Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

11am Update on Henri - Still has winds of 70 moving W at 9.

HenriTrack.jpg

[tron777]

Grace has winds of 60 this afternoon getting ready to come back into the S Gulf tonight and tomorrow. She should regain Cat 1 strength then strike mainland Mexico again. If it survives, it would get a new name in the East Pac basin next week.

All eyes are squarely on Henri moving W at 10. A strong TS as of the last update. He has been fighting some upper level shear so until that relaxes, it won't become a cane. It should in time once it moves a little further west.

[tron777]

Anybody see the 18Z GFS and what it does to Boston with Henri? A bad flooding situation for Massachusetts and a lot of New England should something like that occur.

da5df121-3abd-4df6-9e7d-6222464827ad.gif

[MVWxObserver]

In 1964 my folks, I, and then (unborn) sister resided in Rhode Island. Sis was born in Providence, RI of Sept that year. Anyway, there's an area off of RI called Block Island that looks to get battered by Henri, too.

[tron777]

8pm update:

Grace back in the Gulf - Winds at 60 - Moving W towards Mexico
Henri has winds at 65 moving W.

A new wave in the far Eastern ATL now has a 20% chance of development in the next 5 days.

[Bgoney]

Oh Henri will now make landfall in New England as a 1 hurricane or strong TS

ndcHKy5.png

[tron777]

Grace is moving W at 16 with winds of 70 mph. Cane status is coming.

Henri has winds of 65 still moving WNW at 9 so the slow turn to the north is beginning.

[tron777]

Many models showing Henri making a landfall now.

NAM - NYC
GFS / Euro - Mass

[Bgoney]

Grace should have no problem reaching cat 2 and a slim chance at 3

[tron777]

Grace should have no problem reaching cat 2 and a slim chance at 3

Agree... she's up to 85 now as of the latest update.

[tpweather]

Grace is interesting and will sort of stall the pattern by a few days but once she is gone we should get a decent shot of cool air in here. Love seeing the northern plains really starting to cool down and they have been rather hot this summer but nothing like the west. Seeing those temps in the 70's during the day and 50's at night for several days is a good sign that fall is right around the corner and for those folks September is the period with a big change compared to us which is usually October

[Bgoney]

Mods on Henri are upping the effects big time for not only New England but for A good chunk of the Northeast. Some good agreement coming in that once landfall , stalls or does a loop back west before exiting the region. Doing this over the concrete jungles of the coast is flash flood Armageddon

[tron777]

Shear map - Henri is moving towards lower shear so some strengthening should occur here pretty soon.

HenriShear.png

[tron777]

12Z GFS Track looked pretty bad for Henri. A left hook right into CT and Mass. then stalls it inland for a bit before moving out. A flooding nightmare IMO coming for New England.

[Bgoney]

Full moon and high tide

[Bgoney]

Central Long Island to NYC most likely landfall , IMO only.

[tron777]

Central Long Island to NYC most likely landfall , IMO only.

That's the furthest west on the guidance., NAM / UKIE and a lot of hurricane models have gone that route. I think a CT landfall is also very possible too. Going to be bad either way for the region.

[tron777]

-NAO so you always run this risk. With Sandy the -NAO was very strong. It is just strong enough this go around with the timing of an upper low swinging thru to capture it.

[Bgoney]

The NHC does such an outstanding job , but, you knew there was a but, they trust the EU just a tad to much, and the other top models a tad to little. They cant get Sandy off their brains . The EU just isn't the same lone ranger anymore, and for the most part has been playing catch-up on Henri

[tron777]

The 12Z Euro has shifted west and likes your NYC idea Bgoney. Euro has been awful the last 2 years. Their last upgrade to try and correct the tropical issues has failed.

[tron777]

Grace is up to 90 mph now. Henri up to 70 mph.

[Bgoney]

Henri has about 12-18 hrs to still strengthen before cooler waters. Should be a hurricane shortly if not already. Still stick to my cone of a central long Island to NYC landfall as a cat 1 or strong TS. Full moon and high tide combo not going to help the coast any with the surge.

[tpweather]

Another tropical that is moving very quickly. In this case the amount of rain will be reduced because of the speed but when you have one moving quickly those winds at first can really cause some damage. Not familiar with how the layout is in the northeast but my guess is Long Island is just that an island that is flat. If someone has any knowledge of the area that would be helpful

[tron777]

Grace was a Cat 3 prior to making landfall in Mexico. Over Central Mexico with winds of 90 mph. Eventually Grace will be on the East Pac side and will get a new name probably next week.

Henri has winds of 70 still this morning. He is becoming better organized and I'd go with a weak Cat 1 on the next update. Landfall continues to look more and more like New York and esp Eastern Long Island over by Montauk .

[tron777]

Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI IS NOW A HURRICANE...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 72.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES