February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event

[Trevor]

3-4" wow! I would be tickled to death if that verified from now thru Thurs.

We expect this to come in a bit further north (models picked up on it at 18z) + we think the ULL high-ratio snows will deliver.

That little snow streak tonight will be good for a dusting to 1" as well for Cincinnati area and points west and south.

The ULL piece is def. going to be interesting. We all know it is a high end ratio event too. 0.10" could mean 1.5 to 2" in snow in some cases.

Exactly.

[tron777]

Snow in the form of flurries and very light snow is making it to the ground in Central ILL.

[Trevor]

Another nice bump north on the NAM as expected.

[tron777]

Good morning! The SREF has come back down to reality with a 2" mean at CVG. That is for this morning's flurries thru Thursday morning. Remember we have flurries ongoing right now (17 and light snow at CVG), then late tonight and tomorrow morning's light snow, then the upper low Wed night.

After reviewing the overnight data, I think a couple of inches is doable when you combine all 3 rounds. So a light dusting in some areas this morning, esp south, then an inch possible Wed AM (heavier south of the Metro of course where the advisory is) then another inch or so with the upper low Wed night. The upper low maybe the best part of this storm for us IMO.

[tron777]

6Z GFS is similar to 0Z around 0.11 / 0.1@" of QPF for both rounds of snow.

[tron777]

Overnight thinking from the boys:

Toward evening, attention will shift to the shortwave digging
into the central Plains and lower Midwest, supporting widespread
snow across the lower Ohio Valley. With low level dry air
reinforced throughout the day, all snow from this system likely
fails to reach the southern portions of the area (northern
Kentucky) until after midnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

Overall, no major trends to note with the expectations
associated with the upcoming snow event Tuesday night into
Wednesday. No changes were made to the currently advisory and
total snowfall amounts are consistent with the previous
forecast.

The atmosphere remains essentially perfect thermally speaking
but the steady flow of dry air from the north and the lack of
intense upward lift across the local area, suggests
accumulations and impacts will be isolated to portions of
southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Forecast soundings depict
an incredible DGZ depth of 12kft+ so as weak frontogenesis
occurs, snowfall accumulations will be very effective. The
period of best vertical ascent is likely between 4am and 9am,
with snowfall amounts of generally 1 to 3 inches across the
advised area. Snow tapers off from west to east across the tri-
state and northeast Kentucky between noon and 3pm. It should be
noted that any nudge north or south in the frontogenesis could
cause snow accumulations to increase or decrease fairly
significantly, given the very efficient dendrite production.
Even a few hundredths more of QPF will result in noticeable
forecast changes today.

Similar to today (Tuesday), the rest of the area avoids the snow
activity, with flurries reaching as far north as I-70. High
temperatures remain below freezing with light northerly flow.

As the southern system moves away from the area, the primary
vort-lobe associated with the upper level trough approaches from
the west, with some light snow showers likely moving into the
area from the west Wednesday evening as the short term
concludes.



&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Upper low will track across the region to start the period.
This will push a secondary front through the area Wednesday
night. This combination will result in snow showers which could
produce some light accumulations, generally under an inch. This
will have moved off to the east by Thursday, but winds will
become gusty. Flow off of Lake Michigan could keep some flurries
or maybe even a few snow showers across far northern counties.

[tron777]

16 with light snow at CVG per the 6am reading Vis is like at 3 miles. On the way in, it was lightly snowing until I got to about Kenwood. Then there was nothing,

[tpweather]

Good Morning and was busy yesterday so lets see what is going on with the current event. Sunday night I had predicted snowfall amounts of 4-6 locally and also for the I-64 area with a chance for some isolated totals of 8 inches near I-64 plus 1-2 inches near I-70.

When I got up this morning and saw where the advisory was posted I was shocked to say the least. When I make a forecast for snow I look at total precip and also ratio's and this formula tends to work well. I had about .25 liquid locally with .10 near I-70 and .40 near I-64.

Just looking at info this morning and it looks like those totals are cut in half. You hate to be stubborn and sometimes must look at new information and though the models were never together over the weekend it seems the NAM especially with its higher totals folded late Sunday.

So going by precip totals I need to keep the I-70 still at 1-2 because with the upper system later Wednesday it can produce a quick inch because of the high ratio. Locally must lower the amounts and again 1-4 and once again a higher total because of the upper system. I-64 and still going 3-5 but hard to see any 8 inch totals down that way.

I do have the bigger range locally of 1-4 because this has always been the cutoff point for main part of the storm overnight into early Wednesday.

Hopefully this will work well in the end. I have not looked at any posts on this forum but will over the next hour or two and see the thoughts of folks on here. Time for another cup of coffee and will be back shortly

[tron777]

Nothing going on here in Mason but checked the house cam's and it looks like it is still lightly snowing with a small dusting of new snow on the ground.

[tron777]

CVG continues to drop. 13 with light snow as of 8am.

[tron777]

9Z SREF is ticking back down further 1.65" for the mean at CVG. 12Z HRRR brings in light snow to CVG / Cincy about 3 or 4am tonight and lingers it till about 10am on Wed give or take.

[BookNerdCarp]

What's everyone's opinion on tomorrow morning out my way. Kids are jittery wanting to know. LOL

[tron777]

What's everyone's opinion on tomorrow morning out my way. Kids are jittery wanting to know. LOL

I could see a couple of inches total from both rounds of snow (tomorrow morning and tomorrow night with the upper low swinging thru.)

