February 2025 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Tim.. the biggest one day rainfall for Feb at CVG occurred on Feb 15, 1990 when 2.84" fell. This system may rival that.

[tron777]

ALERT for Dayton, CMH and I-70 folks...

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-150300-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0010.250215T0600Z-250215T1500Z/
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Including the cities of Tipp City, Delaware, Plain City, Downtown
Dayton, Liberty, St. Marys, Eaton, Xenia, Sidney, Kettering,
Richmond, Springfield, London, New Bremen, Troy, Greenville,
Fairborn, Downtown Columbus, Urbana, West Jefferson, Wapakoneta,
Celina, Beavercreek, West College Corner, Bellefontaine,
Coldwater, Camden, Marysville, Kenton, Newark, Piqua,
Connersville, Ada, and Minster
151 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total ice accumulations up to
one tenth of an inch and total snow accumulations of around a half
inch or less.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Indiana and central and west
central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

[tpweather]

Okay what can go wrong department is in full force. What keeps us from getting those higher totals. One way is the convection is so strong to the south it keeps the band of rain more localized and that would mean big time problems south of here. Severe storms could form later in the day and sometimes this can put a cap on rain moving further north. So with any forecast busts can happen and sometimes those busts are bigger than others. The severe part though probably has a limited time to form just because its rained much of the day and may not be enough instability to get storms to a strong level so it could still happen but I don't believe that will cause the bust. The convection to our south imo has a greater chance to limit the very heavy rain to go further north. Still I am not convinced that this happens and probably a 15p/c chance compared to maybe less than 5 p/c for the severe portion. So all in all an 80p/c chance of seeing some high rain totals is strong and for mid-Feb almost off the charts.

Hey Les thanks for the info and I agree timing with this system has us on the rainy side for probably 18-20 hours of the 15th and that alone brings chances higher for an all-time rain event.

[tron777]

18Z GFS nails CVG with heavy rain and a nice deform band too on the backside for Sunday. It gives us 3.5" plus of rain. Maybe an inch of snow on Sunday?

It is also better with the lead wave next week but still too progressive IMO with the upper level system. The foreign models try and phase it in for the coastal low. I wish the phase was 12 hours sooner.

Not bad with the higher ratios.

CVG

Code: Select all

WED 00Z 19-FEB  -5.7    -7.8    1030      89      95    0.01     555     532    
WED 06Z 19-FEB  -7.4    -8.6    1029      93      96    0.14     554     531    
WED 12Z 19-FEB  -8.6    -9.6    1029      93      96    0.12     551     528    
WED 18Z 19-FEB  -3.8    -9.2    1028      74      65    0.01     550     529    
THU 00Z 20-FEB  -6.7   -10.0    1028      89      18    0.00     548     526    
THU 06Z 20-FEB  -9.1   -12.2    1027      87      36    0.00     543     522    
THU 12Z 20-FEB  -8.0   -15.8    1027      94     100    0.04     534     513    
THU 18Z 20-FEB  -5.7   -17.7    1029      73      84    0.04     532     510    
FRI 00Z 21-FEB  -9.8   -15.9    1033      85      48    0.01     539     513   

[tron777]

You can see the warm front coming... band of snow to the SW before the warmer air takes over. However, one problem! The dewpoint right now is low, 13. It'll all be virga IMO.

[tron777]

3.47" of rain is the mean for CVG on the 18Z GEFS for tomorrow / tomorrow night. Holy crap!

[tron777]

12Z Euro Ens Mean over the next week for snow. This would be for Sunday and next week's systems combined. Not a terrible signal and it is an increase from previous runs.

EuroEns.png

[tron777]

ALERT: A RARE High Risk issued for flooding over South Western OV:

RARE High Risk.jpg

[tron777]

18Z Euro coming in with 2,25" of rain for CVG and at an inch maybe 1.5" of snow for Sunday. For next week, 0.15" of QPF but very cold. Temps 10 to 15 degree range. So 0.15" QPF could easily get you 2-3" of fluffy snow. Upper levels do look a bit better vs 12Z. It is a full fledged snow storm for Mid Atl and I-95. Classic Nor Easter, Heaviest snows for us miss and get Eastern KY and S Apps. Too bad the storm can't come together a little sooner. Need that upper low to phase in sooner!

[tron777]

18Z GFS is a cold and snowy run with light to moderate snow makers , cold temps, into early March. MJO 8, 1 and 2. This is not a far fetched solution folks. We're in Phase 8 as of yesterday.

obs_phase40_small.gif

Phases 8-3 are cold this time of year.

