February 2025 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Nearing 1/2 inch of rain for the first part of the system and rains should be on the decrease over the next few hours and the further northwest you live the longer period of little to no rain in the early-mid afternoon. How far south does the drier air go and some models have it nearing Lexington. That may be a touch to far south imo but a trend to watch. So with the first episode we look to be on the lower end of the predicted rainfall but with the somewhat further southeast movement overnight that makes sense. When do the rains ramp up again and could be after 6pm and yes going to be several hours of moderate to heavy rain at times. Getting the break locally will help somewhat with the streams. Down in Kentucky that is not the case and with very little break in the action those streams are going to be over the banks if they are not there yet.

[tpweather]

Nam looking nice for mid-week. Again only goes out so far but from what I can tell the 50/50 low is there and the upper trough digging a little further southwest. Again early in the game and just trying to pick out items that can help in seeing what may happen mid-week. Will see what the main models show for the afternoon runs.

[tron777]

The set up next week is more common and yes you see the heavier snows in southern Missouri as moisture returns from the GOM. Then can we get the storm to phase. The trend overnight in the right direction and lets see that trend continue. Again with the cold next week and snow falls it can be on the ground for a longer period than normal in mid-late February. Also a snow falling with temps in the low-mid 20's very similar to the January storm and not saying its going to be the same kind of storm but accumulations can happen quickly and since we go below 32 on Sunday pavement temps will be well below that mark once the snow arrives.

Les I believe we have the possible situations down which is good this far in advance and we just wait and see but I expect a new thread to be posted later today LES lol.

If the trends are good either later today or tomorrow most certainly.

[tron777]

Could be a terrible week for parts of Kentucky with flooding and then a chance of a bigger winter storm. Still believe sooner of later the gov will issue a state of emergency and that could happen later today.

Gov. Beshear already did that yesterday due to the expected flooding.

[tron777]

Nam looking nice for mid-week. Again only goes out so far but from what I can tell the 50/50 low is there and the upper trough digging a little further southwest. Again early in the game and just trying to pick out items that can help in seeing what may happen mid-week. Will see what the main models show for the afternoon runs.

The RGEM is much much weaker at 1009 MB with the low where the NAM is more north and stronger at 1005 MB when the model stops at 84 hours. In this case, and we don't say it often, but the stronger the better for us.

[tpweather]

Could be a terrible week for parts of Kentucky with flooding and then a chance of a bigger winter storm. Still believe sooner of later the gov will issue a state of emergency and that could happen later today.

Gov. Beshear already did that yesterday due to the expected flooding.

Les I missed that information. Thanks

[tron777]

Could be a terrible week for parts of Kentucky with flooding and then a chance of a bigger winter storm. Still believe sooner of later the gov will issue a state of emergency and that could happen later today.

Gov. Beshear already did that yesterday due to the expected flooding.

Les I missed that information. Thanks

No problem! I think he did it after the WPC came out with the high risk designation in Western KY which we know, is very rare.

[tron777]

0.44" now at CVG per the 10am reading.

For next week... I am noticing that the models that have been suppressed, are starting to correct more north like the NAV GEM and ICON models. Hope to see the GFS follow suit.

[tron777]

A little of this is from Sunday too but wow!!!

ICON.png

[tpweather]

Flood warnings for parts of southern Ky and northern Tn. With some places already 2.5 inches and plenty more to come.

[tpweather]

That is wild from the ICON and no doubt further north than yesterday.

[airwolf76]

Lester that icon map you just posted has given me an anxiety attack. my plow tractor is down right now. the starter engine coil went on it and i wont have my new one till next weekend. i do have a back up snowblower but it is just a small 21" single stage craftsman.

