February 2025 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

For this weekend, we look to be dry with temps in the mid 40s Sat, and the 50s Sun. U40s to L50s for early next week. Models diverge with regards to precip after that. Still a good signal for a bigger system around the 8th or so as well.

[tron777]

12Z Euro today had a nice overrunning event for snow lovers around the 11-12th. Obviously that'll change. However, if you saw BG's video today, by the 2nd week of Feb a stalled out boundary will be in the region. We want it to our south so we can get snow versus rain. It'll be an interesting pattern if the high to the north can press down the SE Ridge just enough.

[Bgoney]

First week snow chances for the lower 48

IMG_3131.png

[tron777]

First week snow chances for the lower 48



IMG_3131.png

Not good for week 1. For Weeks 2 and 3 that map should be improving with time. For us locally, I like the period from around the 10th thru 2/14, We should have an overrunning event occur during that window. Hopefully, we'll be on the correct side of the boundary.

[tpweather]

First week snow chances for the lower 48



IMG_3131.png

Not good for week 1. For Weeks 2 and 3 that map should be improving with time. For us locally, I like the period from around the 10th thru 2/14, We should have an overrunning event occur during that window. Hopefully, we'll be on the correct side of the boundary.

Great Post. Next the NAO is going to be positive and this means the flow should be rather quick. For us normally in this pattern we are mainly rain for precip type. The AO which starts out slightly positive is expected to head towards neutral and this tells me a portion of the polar vortex is once again trying to stretch out. How far south is the question and that also helps to determine where a boundary will set up. The southeast ridge looks to be getting a tad stronger and this also is in the equation where a boundary will set up. The pna should remain slightly positive which it has for the most part all winter long so this does help a tad in keeping a longer warm spell happening.

Snow pack and yes that is going to be getting less and less for many folks and when you have no snow cover to the west milder air can no doubt override cooler air unless you get enough push from the PV. So what happens after next week and again I am just in a holding pattern at the moment but next week I believe is going to be busy and again model runs will vary more so than normal so yes one day a nice snow storm and the next run we are sunny and 55.

[tron777]

I agree Tim.... models are struggling with the individual features. What looks to be known is a stalled out frontal boundary. Its location, strength of each wave moving along it, as well as the cold air pressing in from the north are all unknowns at this time for the period in question. I expect rain with the next couple of systems but after that, wintry action is certainly in play.

[Bgoney]

I dont think anything (reasons)has changed for me from Les’s opening thread post for the first half of Feb.
Midwest and Ohio river cutters for that time period with the cold shots coming after low/frontal passage

[tron777]

I dont think anything (reasons)has changed for me from Les’s opening thread post for the first half of Feb.
Midwest and Ohio river cutters for that time period with the cold shots coming after low/frontal passage

Agreed... we look to have rainers for the 1st week of the new month. Better chances for wintry precip come Weeks 2 and 3.

[tron777]

12Z Guidance echoes the above (including ensembles) very well today!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and what are some of the tellies showing us for the month of February. First the mjo at this point shows the warmer phases through mid-month. The Ao is trying to head towards neutral ,the Nao continues to be positive and the Pna is really getting closer to neutral. So what does this mean for us weather wise . This really adds up to a rather strong flow across the USA with systems coming into the western USA and working across the country. Is this a good pattern for winter weather and imo the answer is no at least for the 1st half of the month. Without blocking to our northeast systems will just move quickly and when this happens these systems will pass near us or to the north. That is usually a sign of mainly rain for us. What we need is a system to slow down and grab hold of the cold in Canada and form a bigger storm. At the moment I am not seeing that happening. That is my 2 cents on the 1st half of February and no doubt a mild and wet period for us but chances of anything in the winter precip department looks low.

[tron777]

DT put out as special This Week in Weather yesterday for the second half of winter. It's very informative.

[tron777]

An interesting video from Travis too this morning

[tron777]

The first week of Feb continues to look mild with highs in the 40s and 50s. We even have a day in the 60s by Thursday of next week! I have seen some model runs get us to 70 degrees. Wow! That will depend on when the rain arrives on Thurs with that stronger frontal system we have been watching (6-7th). We turn cooler after that. Do we see more rain makers after that or can some wintry action occur? It depends on the MJO. GFS is warmer, Euro colder as a result of that. We will need another week IMO to see how this shakes out.

