One - Two Sucker Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025

[Bgoney]

T and L and cold temps, last 30 minutes in Ohio . Eric , you may get in on this

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[snowbo]

Current conditions: Thunder, lightning, heavy rain and BB sized hail

[MVWxObserver]

T and L and cold temps, last 30 minutes in Ohio . Eric , you may get in on this




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Yes, I heard a clap of thunder and then came a downpour.

[MVWxObserver]

Current conditions: Thunder, lightning, heavy rain and BB sized hail

During the downpour I noticed some BB hail in my area of south Greenville, too.

Back to the One - Two Sucker Punch.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and of course we watch the systems this week and though it looked really good a couple of days ago what happened and part of it is the NAO. Just a few days ago the lovely models showed this heading towards neutral or even negative later in the week. Guess what its done the opposite and is staying more positive. We know why and that is where models can get you in trouble. We saw the AO just tank overnight earlier this week and that one has worked out perfectly. Some of the coldest temps of the season heading into the upper plains this week with several places staying below 0 for quite the period.

Another item or really just how the systems are playing out is we needed more time between systems for the colder air to work in further south after the first system. Still imo going to be a nice storm with plenty of moisture but without the blocking these systems just move through quickly. Will still wait until Sunday's noon model runs as this should have enough information by then and should show any changes.

One of my granddaughter's sent me a nice pic of the snow and will need to get the exact total from my son but looks to be in that 6-8 inch range. I will download that later and no doubt they will be catching up quickly on their snowfall this month and probably into March.

[tron777]

18Z Euro made a comeback for Tuesday.

CVG

Code: Select all

TUE 12Z 11-FEB  -0.8    -4.8    1025      69     100    0.04     558     539    
TUE 18Z 11-FEB   0.9    -3.4    1021      76      96    0.05     558     541    
WED 00Z 12-FEB   0.3    -3.3    1019      84      99    0.04     556     541    
WED 06Z 12-FEB  -1.2    -1.8    1018      87     100    0.12     556     542    

[Trevor]

18Z Euro made a comeback for Tuesday.

CVG

Code: Select all

TUE 12Z 11-FEB  -0.8    -4.8    1025      69     100    0.04     558     539    
TUE 18Z 11-FEB   0.9    -3.4    1021      76      96    0.05     558     541    
WED 00Z 12-FEB   0.3    -3.3    1019      84      99    0.04     556     541    
WED 06Z 12-FEB  -1.2    -1.8    1018      87     100    0.12     556     542    

This is why I want to caution anyone jumping to conclusions on Tuesday. Got to wait for today's storm to get out of the way for models to get a better handle on things. As Josh says, tomorrow is moving day for the Tuesday storm lol.

[tron777]

21Z SREF has a 1.9" mean for CVG now.

[Trevor]

21Z SREF has a 1.9" mean for CVG now.

SREF has been on the northern end of things. Other guidance beginning to show signs of northward movement (not just the Euro). The next three or four runs will be quite interesting.

[tron777]

21Z SREF has a 1.9" mean for CVG now.

SREF has been on the northern end of things. Other guidance beginning to show signs of northward movement (not just the Euro). The next three or four runs will be quite interesting.

I'd love a couple of inches!

[tpweather]

18Z Euro made a comeback for Tuesday.

CVG

Code: Select all

TUE 12Z 11-FEB  -0.8    -4.8    1025      69     100    0.04     558     539    
TUE 18Z 11-FEB   0.9    -3.4    1021      76      96    0.05     558     541    
WED 00Z 12-FEB   0.3    -3.3    1019      84      99    0.04     556     541    
WED 06Z 12-FEB  -1.2    -1.8    1018      87     100    0.12     556     542    

This is why I want to caution anyone jumping to conclusions on Tuesday. Got to wait for today's storm to get out of the way for models to get a better handle on things. As Josh says, tomorrow is moving day for the Tuesday storm lol.

I agree 100p/c and that is why once the current system is out of the USA then the models should have a better handle. Again there is quite a bit of warmth south of the front and look at today with temps getting in the low 70's in southern Kentucky. The front is only going to head so far south before it starts to move northward once we get the next piece of energy. Plenty of moisture and with the first wave we should be all snow. Still believe the second system is stronger but really what you have is a front just hanging around and waiting for the next piece of energy to join the party.

[tpweather]

Lets see if the Nam has moved the precip shield northward. Again a 20 mile difference can make a big difference with these kind of systems. Then the second one imo is the kitchen sink which is what we normally have in the Ohio Valley.

[tpweather]

Which model is doing better these days and overall the Euro seems to have corrected itself. Does not mean its correct for the upcoming week but what I have seen so far its more in line the way I see the systems set up this week. Will it be perfect and no but just trying to figure out the most likely outcome over the next week or so. Again this is cold air heading this way but we are not getting the true arctic air next week but that could some the following week.

[Bgoney]

Nice bump north with QPF the last 12 hrs. Is it done? Is it overdone? Looking forward to the 12z data to roll in!!!

[tpweather]

Nice bump north with QPF the last 12 hrs. Is it done? Is it overdone? Looking forward to the 12z data to roll in!!!

I agree Bgoney and waiting until the noon runs which I believe should no doubt help in forming a forecast. Two decent systems this week and hopefully we have a handle on this or least a decent forecast. I see the SREF went over 2 inches for us so that is a good sign. The first system is one where the dividing line between rain and snow will see the heaviest snow totals. Not a strong low pressure and really and overriding event so the heaviest snow is just north of the rain line.

