudy72]

54 here as well this morning.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and I will go with the following for temps those three days.

Sun-87

Mon-86

Tues- 88

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and I will go with the following for temps those three days.

Sun-87

Mon-86

Tues- 88

Nice to see those snows. Barrow hit 53 yesterday which was a few degrees shy of a record but my guess they may not see 50 again until next June

[cloudy72]

54 here this morning! Coolest I've had in a while. CVG dropped to 55. No changes to the forecast or to any of my previous short term, medium range and long term calls. Just a simple short and sweet post this morning. Not much to talk about weather wise locally here for a while.

Hey Les - I think your Sept 15th call for unsettled weather to return looks rock solid at this point!!

[tron777]

Nice to see those snows. Barrow hit 53 yesterday which was a few degrees shy of a record but my guess they may not see 50 again until next June

Hopefully not although when they are warmer then normal, we typically are cooler then normal and vice versa, so there's that.

[tron777]

54 here this morning! Coolest I've had in a while. CVG dropped to 55. No changes to the forecast or to any of my previous short term, medium range and long term calls. Just a simple short and sweet post this morning. Not much to talk about weather wise locally here for a while.

Hey Les - I think your Sept 15th call for unsettled weather to return looks rock solid at this point!!

Thanks Mike! The only concern that I really have is the Sept 20th call to turn cooler again is likely going to need to be extended out in time. I keep seeing troughs digging into the West now post 9/20 and less in the way of troughiness for us. I'll worry about that when I get back in town lol

[cloudy72]

So if anyone wants to plan on a severe weather event here - plan on anytime in the 9/22-9/27 timeframe. I will be outside of Ohio, and we almost always have a historic outbreak when I am away!

[tron777]

So if anyone wants to plan on a severe weather event here - plan on anytime in the 9/22-9/27 timeframe. I will be outside of Ohio, and we almost always have a historic outbreak when I am away!

I am gone 9/11 - 9/19 so maybe something can pop as well?

[tpweather]

So if anyone wants to plan on a severe weather event here - plan on anytime in the 9/22-9/27 timeframe. I will be outside of Ohio, and we almost always have a historic outbreak when I am away!

Have a golf outing in Brown county,Indiana the 24-26th of the month. Good thing is usually September is a quiet month unless you have a tropical system in your neighborhood. Most cold fronts that come through are dry for the most part especially the later in the month but saying that a few years back we played and a upper system was over that area and we played golf in the 40's and rain while here it was in the low 70's.

[tron777]

The next 3 days are great for Golf! If you don't mind the warmth, you could golf thru at least Tuesday of next week without any issues.

[tron777]

Not much change on the 12z guidance. You know the drill. Beautiful to hot. Next chance for rain is Wed of next week, the 15th,

[cloudy72]

Looks like my high was 78 today!

[tron777]

77 for my high today, CVG also topped out at 77.

[tpweather]

Well guess what it rained at my house again today. Only some big drops for about 10 minutes and they were far apart but it tells me that anytime their is a little hiccup in the atmosphere it will find the place that is the wettest place to pick up moisture.

[tron777]

Well guess what it rained at my house again today. Only some big drops for about 10 minutes and they were far apart but it tells me that anytime their is a little hiccup in the atmosphere it will find the place that is the wettest place to pick up moisture.

Amazing! Had some CU earlier but that was it. Never expected anything anyways lol

[cloudy72]

Well guess what it rained at my house again today. Only some big drops for about 10 minutes and they were far apart but it tells me that anytime their is a little hiccup in the atmosphere it will find the place that is the wettest place to pick up moisture.

No question that you live in the rain magnet of AV country Tim! LOL

[tron777]

I saw this morning where local 12 has 92 Sun, 91 Mon, and 89 Tues. They are even a bit higher then my call. At any rate, a sneaky 90 or two is looking very possible here for those that need help in the contest. Otherwise, awesome today and very nice tomorrow before the humidity and heat return for you guys. I am headed to real fall in the morning.