[tpweather]

The first week of Feb continues to look mild with highs in the 40s and 50s. We even have a day in the 60s by Thursday of next week! I have seen some model runs get us to 70 degrees. Wow! That will depend on when the rain arrives on Thurs with that stronger frontal system we have been watching (6-7th). We turn cooler after that. Do we see more rain makers after that or can some wintry action occur? It depends on the MJO. GFS is warmer, Euro colder as a result of that. We will need another week IMO to see how this shakes out.

Good Morning Les and again February looks very busy. I have it milder through mid-month and I agree the Mjo will no doubt have an influence of the weather next month but to what extent is still not known. The reason I see the milder air continuing through mid month is the trough over the western mainland and also southeast Alaska and southwest Canada. These can be tough to break and if you like snow the first half of February looks great for Juneau,Alaska. Do we see ridging heading back into Alaska and it looks like that could happen but how long does it take to shake up the trough. Many questions and fewer answers lol. The one item that I like for a return to some winter weather later next month is snowfall in southern Canada and the northern plains. Yes I wish this would extend further south into the central plains but at least imo a decent amount of snow for the northern say 1/4 of the country and especially southern Canada. When we look back in November southern Canada got tons of snow and to me this was very important in bringing the colder air in here for January. Will this repeat and its possible as we know patterns tend to repeat quite often. Do we get the blocking though in Greenland and northeast Canada and that can happen especially if we get the ridging to push further east in about 10 days or so. Predicting February looks much tougher than January and chances for busts are greater.

[tron777]

Nice post Tim! We'll have to see what happens with the MJO. We want it to go into the neutral circle versus Phase 5 and 6. If it can get into the neutral circle then come back out in Phase 7 by late Feb, then we should be set up post 2/20 thru the first part of March for winter's last stand. For snow lovers, this is the progression we want to see.

[winterstormjoe]

DT put out as special This Week in Weather yesterday for the second half of winter. It's very informative.

Wow, he not kidding with no BS on the question marks for mid to late Feb into early March. Stay tuned

[tron777]

DT put out as special This Week in Weather yesterday for the second half of winter. It's very informative.

Wow, he not kidding with no BS on the question marks for mid to late Feb into early March. Stay tuned

Yeah... it is very uncertain Joe. We will need another week or so as I mentioned earlier to see how the MJO responds.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Dry conditions are expected until we get towards Wed and Thurs of next week. Rain with the warm front on Wed along with the cold front for Thurs, should bring us a couple of rounds of rain and thunder. Severe wx is not expected at this time. Then we get one more rain maker next weekend around the 8-9th. After that, the boundary is far enough south that we'll have wave and after wave of wintry precip from 2-10 thru 2-14 maybe even longer depending on the model So far, the idea of a change back to winter is looking good around 2/10 and beyond.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has the next two systems as rain makers. Then we're ready to receive some overrunning snow by the 11th. After that snow, ice, and rain are all possible for the region. After 2/10, continues to look very interesting to me from a snow lover standpoint.

[tron777]

Feb Stats.jpg

[tron777]

12Z CMC after the 2 rain makers, brings out the energy in 1 piece for the 11th. That is a big winter storm being shown at Day 10. 12Z GEFS members show all precip type with sleet and frz rain being the most at this time. This can change of course, but I do think that after the 10th, we are game on for wintry weather in the OV. Who gets what and how much, remains to be seen from this distance. The point... winter is not over. Not even close to being over.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is in good agreement until after Day 10. The model has a cutter for the Feb 11th system which brings all the snow to Michigan. It does bring us cold air and follow up light snows on Valentine's Day.

[tron777]

The EPS at 500 MB sure looks good in the longer term with ridging over AK and Scandinavia and they connect up top to form a ridge bridge. Been seeing all models showing some type of a PV split too. I could see it happening esp if the ridge bridge idea comes to fruition.

EPS.gif

[tpweather]

Les some wonderful posts. What happens over the next week will also help in determine where a front lines up across the USA. No doubt rain next week and then lets see where we are at that time. Want to see more snows to the north and west and no doubt the northern 1/4 of the USA plus southern Canada going to get some decent snow cover. Does that extend further south later next week and not sure but if we can get the central plains to have some decent snows the chances for us getting in on some winter weather after next week goes up.

[tron777]

Thanks Tim! Lots of uncertainty for sure, but things are beginning to look more clear. I do think after 2/10 we are colder again. The location of the boundary and how strong each wave is that moves along it, are the unknowns right now. The pattern going to be active. No doubt about that.