Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

East Pac still humming along with TS Marty. Winds of 40 mph moving W at 14 away from the Mexican Coast.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.s ... t#contents

We have another wave that has an 80% chance of development and that will likely be our next named system.

[tron777]

Marty is down to a TD today. However, a 90% chance now on the next Mexican wave.

[tron777]

TD 14E:

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BEING A TROPICAL STORM...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 100.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 540 MI...875 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT NORA'S WIND FIELD HAS GROWN IN
SIZE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 101.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


Nora should become a hurricane in the next few days.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...BROAD NORA EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 103.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NORA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 107.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[tron777]

We've got a wave off of the Mexican Coast that looks to become our next system in the East Pac. A 60% chance in the next 48 hours and a 90% chance in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

The Mexican wave has a 90% chance now for development so we should get a TD about any time.

[tron777]

TD 15E is born, soon to get a name.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep5.s ... t#contents

[tron777]

Say hello now to TS Olaf with winds of 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...OLAF STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

This one is expected to brush the Baja Penn before heading away from Mexico entirely. NHC is expecting a strong TS (70 mph) and then it weakens after that.

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...OLAF STILL STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

[tron777]

Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...OLAF STRADDLING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 110.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

A new wave is also coming off of Mexico that has a 60% chance in the next 5 days.

[tron777]

We have one wave off the Mexican Coast that has a 50% chance in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

The last threat petered out so here's another one off of Mexico that has a 50% chance in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

[tron777]

We've got a wave off the Mexican Coast that has an 80% chance to develop over the next 5 days:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

We have a high chance now of development:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

TD 16E is now born and will likely get a name soon and eventually become a major hurricane! Most models show a Cat 3 with a Cat 4 not completely off the table before hitting landfall in Mexico. This is the same system I have brought up potentially bringing us some tropical moisture for rain later next week.

090002_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 102.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 15.1N 105.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.8N 107.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 16.6N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 17.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 19.0N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 20.7N 109.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 25.2N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[Bgoney]

Yea ,I think a cat 4 is likely , conditions are ripe

[tron777]

Yea ,I think a cat 4 is likely , conditions are ripe

Agree... low vertical wind shear and SST's are like bath water down there.

[tron777]

Say hello to TS Pamela...

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAMELA...
...FORECAST TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE MEXICO COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 105.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...PAMELA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...
...HURRICANE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 107.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[Bgoney]

Yea ,I think a cat 4 is likely , conditions are ripe

Agree... low vertical wind shear and SST's are like bath water down there.

Well, it certainly is struggling much more than i thought, along with modeling. Chances of reaching 4 have gone down after today's developments and if things continue , a major modeling bust is in the cards

[tron777]

She's up to 70 mph now and the NHC still has her reaching Cat 3 - 115 mph. We'll see.

[tron777]

...PAMELA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 108.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

NHC's Max wind forecast is now down to 105 - Cat 2. No shocker there as discussed yesterday.

[tron777]

Models have indeed busted way high with Pamela. She was a cane earlier, now back down to a TS. Expected to be as Cat 1 again before making landfall. Looks like now, the NHC has her topping out at 85. She is moving N at 9 mph and is expected to make landfall in Mexico tomorrow morning.