[tpweather]

No forecast yet but we are in phase 6 of the mjo. Normally the conversation this week would be about very mild temps with showers and thundershowers. Why are we even talking about winter weather and that is the AO. Neutral but heading very negative over the next week. Of course when this happened in early January a great pattern for winter lovers. The NAO though is still positive so systems are moving through like crazy with 3 over the next 7 days. The nao was supposed to turn negative a little sooner but the problem is Europe. The cold that they were suppose to get was just delayed several days and this delayed what happens in Greenland. Needed that strong high there and then you can get one of these low pressures to get stuck and you have the 50/50 low that helps in getting some big time storms.

So at the end of the day even to have winter conditions possible when you are in phase 6 is not easy locally but the AO has come to the rescue and really has been are friend this season in terms of winter weather.

I do believe we see the coldest weather starting around mid-month or just after but when this happens will there be storms waiting and that is a big question at the moment or do we get into clipper city. Will worry about that next weekend as to much business to deal with before that happens lol.

[tpweather]

Looks like my son got just a tad over 10 inches yesterday and that snow is not going anywhere soon. That does help us with colder air coming this way later in the month. I would love to see a storm with 10 inches and no chance of ice or rain mixed in.

[Bgoney]

Nice bump north with QPF the last 12 hrs. Is it done? Is it overdone? Looking forward to the 12z data to roll in!!!

I agree Bgoney and waiting until the noon runs which I believe should no doubt help in forming a forecast. Two decent systems this week and hopefully we have a handle on this or least a decent forecast. I see the SREF went over 2 inches for us so that is a good sign. The first system is one where the dividing line between rain and snow will see the heaviest snow totals. Not a strong low pressure and really and overriding event so the heaviest snow is just north of the rain line.

Similar system and trajectory to what we’ve seen several times since our double digit event. Being on that northern fringe precip shield . My thoughts and amounts in my head for the whole region haven’t changed for a few days but need to see the data from 12z to be a little more confident. The SREF, not saying it’s wrong or right atm, but at it’s long range with these systems, imo hasn’t done to well

[tpweather]

Bgoney I am with you and always had a picture in my mind how this would play out but we know models can sometimes be a problem lol. The first system the way I saw this several days ago was when I mentioned the difference between precip totals say from Dayton to Lexington where you go from very little precip to totals that can exceed 1/2 inch. Where the snow/rain line is and folks who stay all snow just to the north of that line can no doubt get totals in the 2-4 inch range. No doubt we have warmed some and the surface temps will be near the frz mark plus mid-Feb with a higher angle for the sun it can hold down totals especially in that 10a-2pm time period and yes it can be snowing but accumulation is not as easy.

The nam is running and seems sensible to me how its playing out. Will it be dead on with snow totals and placement and probably not but it should be rather close this far out and sometimes these small waves are easier to predict once you get in that 36-48 time period. Where will that bullseye for snow be located and always seem that would be somewhere between CVG and Lexington. Lexington will have more precip fall but will there be several hours where its turn to rain and with CVG how much precip will fall but should be all snow. Sort of split the difference somewhere between Dry Ridge and Georgetown seems like the bullseye of getting that 2-4 inches.

Locally the problem is where does the somewhat heavier band of snow stop moving northward. Brookville,In compared to CVG compared to Maysville,Ky. We try and use I-71 as a dividing line many times and for good reason when you have these systems moving southwest to northeast.

Will wait for the entire noon runs and then break down totals but with this post you can see how my thoughts will probably turn out.

[tron777]

Good morning! Our new trends are favorable... We are bumping north with the Tues wave and bumping south with the Thurs one.

12Z NAM at CVG

Code: Select all

TUE  1P 11-FEB  -1.0    -4.3    1021      93      93    0.12     556     539    
TUE  7P 11-FEB  -0.8    -5.0    1020      94      97    0.13     555     539    
WED  1A 12-FEB  -1.4    -4.7    1019      89      90    0.03     555     539

9Z SREF mean is 2.87" wow! RGEM is next....

[tpweather]

With the noon runs hopefully a better ideal on the 2nd system. The gfs has been way to weak with this system imo and the Euro plus the CMC have it stronger and I believe that is the way to go at this time. This storm should have the kitchen sink over the Ohio Valley. Should be some heavy snow involved with ice issues to heavy rain and maybe thunderstorms involved. Placement is just way to early at this point and mentioned with the 1st storm 20 miles makes a big difference and with this stronger storm 50 miles either further northwest or further southeast has big issues in the type of precip one may end up with. Will we need to wait until the first system is done and that is hard to do has the storms or coming in quickly and there will not much time between systems. The second system has always been the stronger system but it may be much tougher to figure out as well. Stronger storms more warm air from the south but more cold air coming in from the northwest.

[tron777]

The stronger we can get for Tues, is better for us on Thurs for at least starting out with some kind of frozen precip before going over to rain.

[Bgoney]

There is no generous leeway with ratios to help amounts if the qpf is wrong like we’ve had with similar precip shields. To get say 3” inch amounts somewhere you’re going to need every bit of that .30” to get there.

[tpweather]

There is no generous leeway with ratios to help amounts if the qpf is wrong like we’ve had with similar precip shields. To get say 3” inch amounts somewhere you’re going to need every bit of that .30” to get there.

I agree a very wet snow and ratios could be more like 8-1 instead of the normal 10-1 we use. That is why even if some folks get the 1/2 liquid I would put the totals at 2-4 inches for that reason alone.

[Bgoney]

There is no generous leeway with ratios to help amounts if the qpf is wrong like we’ve had with similar precip shields. To get say 3” inch amounts somewhere you’re going to need every bit of that .30” to get there.

I agree a very wet snow and ratios could be more like 8-1 instead of the normal 10-1 we use. That is why even if some folks get the 1/2 liquid I would put the totals at 2-4 inches for that reason alone.

Yep , just another component in the equation