[tpweather]

The low pressure today that is bringing the very heavy rain is a key for next weeks weather. That low hopefully becomes the 50/50 low and gets stuck over eastern Canada. This slows storms down which we no doubt need. Probably helps the east coast more but enough to where we get in on some of the action

[tpweather]

Starting to see the jet in Arkansas getting stronger and this is key for later today. So far everything going pretty much like forecast and yes never perfect but so far the players on the field are doing their job

[tron777]

Lester that icon map you just posted has given me an anxiety attack. my plow tractor is down right now. the starter engine coil went on it and i wont have my new one till next weekend. i do have a back up snowblower but it is just a small 21" single stage craftsman.

I think you're going to get smoked! It'll be a light fluffy snow and if you keep up with it every few hours you should be fine.

[tron777]

Nice deform band on Sunday per the 12Z GFS. I-71 special

Damn,,, at CVG:

Code: Select all

SUN 12Z 16-FEB   0.9    -0.2     996      94      96    0.59     540     543    Rain
SUN 18Z 16-FEB  -0.5    -9.9    1008      88      46    0.33     535     529     Rest is snow
MON 00Z 17-FEB  -4.1   -12.7    1017      85      70    0.01     532     519    
MON 06Z 17-FEB  -6.9   -14.5    1022      86       9    0.01     539     522    

EDIT: I was going with an inch Sunday but may have to revise and make it 1-2" should we see more support. We're talking grassy areas / car toppers unless we get a very heavy rate then we're talking roads too. But I think most of it falls with temps near freezing.

[tron777]

If you look at the last several GFS runs, this also includes right now, the 12Z run... Notice the flat and progress look to the upper level flow and more sheared out energy and a flatter PV too. Then, with each run, you can see the GFS slowly correcting towards the other guidance with a more phased look as time goes on. This is nice! When the foreign models latch on and hold it is usually a good sign. You can see the US guidance starting to come around now.

GFS Trends.gif

[tpweather]

So far the gfs looks better at around hour 81 or so. Minor differences but ones we need to watch. As the upper system comes down with the trough you look in the southern plains to see how the trough is situated and before mainly a north to south trough but the latest may be showing a more southwest to northeast trough and will see how the remaining hours go with this run to see if that is a nice trend.

Les normally we don't see a ton of back end snows because usually the moisture is gone before the cold gets here. Sunday morning a little different and I have 1/2- 1 inch locally but no doubt could see more north of here but again its timing because the system should start to pick up speed sometime Sunday morning

[tron777]

Trends in the last several Euro runs for snowfall while we await the 12Z Euro later. My gosh...

Euro trends.gif

[tron777]

So far the gfs looks better at around hour 81 or so. Minor differences but ones we need to watch. As the upper system comes down with the trough you look in the southern plains to see how the trough is situated and before mainly a north to south trough but the latest may be showing a more southwest to northeast trough and will see how the remaining hours go with this run to see if that is a nice trend.

Les normally we don't see a ton of back end snows because usually the moisture is gone before the cold gets here. Sunday morning a little different and I have 1/2- 1 inch locally but no doubt could see more north of here but again its timing because the system should start to pick up speed sometime Sunday morning

Agreed Tim... The up to 1" call looks good for most right now. 1-2" can occur if we see some good frontogenic forcing on the backside at 700 MB. We will be watching that tomorrow.

[tron777]

GFS is getting a clue now Tim... here we go!!!

[tpweather]

No doubt the gfs went the correct way for us if we want snow. Surface low along the GOM but not strong at first and then the upper system stays in the Ohio Valley longer. So not a merger but would give us a decent snow before the two collide off the east coast. Very classic looking system but key here is cold already in place compared to many storms when we need cold air injected into the system.

[tpweather]

GFS is getting a clue now Tim... here we go!!!

Hey Les when you start to see the GFS slowing systems down that is a clue imo

[tron777]

It is trying to phase in that PV lobe to really slow this down and make the pivot point on us as the trough goes negative tilt. Wow...

[tron777]

You get a brief closed low at 500 MB over NE Ohio. If we can speed up that process by a mere 6 hours that the GFS is showing, we'll have a monster here. So close to a monster but still a respectable storm being shown as is!