MJO Phases.png

So we transition from MJO Phase 7, which is our current pattern, into a -PNA, -EPO, -AO, -NAO pattern next week that produces the big EC storm. The AO, NAO, and EPO all rise after that, but the PNA spikes very negative along the West Coast of North America _(trough in AK, bit ridge is over West Coast and NW Canada) so it is still a ridge West, trough East pattern so it'll be cold. This sets up later this month into early March. So buckle up. Spring is not coming anytime soon.

eps_z500a_namer_13.png

eps_z500a_namer_36.png

eps_z500a_namer_61.png

[tpweather]

Good morning and let the fun begin. Rains through much of the day will be on the light to sometimes moderate and this is until about 5p . During that period a good .5-.75 inches seems good around here. If you look at the radar this morning heavy rain in southern Kentucky. If the system was just heading east we would end up with the above total. That is not the case as the jet strengthens as the day goes on and a warm front which is just south of the heavy rain will head north during the day. With a tight gradient the rain instead of moving west to east will be a southwest to northeast movement and this is the area that gets hit hard. No doubt we are on the northern end of the heavy rain but still it looks like before all is said and done 2-4 inches possible with lighter totals north and heavier totals south. When does the heavier rain band stop and does it stall for several hours or start moving southeast later tonight.

Early this afternoon the first part of the system will give some folks a break from the rain a few hours. This is more likely the further north you go but could happen to all of the local area. Depending on how long the break is can lower totals some. Not sure if we break a Feb record for a one day total but should be in the top 10. Five and six inch totals are possible but that is more likely to the southwest of us and probably south of the Louisville area.

A nowcast is the way to go and trends later this afternoon will need to be watched. Though I have 2-4 in the forecast because yes some areas can get close to that mark if they are in that band of heavier rain longer the total I would give CVG at this point is the lower end and go with 2.30. This evening flash flooding could happen and happen quickly with heavy rainfall for several hours. Okay that is the rainy part of the storm and will take a look at Sunday here shortly to see if any flash freeze is possible and can we get some snow on the ground plus look at the chances of snow next week which look higher than normal and cold is long lasting and after the temp gets to 32 on Sunday how many days do we stay below that mark and though we saw the stretch in January always harder for that to happen in February so getting a stretch that could last 7-10 deals is rare for mid February

[tpweather]

With the heavier rainfall in southwest Kentucky some places already nearing the 2 inch mark. That area is the most likely are to get 5-6 inches of rain and of course some isolated areas a tad more. The models since Thursday evening had a northwest shift but last night a southeast shift of the heaviest rain. The shift was small and probably 20 miles or so. This is another reason I kept us on the lower end of that 2-4 inches. Folks towards Indy may end up with less than 1/2 rain for this event. So no doubt a sharp cutoff of the decent rains. Still more work to be done for the possible snow next week as some upper lows will move across the country and once the cold front stalls near the GOM a storm should form and can it hook up with an upper system to form a bigger storm. So some light snows even if they don't merge near us. The Nao has a brief period where it goes negative early next week to slow down the process and this would help in our chances of a bigger snow. The energy is still in the pacific and maybe by later Sunday its nearing the mainland. Where does the low form near the GOM is key as well and does this happen say in southeast Texas or northwest Florida. Probably somewhere in between but we want the most westerly area to see this storm form.

[tpweather]

Nearing 1/3 of an inch at CVG this morning so the .5-.75 looks good though folks northwest lower amounts. When we get the break early afternoon is it a 2 hour or 4 hour break in the action. Once the rains return we will see the heaviest of rains fall and a rainy and yes windy evening. Temps are tricky as well and how far north does the warm front go. I believe somewhere between CVG and Lexington and yes some folks in southeast Kentucky head into the 60's. We will probably top out in the mid-40's at best imo.

[tron777]

Good morning! 34 here and at CVG with rain falling.

8am totals:

CVG - 0.29"
Me - 0.32"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.35"

No doubt these totals will only go up. It'll be interesting to see what the 24 hour total will be prior to hitting midnight. The rain will get cranked up this evening for sure. After getting 2-4" of rain (love that call btw Tim) then an inch or so of snow is possible for tomorrow! Then... we are on to tracking next week's cold and snow chances. As I said last night, buckle up!

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and yes going to be a busy day. Heading to Molly Malone's for a few hours in the afternoon as my daughter's friend is having a baby shower and we know her so they invited the old folks lol. Hopefully that will be the break in the rain and when I come back tons of tracking

[tron777]

