May 2025 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

12z Hires models still have the warm front making it just south of CVGland tomorrow. Also still show a lot of showers scattered throughout the morning and afternoon in our area. Although it seams the warm front bulges up to just south of Indy arcing back towards Frankfort Ky. Shear is still very high at March/April levels (55-65kts) , so can’t rule out some severe

[tron777]

12z Hires models still have the warm front making it just south of CVGland tomorrow. Also still show a lot of showers scattered throughout the morning and afternoon in our area. Although it seams the warm front bulges up to just south of Indy arcing back towards Frankfort Ky. Shear is still very high at March/April levels (55-65kts) , so can’t rule out some severe

For sure! Isolated severe is possible but if we stay cloudy and / or wet, then that should act to tame down the severe threat some. I could actually use some rain since the last event wasn't much around here.

[Bgoney]

No changes from SPC for AVland. Their comments for the OV and the early day rains.

IMG_3648.jpeg

[tron777]

Ripley Co IN had an EF1 the other day per the boys:

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
344 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 

...NWS Damage Survey for May 16 Tornado Event...
.EF1 Tornado confirmed near Sunman IN...

Rating:                 EF1
Estimated Peak Wind:    90 mph
Path Length /statute/:  6.1 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   250 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0
Start Date:             05/16/2025
Start Time:             08:02 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 W Sunman / Ripley County / IN
Start Lat/Lon:          39.2440 / -85.1362
End Date:               05/16/2025
End Time:               08:10 PM EDT
End Location:           5 NNE Sunman / Dearborn County / IN
End Lat/Lon:            39.3070 / -85.0592

Survey Summary:

A tornado first developed near the intersection of E County Rd
1150 N and N Spades Rd, breaking off large limbs from both
softwood and hardwood trees. Similar tree damage was found near
the intersection of E County Rd 1200 N and N Spades Rd.
Numerous trees were downed at properties on the west side of 
Spades Road, south of E County Rd 1300 N. A larger cluster of tree
damage then was observed at a property located near the 
intersection of E County Rd 1300 N and N Spades Road. In addition 
to some large hardwood tree limbs broken off, several large, 
healthy trees were either uprooted or snapped. Minor siding damage
to the home was observed, along with missing shingles, some of 
which were thrown into a nearby tree.

Additional tree damage, including some uprooted trees, continued 
northeast of this property. The most extensive damage was observed
at a property located near the intersection of E County Rd 1500 N
and N County Rd 1000 E, in which a well-built outbuilding had a 
complete collapse of the exterior walls. The strength of winds 
required for this kind of damage was estimated around 90 mph, 
making this an EF1 tornado at its maximum strength. Additional 
hardwood tree damage was noted through the field northeast of this
property. The final damage point of this tornado would occur at a
property off of N County Line Rd, where half of the barn roof was
uplifted and the home observed shingle and siding damage. This 
last damage point occurred in the extreme northwest corner of 
Dearborn County Indiana.

The National Weather Service would like to thank Ripley County 
Emergency Management Agency along with Dearborn County Emergency 
Management Agency for their assistance and coordination with this 
damage survey.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 78, DAY 76 and CMH 73 today.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Models are doing a good job with rain and t-storms occurring across the area this morning. Looking like a pretty wet day so if that is how it plays out, severe wx should not be too much of an issue for us. We will monitor things this afternoon to make sure of course. Could see an inch plus of rain today too in some areas.

[Bgoney]

DP in Louisville 61, CVG 48

[tron777]

New rainfall totals:

CVG - 0.31"
Me - 0.37"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.44"

[tron777]

9am totals:

CVG - 0.50"
Me - 0.63"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.71"

[MVWxObserver]

My nephew Jared and his wife Madi along with Madi's folks all in TN are in the Enhanced risk today.

Unfortunately areas like Somerset and London, KY e.g. who were hard hit late last week are under the Enhanced, too.

[Browneyedgirl]

Sitting at .72 right now.

[tron777]

10am totals:

CVG - 0.53"
Me - 0.66"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.72"

[tron777]

[tron777]

11am totals:

CVG - 0.59"
Me - 0.73"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.82"

[Bgoney]

IMG_3652.jpeg

[tron777]

1pm totals:

CVG - 0.65"
Me - 0.82"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.95"

[tron777]

2pm totals:

CVG - 0.82"
Me - 1.03"
Boone Co mesonet - 1.15"

[Bgoney]

A few hours break. How much do temps and DPs rise and can we build any cape during this period

[tron777]

Storms are beginning to pop over E ILL now. These will quickly become severe, if not tornadic this afternoon. For us, I don't think we'll have a lot of time to destabilize. But as usual, we'll see. The clearing line is not too far away. I certainly think our severe chance will be on the more isolated side though since we won't have a lot of time for heating. We're almost at peak heating anyway. An hour, maybe 90 mins tops.

[winterstormjoe]

A few hours break. How much do temps and DPs rise and can we build any cape during this period

Yeah, looks like some sun will try to show itself...

[tron777]

Big storms... along with a new TOR watch to our SW for West KY and West TN is also ongoing. These will try and move NE but the warm front is still S of us so I would expect those storms to miss us potentially as long as the warm front doesn't go north of us of course.

[tron777]

Per CB's Facebook page:

Breaking News: The NWS confirms an EF-4 tornado hit Pulaski and Laurel Counties Friday night. Winds peaked at 170mph. This tornado was almost 1 mile wide and was on the ground for nearly 56 miles. #kywx

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 66, DAY 59 and CMH 61 today.