[BookNerdCarp]

What's everyone's opinion on tomorrow morning out my way. Kids are jittery wanting to know. LOL

I could see a couple of inches total from both rounds of snow (tomorrow morning and tomorrow night with the upper low swinging thru.)

I figured that early morning timing 4-6 am would probably seal our fate.

[tron777]

What's everyone's opinion on tomorrow morning out my way. Kids are jittery wanting to know. LOL

I could see a couple of inches total from both rounds of snow (tomorrow morning and tomorrow night with the upper low swinging thru.)

I figured that early morning timing 4-6 am would probably seal our fate.

Yeah the timing for tomorrow morning is perfect for those wanting school to be delayed or closed. Just depends on how much QPF we have available. You re more south so a delay or a closure wouldn't shock me at all.

[BookNerdCarp]

What's everyone's opinion on tomorrow morning out my way. Kids are jittery wanting to know. LOL

I could see a couple of inches total from both rounds of snow (tomorrow morning and tomorrow night with the upper low swinging thru.)

I figured that early morning timing 4-6 am would probably seal our fate.

Yeah the timing for tomorrow morning is perfect for those wanting school to be delayed or closed. Just depends on how much QPF we have available. You re more south so a delay or a closure wouldn't shock me at all.

Due to the rural nature here in Georgetown in generally takes about 1/2 inch on the roads are we are done. LOL People in Buffalo would laugh at us.

[tron777]

What's everyone's opinion on tomorrow morning out my way. Kids are jittery wanting to know. LOL

I could see a couple of inches total from both rounds of snow (tomorrow morning and tomorrow night with the upper low swinging thru.)

I figured that early morning timing 4-6 am would probably seal our fate.

Yeah the timing for tomorrow morning is perfect for those wanting school to be delayed or closed. Just depends on how much QPF we have available. You re more south so a delay or a closure wouldn't shock me at all.

Due to the rural nature here in Georgetown in generally takes about 1/2 inch on the roads are we are done. LOL People in Buffalo would laugh at us.

My family in Michigan is always laughing!

[tpweather]

Snowing hard enough that the pavement getting covered

[tron777]

Snowing hard enough that the pavement getting covered

Excellent Tim! I was seeing the same when I checked the house cams a little while ago.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Most models today remain unchanged. QPF for CVG is in the 0.03 to 0.06" range for overnight / tomorrow then another 0.06" or so for Wed night with the upper low. I am seeing more QPF from the upper low then the system snow itself to be honest. so I would watch for slick spots along and S of the river esp tomorrow morning and area wide for Thurs morning.

[tpweather]

Another informative video from Brian. Sort of funny to see that the models are still having some problems and the event has started to the west. The transfer of energy is always important and that is where many times you see a bust in the Ohio Valley even after the storm has started. This winter not much of a problem but this storm we finally have at least a hybrid transfer. The reason I mentioned hybrid is the system coming through here is not that strong in terms of a low pressure and even the surface low along the GOM is not that strong. Which piece of energy will the east coast decide to take over or is it just waiting for any piece to arrive and then a quick forming low. Is the low in the GOM even part of that process and not sure tell you the truth.

So no changes to the forecast and once it starts this evening I can see where the advisory is extended another 1 or 2 counties north and this would put most of the local I-275 in an advisory mode. Again the advisory means little as just getting an inch with these temps can cause road problems especially at night and you sort of get that little glaze of ice instead of snow piling up on the roads.

Later Wednesday with another piece of energy is near us how does this play out and yes it can add to the accumulations and if it becomes more of evening/overnight event roads once again can get rather slick. Probably not an long term event and one of those quick 2-4 hours where the snow comes down and then its over. Then we get cold lol and maybe just maybe we get to 0 but again clouds and the wind could keep us in the higher single digits. Should get to near 32 on Saturday and then 40's on Sunday.

[tron777]

Snow ratios will be higher then I originally expected. We will see less QPF but temps are colder as well as the thermals. As BG said 0.10" of liquid could be 2.5 to 3" of snow instead of 1.5 to 2" as I was originally thinking a few days ago.

[tpweather]

Snow ratios will be higher then I originally expected. We will see less QPF but temps are colder as well as the thermals. As BG said 0.10" of liquid could be 2.5 to 3" of snow instead of 1.5 to 2" as I was originally thinking a few days ago.

Les as we know its always a math problem lol. And if the models are off just like you mentioned 0.10 makes a big difference on the high end and low end. To me with this event is most of the snow will be while its dark and that was always one of the reasons I went higher late Sunday. Still fun to watch and see how this plays out and really the bigger busts so far have been in parts of the central plains especially north of KC and St.Louis

[tron777]

Snow ratios will be higher then I originally expected. We will see less QPF but temps are colder as well as the thermals. As BG said 0.10" of liquid could be 2.5 to 3" of snow instead of 1.5 to 2" as I was originally thinking a few days ago.

Les as we know its always a math problem lol. And if the models are off just like you mentioned 0.10 makes a big difference on the high end and low end. To me with this event is most of the snow will be while its dark and that was always one of the reasons I went higher late Sunday. Still fun to watch and see how this plays out and really the bigger busts so far have been in parts of the central plains especially north of KC and St.Louis

Models did not handle this mornings snow well either. LOU area had 1" totals and most models had every little occurring.