February 2025 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Models look wet to open up February. They show a 2 part system. Once the upper low comes out of the SW, it tracks well to our NW pushing a cold front in here. Then a secondary low moves up along the front. GFS and CMC have rain and the Euro a strong Apps runner which tries to change us over to snow. Whatever happens.... we do look to cool down a bit again after this system moves thru.

As far as more sustainable cold goes, that will depend on if the MJO goes into the COD and remerges into phase 7, 8, 1 and 2 again. Or... is this delayed since the MJO goes thru 4-6 (warmer phases first)? If all goes according to plan for snow lovers... post 2/20 into the month of March could offer up a wintry period. For now, I do think we turn colder again for the 2nd week of Feb. albeit briefly. Any snow chances right now are TBD from this distance. The month does look active most certainly so rain, snow, ice, and even t-storms could certainly occur. Looks like a wild and active month coming up.

Discuss!

[Bgoney]

I agree Les , Like we talked about in the January thread, EPS and CPC are onboard for a more active cutter type pattern for the plains /midwest/OV , with the January month long dominance of the NWflow pattern giving way to at least a more zonal flow and at times SWflow.

[tron777]

Yeah.... moisture doesn't look to be a problem. Storm track and temps will be at times. But if you get a strong enough cutter, that can send in a fresh batch of cold air. Then get another storm to form on its heels and we can get snow that way too. It should be an interesting month to track after we're done with the next week or so or boring weather.

[Bgoney]

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[tpweather]

Good Morning and yes February looks quite busy. So far the weather this winter season has turned out almost exactly how we thought would happen which seldom happens. February looks very busy and like Les mentioned is what happens to the mjo next month. My forecast before winter started was February would be very mild and lead us into an earlier than normal start to spring compared to many the last 10 years or so. Not a fan of winter lasting into late March and April. If we get some bigger systems next month I agree that we should be able to tap some of the cold air available in Canada but can the cold last as the dreaded southeast ridge looks to be in play finally. Good news for the west coast as they really need the rainfall especially in California as this is their rainy season and this would also help with the fires out there. So yes still love to see more snow but hoping the areas out west end up with some decent rains.

[tron777]

Per the Aussies, we are solidly in Phase 3 which isn't cold or warm. About normal so that is exactly what we are seeing. 30s and 40s. We don't know how fast the wave weakens and how far along it gets before it collapses. If you want to not torch and get back to a wintry pattern again before we call it curtains for another year... Then you want it to start weakening right now. The MJO models are literally all over the place with there respective solutions. I would expect the OP models to be all over the place from run to run as well. We'll need to, as usual, take an Ensemble approach to longer term forecasting and trying to sniff out the next snow event.

All ensembles have the -EPO continuing with ridging over Alaska. That never goes away which is wonderful news. However... the solution we get depends on its orientation. Aleutian Islands / Bering Sea or more over the Interior / Western Canada? That makes a big difference with the down stream, SE ridge. Note the long range 500 MB maps below from the GEFS and EPS. GEFS has a stronger SE ridge due to the location of the Eastern and Northern Pacific ridging or the EPO. EPS has it in a better location so the SE ridge is much flatter. Both are stormy solutions. One is lake cutter with mainly rain makers and the other would offer up better wintry chances for us. We'll have to wait and see. That is largely dependent on what the MJO does. These things are going to be our main opening discussion for how February is going to go and when we return to a colder pattern. If we stay mild, flooding will eventually become a problem IMO. So you want it cold while it's active so the water can be released more slowly.

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[tpweather]

Great post Les and can we get the nao and ao back to negative. The nao seems to be more negative in recent years in Feb and March and if we can see that some of the systems can grab some cold air and we have a better shot of winter precip. The one item that has stayed the same all season is the pna has been positive so that is one reason we stayed on the colder side and the southeast ridge stayed away. We still need the blocking to help next month and if that does not happen then I am with you that flooding could become a problem. I believe its going to be active and that is the easy part of the forecast but what form is completely different animal.

[Bgoney]

MJO will have a lot to say when the -NAO comes back for a stay. More often than not if the MJO can get to the pacific phases of 6/7(mainly7 much like late Dec) , the NAO usually responds (lag time) by going Negative. In regards to the SEridge, models have overdone that when in the long ranges all winter, so I’ll believe a staunch SEridge when I see it

[tron777]

So far, the data is showing that we get a few rainers then after 2/8 is winter going to make a comeback earlier then expected? If you believe then EPS then yes. Even 18Z OP GFS has a ridge bridge almost set up with over the top blocking. GEFS does not agree however.

[tron777]

Good morning! Look for rain to kick off Feb this Sat with mild conditions. I see another big rain maker ending as flakes around the 7-8th as well. Then, I am expecting our colder pattern to return along with an active storm track. The EPS IMO is handling the overall pattern and MJO better versus the GEFS. GEFS is bombing badly when it comes to the MJO. Let's see in the next week or so how this post ages.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les. Even though Alaska is getting cold this week after quite a bit of storminess the cold is not brutal by Alaska standards and that has been the case much of the winter for them. Yes we get milder the next few weeks but like Les mentioned nothing blow torch by any means. One item all winter has been a rather cold southern Canada compared to normal as the northern part has seen just normal or slightly above normal temps. The cold in southern Canada started back in November with a very snow month which has kept the cold there all winter long. This will help once we get the storminess going in February as each storm will have a chance to tap into the colder air. Do I expect a repeat of January and no but if the timing is correct we could see a storm or two that gives us some winter weather. How long does this cold in mid-Feb last and my prediction in November was this would be a mild month and early start to spring but need to rethink that and one reason is how the pattern is developing.