I'm getting a good feeling that we'll be needing a thread for next week. We are not in NAM or RGEM territory yet though. The GFS continues to be too progressive IMO and keeps the upper low and southern surface low energy unphased. We do not want that solution. Wave 1 is only light snow with possible suppression and then the best snow is with the upper low on Thurs. CMC continues to show a more phased system for snow beginning Wed morning ending Thurs morning. We are on the outer fringes of this storm so best snows will be in our S / SE zones. Lighter North and West of Cincinnati. The model has the right idea though. The quicker the phase, the better the outcome for us. Again, cold air is no problem at all. We need QPF. Period. The Euro is a little faster with snow moving in Tues night ending Thurs morning with the upper low. There is a bit of a break between the system snow and ULL snow as it's not quite like the CMC. It's a little disjointed. An in between solution to the GFS and CMC to be honest. The Ensemble guidance like the GEFS still has all possible outcomes, but it did have 4 or 5 members that showed a CMC like solution. The EPS is close to the CMC. Def wetter then the GEFS. So we'll see guys.... I'm very interested in this one. I know the Mid Atl, and New England will get destroyed by this system. But that doesn't mean that we can't get a little somethin' somethin' for us. It'll be a very high ratio snow. 0.20 or 0.30" (assuming we can get that much QPF) would be warning criteria snow.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and yes going to be a busy day. Heading to Molly Malone's for a few hours in the afternoon as my daughter's friend is having a baby shower and we know her so they invited the old folks lol. Hopefully that will be the break in the rain and when I come back tons of tracking

Sounds good Tim! I just need to run a few errands this morning before the rain gets too nasty later today.

[tron777]

0.29" QPF on the 0Z Euro. The 6Z Euro was a very nice run, look at this! A slower start, more like the CMC where it's a better phase.

CVG

Code: Select all

WED 12Z 19-FEB -10.9    -9.1    1032      74     100    0.05     553     529    
WED 18Z 19-FEB  -9.6    -8.3    1028      80     100    0.16     550     528    
THU 00Z 20-FEB  -9.5   -10.4    1024      85     100    0.12     542     524    
THU 06Z 20-FEB -11.8   -14.7    1022      82     100    0.17     533     516    
THU 12Z 20-FEB -12.3   -17.0    1025      81      92    0.03     531     513    

0.53" of QPF with temps in the teens... damn! Sign me up!

[tpweather]

Great Post Les concerning mid-week. I do believe some snow will fall but is a couple of light events that may end up in the 1-2 inch range or can we sneak in a bigger system that can give us something in that 3-6 inch range. The ratio's will no doubt help so just getting .2-.3 can give you or 3 inches. Just a little early but hopefully by this time on Sunday a new thread will be up and running. I need a little more snow for the contest lol

[tron777]

6Z Euro looking nice...

6Z Euro.png

0Z EPS Mean vs 6Z EPS Mean - Note the bump up! I like it, I like it!

0Z EPS vs 6Z EPS.gif

[tron777]

Great Post Les concerning mid-week. I do believe some snow will fall but is a couple of light events that may end up in the 1-2 inch range or can we sneak in a bigger system that can give us something in that 3-6 inch range. The ratio's will no doubt help so just getting .2-.3 can give you or 3 inches. Just a little early but hopefully by this time on Sunday a new thread will be up and running. I need a little more snow for the contest lol

It's a really simple set up this time Tim. If the upper low phases in quicker we'll get nailed! If it remains disjointed then two light snow events instead of one moderate to heavy one. It's as simple as that, It is always about timing and location every single time.

[tpweather]

The set up next week is more common and yes you see the heavier snows in southern Missouri as moisture returns from the GOM. Then can we get the storm to phase. The trend overnight in the right direction and lets see that trend continue. Again with the cold next week and snow falls it can be on the ground for a longer period than normal in mid-late February. Also a snow falling with temps in the low-mid 20's very similar to the January storm and not saying its going to be the same kind of storm but accumulations can happen quickly and since we go below 32 on Sunday pavement temps will be well below that mark once the snow arrives.

Les I believe we have the possible situations down which is good this far in advance and we just wait and see but I expect a new thread to be posted later today LES lol.

[tpweather]

Could be a terrible week for parts of Kentucky with flooding and then a chance of a bigger winter storm. Still believe sooner of later the gov will issue a state of emergency and that could happen later today.

[tpweather]

Nam is running but the last run was interesting and though it only goes out 84 hours it does show I believe a 50/50 low and when that happens the upper low or upper trough digs further southwest which is what we need. Those 50/50 lows are so important and this happens as we get a short period of a negative NAO. If somehow the 50/50 low is not there then more likely some lighter events next week but lets see how the models show that today and the more I see of a 50/50 low form this will most likely be better news for us and the east coast. Plus getting true polar air before a storm is always good imo

[tpweather]

Talked so much about the heavy rain and the system or systems later next week sort of forgot Sunday. Temps will fall overnight and early Sunday but how quickly and do they get below 32 before many of the roads dry up. Not seeing a flash freeze widespread but where the rains runoff later tonight some of the side streets could become icy. Could have a few hours of snow as well though accumulations imo between 1/2 and 1 inch. Snow showers later in the day can drop a quick coating as well but temps will be colder so some slick spots could happen even on main streets and since its raining before hand not much in the way of treatment on the roads. Monday morning could have some slick areas as well. That covers Sunday and early Monday.