One - Two Sucker Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025

[tron777]

Here's our storm thread folks to cover the Mon night into Tues wave and the late Wed into Thurs wave. We'll begin with the latest thinking from the boys:

Zonal flow persists as we progress into next week with an
active storm track continuing right through the ern third of the
CONUS, particularly through the OH/TN Vlys. The latitudinal
positioning of the boundaries will ultimately dictate what types
of pcpn and what impacts may be felt within the Mon night-Thu
time frame, but confidence is steadily increasing for the
potential for some light snow, particularly S of I-70 Monday
night into early Tuesday, as the first of two distinct systems
track through the region.

System 1 (Monday night into early Tuesday): amidst the zonal
flow aloft, an embedded disturbance will promote the development
of a weak sfc wave across the SE CONUS, with broad dynamically-
induced lift allowing for the expansion of a pcpn shield through
srn parts of the region and the TN Vly Monday night. At this
point in time, the track of this system, according to latest
ensemble mean trends, and the presence of a seasonably cold
airmass already in place, suggests light snow as a favored ptype
for most of the ILN FA, with a mix of rain/snow possible S of
the OH Rvr. The best overlap of lift/moisture/cold profile
should reside across the srn half of the ILN FA, suggesting the
steadiest/most widespread pcpn will, too, be focused across the
srn half of the local area (primarily near/S of I- 71). At this
juncture, it seems increasingly likely that accumulating snow on
the order of several inches will be possible, especially near
the OH Rvr. This being said, the band of steady snow could be
relatively narrow, with subtle shifts N or S still possible from
the scenario described here.

System 2 (late Wednesday into early Thursday): a slightly more
amplified setup than system #1, the midweek system should bring
with it a better chance for mixed wintry precipitation given
stronger dynamics and a tighter, less zonal LL baroclinic zone.
At this juncture, the highest probabilities for accumulating
snow with system 2 should be near/N of I-70, with better chances
for mixed wintry precipitation, or plain rain, across southern
parts of the area.

It is important to note that at these time ranges, the details
of what will unfold with both systems may not come into focus
for another day or two, but there are high probabilities for a
wet and/or wintry pattern to develop next week, with several
rounds of precipitation expected.

[tron777]

What we know:

Two waves of precip. One arrives Mon night into Tuesday and the second late Wed into Thurs. Mainly snow is favored for the first round. The kitchen sink right now, for the second. First one is weaker, second round is stronger.

[tron777]

We'll start looking at the NAM and RGEM tomorrow as round 1 starts to get into their range. For now, the 18Z GFS is a tick south again with the snow shield. Not much for CVG only 0.03" of QPF. Looks good for Central KY.

[Bgoney]

We said very early on that the pattern had the look of the old I71 dividing line (give or take) and it sure looks to be the case still

[Bgoney]

3 latest QPF runs from the GFS/Icon/EU for Tuesday

IMG_3176.gif

[tron777]

18Z GFS is coming in too amp'ed up and it's mainly rain for wave 2 for everybody.

[tron777]

That's the issue... you want Wave 1 to at least be of moderate strength so wave 2 doesn't amplify too much. With the lead wave for Tuesday coming in weak, that does not bode well for us with regards to wave 2. Long ways to go and I'm not predicting anything yet but this is one of many possible outcomes.

[Bgoney]

That's the issue... you want Wave 1 to at least be of moderate strength so wave 2 doesn't amplify too much. With the lead wave for Tuesday coming in weak, that does not bode well for us with regards to wave 2. Long ways to go and I'm not predicting anything yet but this is one of many possible outcomes.

That’s what we talked about about earlier with the waves interacting with each other’s outcome

[tron777]

Esshh,... Only (1) 18Z GEFS member gives us a couple inches of snow for Tues. Rest are very light or a swing and a miss. It's still only a 2-4" deal for central / Southern KY.

[Bgoney]

Need a tourniquet on today’s trends

[tron777]

Need a tourniquet on today’s trends

On to the 18Z Euro to save the day!

[tron777]

No such luck. 0.02" for QPF - snow on Tues and then all rain for the second round.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and today seemed colder than the actual temp. Next week and again I will wait until Sunday and see how things are shaping up. We believe the first system later Monday is going to have a sharp cutoff but again too early for that call. Then will see where we land after that system for the next one later Wednesday and Thursday. Yes there is some decent cold but nothing like we had back in January at least for next week as the coldest may hold off until after the 16th or so. Next week and again tough forecasting and yes the pattern is not bad though more blocking would be nice but that may not happen until after the 16th as well. These systems move in and out quickly and yes the first one should bring mainly snow locally but then with the second one on its heels do we see any colder air work in before round two. The cold is there but is the line of storms going to hold it up to a certain extent and is the second system going to become rather strong and bring some warmer weather northward. Still believe the second system has a much better shot of a decent snow somewhere in the Ohio Valley but wish I knew where and again could be after the first system is over and done.

