January 2025 Wx Discussion

[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

[tron777]

For the rest of January, we are watching Sun / Mon still. At this time, It's a very low chance we see snow. I won't remove it from the table yet, but the chances aren't great right now. Then, we'll need to see how long it takes the energy to roll out of the SW. This happens by the end of this month / early Feb time frame. Is there any cold air left by then for some snow or it is a rain event? Too early to know this far out. Then we're into our new monthly thread by then anyway.

[Bgoney]

Historic Low Temperatures (so far this morning):

New Iberia, LA: 1 (shatters all-time record of 9 from 1962)
Lafayette, LA: 4 (broke all-time record of 6 from 1899)
Lake Charles: 6 (all-time record is 3 from 1899)
Beaumont: 8 (broke all-time record of 10 from 1906)

[tron777]

11 now at CVG... it doesn't look like we'll reach those lower 20s today IMO.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY reached 20 and CMH 19 today.

[tron777]

Snow cover / snow depth map as of about midnight, last night:

SnowDepth.jpg

[tron777]

Morning lows per Gumball at Local 12:

Overnight Lows.jpg

[tron777]

18Z GFS has completely folded to the foreign models now for Sunday / Monday. That one now looks to be on life support.

[Bgoney]

Saw a bald eagle on the drive home flying parallel to my vehicle. There was a dead deer in the field about 50 feet off the road he was interested in

[airwolf76]

went down to -7 here this morning. that is the lowest i have ever seen but not record low for the area which is around -20

[MVWxObserver]

18Z GFS has completely folded to the foreign models now for Sunday / Monday. That one now looks to be on life support.

[tron777]

Good morning all! A few snow showers later today into this evening then we drop back the temps for Friday. We rebound this weekend with dry skies. The mild weather and dry conditions continues into next week. Once that cut off low decides to come out of the SW US, that looks to be our next significant weather system. It is due in here sometime between 1/31 and 2/2. What is the track? Do we have any cold air around or not? Foreign models give us rain, and in typical GFS fashion, snow. This looks to be the next system to keep our eye on. Looking boring until then.

[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

Awesome! Glad you found those totals Bgoney. Simply amazing!!! Mother Nature sometimes will do something that is so rare that you just can't help but stand back and just say "wow!"

[Bgoney]

Yesterday’s temps for a few local stations

IMG_3095.jpeg

[tron777]

Looks like Newark is the winner at -9. Not too shabby considering that our snowpack is almost gone.

[Bgoney]

WPC awfully dry for much of the country next 7 days

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[tron777]

WPC awfully dry for much of the country next 7 days

Agreed. The active pattern begins with that system we are watching coming out of the SW by the end of the month or the beginning of Feb. There will be more systems after that which kick starts the active pattern. Euro weeklies continue to show well above avg precip for Feb. Could be snow, rain, t-storms, etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see all three occur this month.

[Bgoney]

WPC awfully dry for much of the country next 7 days

Agreed. The active pattern begins with that system we are watching coming out of the SW by the end of the month or the beginning of Feb. There will be more systems after that which kick starts the active pattern. Euro weeklies continue to show well above avg precip for Feb. Could be snow, rain, t-storms, etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see all three occur this month.

Yea I just saw those, they match the monthly precipitation map(Feb) from the wpc i posted the other day . If the pattern stays in lock step with the mjo , it bodes well , finally, for the Midwest and plains states for cutters and above normal qpf for the OV

[tron777]

WPC awfully dry for much of the country next 7 days

Agreed. The active pattern begins with that system we are watching coming out of the SW by the end of the month or the beginning of Feb. There will be more systems after that which kick starts the active pattern. Euro weeklies continue to show well above avg precip for Feb. Could be snow, rain, t-storms, etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see all three occur this month.

Yea I just saw those, they match the monthly precipitation map(Feb) from the wpc i posted the other day . If the pattern stays in lock step with the mjo , it bodes well , finally, for the Midwest and plains states for cutters and above normal qpf for the OV

We're in Phase 3 now. Do we go into the COD or keep going? That needs to be watched as that should tell us how strong the SE ridge is going to be as well as duration of this milder pattern as well.

[tron777]

Nothing here in Mason as of yet, but CVG is reporting light snow now as of 10am. Flurries really with a vis of 9 miles lol

[tron777]

Quick update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No significant changes needed for the morning update. Increasing
clouds and scattered flurries ahead of a warm front this
morning will transition to snow showers this afternoon ahead of
a cold front. Temperatures will rise into the 20s with even a
few 30s in the south.

[tron777]

Seeing some flurries here in Mason.... just like the other day, fine flakes and not expecting much, if any, in the way of accum.

[tron777]

Special Weather Statement from the boys:

...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

A cold front will move through the area this afternoon and
evening, bringing scattered snow showers. While accumulations will
generally be less than one half inch, the showers could result in
reductions in visibility and scattered slick spots, to include
during the evening commute.