[tpweather]

I saw this morning where local 12 has 92 Sun, 91 Mon, and 89 Tues. They are even a bit higher then my call. At any rate, a sneaky 90 or two is looking very possible here for those that need help in the contest. Otherwise, awesome today and very nice tomorrow before the humidity and heat return for you guys. I am headed to real fall in the morning.

Good Morning Les and have a safe and fun trip. Last night they had 90 for Monday only so this tells me the models put a few extra degrees on those days overnight. I wonder how far the dews will go up and how fast. That is why I thought Sunday would be the hottest day in terms of temp because the dews are still rather low. If the dews go up to fast then of course temps will have a harder time to reach the 90 degree mark. No matter what happens it will be a nice warm period but getting close to less than 12 hours daylight does make it somewhat tougher to reach that mark.

[tpweather]

My guess is some outlying areas hit the upper 40's last night. Nothing unusual and love the drier air. Like Les mentioned in the tropical section there is an uptick over the next week in this part of the world. Will any of the systems hit the USA is TBD. Once you get later in September and October systems have a harder time moving north into the USA but can still happen. This uptick will keep temps above normal over the next week to 10 days but watch the northern plains because I expect by the 20th or so to see highs in the upper 50's and lower 60's with lows in the 30's and once the tropics settle down expect stronger cold fronts to head this way and get us back in the low to mid 70's for highs and 40's for lows. Fall is coming and tell you the truth I like when it happens later in September because once those fronts start coming through much harder to see a big rebound into the 80s.

[tron777]

I saw this morning where local 12 has 92 Sun, 91 Mon, and 89 Tues. They are even a bit higher then my call. At any rate, a sneaky 90 or two is looking very possible here for those that need help in the contest. Otherwise, awesome today and very nice tomorrow before the humidity and heat return for you guys. I am headed to real fall in the morning.

Good Morning Les and have a safe and fun trip. Last night they had 90 for Monday only so this tells me the models put a few extra degrees on those days overnight. I wonder how far the dews will go up and how fast. That is why I thought Sunday would be the hottest day in terms of temp because the dews are still rather low. If the dews go up to fast then of course temps will have a harder time to reach the 90 degree mark. No matter what happens it will be a nice warm period but getting close to less than 12 hours daylight does make it somewhat tougher to reach that mark.

Thank you Tim and good morning! The ground is drying out again here too. We need the rain. I know your hood doesn't but the rest of us do. The worst of the humidity looks to be on Tues. Dews should be low enough Sun and Mon for a 90 to occur in my opinion. Sun and Mon 850s are around 22C and 592-594 DM heights. that screams 90ish for sure in my mind.

[tron777]

My guess is some outlying areas hit the upper 40's last night. Nothing unusual and love the drier air. Like Les mentioned in the tropical section there is an uptick over the next week in this part of the world. Will any of the systems hit the USA is TBD. Once you get later in September and October systems have a harder time moving north into the USA but can still happen. This uptick will keep temps above normal over the next week to 10 days but watch the northern plains because I expect by the 20th or so to see highs in the upper 50's and lower 60's with lows in the 30's and once the tropics settle down expect stronger cold fronts to head this way and get us back in the low to mid 70's for highs and 40's for lows. Fall is coming and tell you the truth I like when it happens later in September because once those fronts start coming through much harder to see a big rebound into the 80s.

We're going to skew warmer then normal for a while IMO thanks in part to the tropics and most of the troughs diving into the Western US. I think next week, we'll have a Gulf system to watch out for. My current thought is for flooding rains in SE Texas. Then as I mentioned in our tropical forum, another African Wave is coming so a new Cape Verde system should get a name also in the coming days. Lots to watch out for in a lot of places accept here. Only thing I see is that front on the 15th (Wed of next week) and then I think as we approach the 20th, we'll get more active with tropical moisture streaming in from the Gulf and a coupe more fronts trying to work their way in. So in short, the boring weather isn't going to last in my mind. It should pick up upon my return actually.