[Bgoney]

More of the same overnight for Tuesday system. My bigger concern was always the northern extent of the QPF shield especially for the I70 crew but now all of AVLAND is hanging by a thread in that department. Not sure what ILN was looking at yesterday but they finally changed their tune overnight to a more reasonable outcome, atm. We’ll see if anything changes to the good later this morning.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and I agree with Bgoney about the biggest concern is how far north does the precip end up going. So at this moment the chances for accumulating snow may stop rather close to our local area. I mentioned the other day a big difference between say Dayton and Lexington on precip amounts and that is still the case. With this set up somebody in the Ohio Valley just north of the rain/snow line could see 2-4 inches and that is more likely along the I-64 area. How confident in the forecast and on a scale of 1-10 at this moment a 6 at best and though a system will be coming through its the minor details that are the problem.

That wave will out later Tuesday but here is the next problem. Where does the front stall as it waits for the next wave. This is key for the 2nd system as the further south it goes the better shot we see more snow or ice with this wave. The problem here is I am not sure how much of a punch to the cold air and with the mountains to the east this can stall the front in southern Ky or northern Tn. We really need this to stall say in southern Tn for a decent shot of winter weather. With this wave looking to be stronger the front will no doubt head north and throw precip over the colder areas but where does the low end up tracking . Many times its to the south of a snow pack but we don't know where that is at the moment.

So at the end of the day we need the first system to be stronger than shown and the second to be weaker for us to be in the sweet spot for winter weather

Btw my son getting 4-8 inches today and my oldest grandson getting around 5 inches. Boys time to share the wealth

[tron777]

For Tues.... the 6Z NAM had a 1-3" snowfall from NW to SE across our southern / SE counties. 1" for CVG and up to 3" in the far SE like down by Maysville and all that. 12Z NAM coming in now... so we'll see. I am interested to see if we get that correction bump back north or not. It will make a difference in a set up like this.

[tron777]

9Z SREF has about 1.7" on the mean at CVG.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and what a busy week of weather ahead which will probably continue the following week. That is all we can ask for and just chances of snow is always good. Heading into mid-Feb and usually we would see a northward bump but with the nao at this moment still positive systems are flowing quite quickly. Later next week as the nao is forecast to be neutral or slightly negative then systems should slow down and this also is likely to have systems stronger. The AO is negative and forecast to go even more negative than early January. This tells me the cold is not going anywhere soon and you would expect a big storm or two over the remainder of Feb. I am excited about the pattern and though we may not hit the jackpot every time we are still in the ballgame.

[tpweather]

9Z SREF has about 1.7" on the mean at CVG.

No doubt something to watch the next few days. The SREF also had Indy at around 1.46 so that is another location to watch

[tpweather]

The models with the system to our north today switched on Friday and had it weaker only to change tunes last night and back to the original stronger one it had on Thursday. So what does that mean for us and probably a slightly stronger push of cold air later Sunday and Monday. Will this hurt the chances for snow with the early week system and that is possible but also could help us with the second system in keeping colder air around. Folks tons of moving parts at the moment and again 20 miles seems small in terms of distance but if a system decides to track 20 miles further southeast or northwest it can make a big difference in the overall outcome. One item is the STJ is really not that strong and that is also keeping systems from getting to strong and of course less moisture from the GOM but the dividing line between cold and warm is there and that is why some heavy rains this week southeast of us. Will just watch each wave go by and the new set up is going to end up. This is one of those weeks where you could up end up maybe 1 inch of snow or if things fall into place totals over 6 inches. My head hurts lol

[Bgoney]

No changes to the theme for Tuesday from 12z NAM except from its own 6z and 0z run . QPF on the downside

[tpweather]

Bad news or good news or both with the latest NAM run. No doubt precip further south and we end up dry so that is the bad news if you want snow with that system. The good news imo is this can help us out with the second system as colder air should be entrenched further south and if the second system is stronger than the first which I believe should happen this gives us a much better shot of a decent storm later Wednesday and Thursday.

Of course the item that is still a concern is when the NAO turns negative to slow these systems down. We know the first system will fly on by and then later in the week its about timing with the NAO and does it turn negative soon enough for us to slow the system down or does this happen when the storm reaches the east coast. That could be the storm where the low gets stuck in eastern Canada and the high in Greenland is strong and the block begins. Again moving parts and wish I could narrow down the forecast but with such a rapid pace of systems its not easy.

[Bgoney]

6z EU still giving a chance Tuesday for something for the river counties

[CINCINNATI01]

The gfs is funny I've never seen so many systems dance around us literally systems are to far north,south,east,west

[tpweather]

The gfs is funny I've never seen so many systems dance around us literally systems are to far north,south,east,west

We are in the Twilight Zone which was a great tv show and wonderful song by Rush