Will be glad to sort of start over with the early month rains cleaning up the mess and hopefully the first few rounds of rain are not to heavy as this can no doubt start cause some flooding

[airwolf76]

Lester i think you hit the nail on the head with your long range thoughts with winter reload coming around second weekend of Feb

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and waiting on the afternoon models run and a few items and one is timing of systems heading this way. I believe with a positive NAO that systems will be moving quite fast and this would give us a better shot of rain on Friday as models had slowed down the process but I believe earlier than later for rains. This should help in keeping any heavy rains out of the area with faster movement. I believe the models will go into their normal bias with the Euro holding to much energy in the southwest and the gfs to fast though it has been slower with the late week storm.

Funny but the Euro has done well with the longer term this winter but once it gets to that 5-7 period its had problems only to correct much nearer an event. The GFS once again wacky in the long term but that model was better than the Euro in the 5-7 day range. The CMC has its usual 2-3 systems a winter that it hits but once again within 48 hours the model always goes off the track for some reason.

So the arctic air mass for the most part gone will the models do better and I believe they will. The La Nina event and one that if you go by definition alone it will not be classified as a La Nina event because you need 3 straight months of 0.5 and below and during the past 3 months there was a period it was not at 0.5. Saying that the past month or so has been La Nina pattern and was well within the 0.5 and below.

I believe its no doubt winding down and usually in these events whether it be La Nina or El Nino when they either gain a lot of strength or start to fall apart is when you can see some storminess on the rise.

[tron777]

LOL... Thurs Feb 6th on the 12Z GFS has us in the upper 60s with a severe wx outbreak / supercells in the Plains. Feb maybe an extreme month with all weather modes possible.

[tpweather]

LOL... Thurs Feb 6th on the 12Z GFS has us in the upper 60s with a severe wx outbreak / supercells in the Plains. Feb maybe an extreme month with all weather modes possible.

Bring out the shorts and please watch for the glare lol

[tron777]

LOL... Thurs Feb 6th on the 12Z GFS has us in the upper 60s with a severe wx outbreak / supercells in the Plains. Feb maybe an extreme month with all weather modes possible.

Bring out the shorts and please watch for the glare lol

I like the look though after that storm passes. An active pattern with a flatter SE ridge and big incoming highs to stop storms from cutting. A very interesting look.

[tpweather]

Good afternoon and can get quite windy later today and overnight. The longer term in February and it looks like models are starting to pick up on the milder phases of the mjo. If the mjo continues to head into phase 6 for a longer period it may be awhile before we get back to some decent shots of winter weather. The first ten days look stormy but mild so we should get some decent rainfall and hopefully the first system later this week can bring an inch or so and hopefully the snow will be gone by then but the ground itself will probably be somewhat frozen. Then next week looks like a wet period but just trying to figure out timing and looks like mainly rain and if we can get another inch or so its not a problem. As we head into the period Feb-Apr is the prime time for some flooding almost every year. At the moment nothing looks to bad since snow on the ground upstream is not that deep. If we get a few heavier rain bouts then we will need to watch and of course folks who live in the flood areas know the drill every year.

The forecast for the nao and ao still not in a good spot for winter weather here locally and even the pna may go negative and that has not happened all season long and yes if that happens we should see much milder air in here. With folks west of here very little snow pack and you get that southerly wind in Feb and temps can no doubt get above 60 for a few days. My hope is that the second half of Feb gives us more chances and by March I am ready for spring

[Bgoney]

Not much snow anywhere in the lower 48 the next 7 days, outside Mtn. or lakes areas

[Bgoney]

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From Oz ensembles for first 10 days at 5 day average anomalies

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[tron777]

Ensembles were warmer this afternoon with a more pronounced SE ridge. Lots of moving and changing going on in the atmosphere.

[tron777]

Tim mentioned in his last post (see the January thread) about the jets possibly phasing down the road for a bigger system. I couldn't agree more and to me that system is the one coming around Feb 8th which is the one I am expecting to send us back into a colder regime. Again, let me be clear, I am not expecting the cold of January to return (as far as intensity and longevity goes). But I am monitoring air cold enough for snow to go along with the active pattern. Lots of time to keep an eye on this but those have been my thoughts for a while now.

[House of Cards]

I will gladly take a round or two of snow but I am happy if that cold from January doesn't have to be part of the deal.

[tron777]

I will gladly take a round or two of snow but I am happy if that cold from January doesn't have to be part of the deal.

Cold wise, I think we're done with the kind of cold we saw in January.

[House of Cards]

Good thing! I finally got my ground-level Christmas lights all put away Sunday. Waiting for my Second-story Man to come back and take down my Icicle lights off the gutters and eaves, but don't like to mess with any of that until the temps get out of the freezer so the brittle wires don't end up cracked. Almost time to start looking for my replacement Gazebo for the back patio next.....

[tron777]

Good thing! I finally got my ground-level Christmas lights all put away Sunday. Waiting for my Second-story Man to come back and take down my Icicle lights off the gutters and eaves, but don't like to mess with any of that until the temps get out of the freezer so the brittle wires don't end up cracked. Almost time to start looking for my replacement Gazebo for the back patio next.....

I hear ya Dave. The bottom part of my driveway is always a slip and fall risk when the snow pack melts. Had to throw a little more salt out there before I left for work this morning. Hopefully, the rest of the ice will thaw today. It helps when we don't go below freezing at night too and soon we won't be doing that for a while. (With the exception of Wed night).