February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event

[tron777]

I think we've got good model agreement now for two rounds of snow. We get clipped by the Wed morning wave then all areas for the upper low Wed night.

[tron777]

I am revising my forecast. I think 1-2" with the first wave and up to another inch with the upper low. So a grand total of 1-3" looks good for the region as a whole from Wed morning thru Thurs morning. I would think that an advisory will be issued tomorrow for Cincy on south or Boone, Kenton, Campbell on south. Something like that anyway.

[Bgoney]

Qpf from 12z ( Gfs has held fairly steady for a few runs)

IMG_3241.jpeg

[tron777]

12Z CMC is similar... clipped by the 1st round and then the upper low Wed night for everyone.

[BookNerdCarp]

0.16 at higher ratios is not bad for my hood

[tron777]

12Z Euro is pretty sad looking today for moisture.

[MattyD]

https://latenighter.com/wp-content/uplo ... 20x880.jpg

[BookNerdCarp]

KYZ089-090-094>100-180500-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0012.250219T0000Z-250219T1700Z/
Carroll-Gallatin-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-
Lewis-
Including the cities of Owenton, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount
Olivet, Tollesboro, Camp Dix, Williamstown, Butler, Vanceburg,
Head Of Grassy, Carrollton, Crittenden, Warsaw, Falmouth,
Maysville, and Dry Ridge
259 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches.

* WHERE...Lewis, Bracken, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Mason, Owen,
Pendleton, and Robertson Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning
commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. visit goky.ky.gov for the
latest road information.

[BookNerdCarp]

Went from promising to not even an Advisory event. Wow.

[tron777]

Went from promising to not even an Advisory event. Wow.

Looks good for our S counties still. As for me... ILN has POPS down to 50%.

[tron777]

AFD has shrank as a result too.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Considerable cloudiness will remain across the region on
Tuesday despite surface high pressure. There may be a low chance
of snow in our far southwest during the morning with
aforementioned deformation. It will continue to be cold (much
below normal) with highs ranging from the mid teens north to the
mid 20s south.

For Tuesday night into the first part of Wednesday, models have
trended a little farther south with the next weather system to
affect the Ohio Valley (it is more suppressed). As a result, it
looks like snow associated with this system may not get to much
farther north then the Ohio River. However, we could still see
up to 2 inches of snow accumulate across our far southern CWFA.
In coordination and collaboration with our southern neighbors,
have issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 00Z Wednesday into
17Z Wednesday. Snow accumulations north of the advisory will be
an inch or less. We should see a brief break in the pcpn threat
Wednesday afternoon as the first system moves east and another
system moves in from the west. After lows in the 10 to 15 degree
range, highs on Wednesday will range from the upper teens north
to the mid 20s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level short wave energy will pivot down across the southern
Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley Wednesday night. This will lead to
scattered snow showers and the potential for some localized light
snow accumulations.

[tron777]

18Z NAM came back north and gives CVG 0.10" of QPF again.

[tron777]

18Z RGEM bumped north... barely... but we may get an inch out of the deal. If we can somehow manage 0.10" like the NAM shows than 1.5" maybe 2" would even be possible. It will be very cold when the snow falls however much we happen to see.

[tron777]

SREF has been rock steady. 15Z run has 3.5" on the mean still at CVG.

[tron777]

WAVE 3s Call.jpg

[CINCINNATI01]

Dry air and warm air will forever be our downfall

[tron777]

18Z GFS is holding steady with 0.17" at CVG for QPF.

[tron777]

Dry air and warm air will forever be our downfall

Not always as early January showed but 90% of the other times, it always is lol

[tron777]

18Z GEFS mean is less then an inch north of the river, an inch CVG and 2" S counties.

[tron777]

0.03" QPF at CVG from the 18Z Euro for Wed AM and an additional 0.04" with the upper low Wed night.

[Bgoney]

Yea , at this point I’d go an inch or less for early Wednesday and then again for late Wednesday into Thursday.

[Trevor]

This is a subscriber post that I'm sneaking onto the forum. Shhh don't tell anyone


First Call Snowfall Forecast
Monday Night through Thursday Night
[Mon 2/17/25 6:20pm]

Here's our first call for snowfall for Monday night through Thursday night. This includes the light streak of snow tonight, the surface low snow Tuesday night through Wednesday, and the upper-level low snow Wednesday evening through Thursday. The snow will come in rounds, and not everyone will see snow in each round.

We will have a final call posted Tuesday on the free page for everyone to see.

[Trevor]

If you'd like to become a subscriber, the first seven days are free then it's $4.99/month.
https://buy.stripe.com/dR6cNifXx584fkceVa

[tron777]

3-4" wow! I would be tickled to death if that verified from now thru Thurs.

[Trevor]

3-4" wow! I would be tickled to death if that verified from now thru Thurs.

We expect this to come in a bit further north (models picked up on it at 18z) + we think the ULL high-ratio snows will deliver.

That little snow streak tonight will be good for a dusting to 1" as well for Cincinnati area and points west and south.

[tron777]

3-4" wow! I would be tickled to death if that verified from now thru Thurs.

We expect this to come in a bit further north (models picked up on it at 18z) + we think the ULL high-ratio snows will deliver.

That little snow streak tonight will be good for a dusting to 1" as well for Cincinnati area and points west and south.

The ULL piece is def. going to be interesting. We all know it is a high end ratio event too. 0.10" could mean 1.5 to 2" in snow in some cases.