January 2025 Wx Discussion

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues to show the players on the field. Look at Sunday morning at 120 hours. Low over the SW and moisture moving north out of the Gulf into Texas and AR.

On this run it's a swing and a miss (for the most part) but that will continue to change as the week rolls on. The only issue I have is not seeing any model support other then the GEFS.

[tron777]

IMG_3086.jpeg

That's awesome! (Gulf of America)

[BookNerdCarp]

IMBY this morning

https://share.cleanshot.com/tvXTKXhF

[snowbo]

Sister-in-law reporting snow on Dauphin Island, Alabama which is in the aforementioned gulf! Continues to amaze me!

[tron777]

Seeing a steady light snow in Mason with fine flakes right now too.

[Bgoney]

12Z GFS continues to show the players on the field. Look at Sunday morning at 120 hours. Low over the SW and moisture moving north out of the Gulf into Texas and AR.

On this run it's a swing and a miss (for the most part) but that will continue to change as the week rolls on. The only issue I have is not seeing any model support other then the GEFS.

Yea, it’s a trend towards the EU/Eps

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues to show the players on the field. Look at Sunday morning at 120 hours. Low over the SW and moisture moving north out of the Gulf into Texas and AR.

On this run it's a swing and a miss (for the most part) but that will continue to change as the week rolls on. The only issue I have is not seeing any model support other then the GEFS.

Yea, it’s a trend towards the EU/Eps

It's a shame seeing all of that energy over the SW getting left behind. Sigh... what could have been.

[Bgoney]

I think it also has to do with how quickly the High off the SE coast scoots off to the east. Previous GFS runs had the High sticking around closer to the coast longer giving a chance for better return flow upriver. Latest GFS is more out in the Atlantic sooner , not giving the SW flow much of a chance to move northward

[tron777]

I think it also has to do with how quickly the High off the SE coast scoots off to the east. Previous GFS runs had the High sticking around closer to the coast longer giving a chance for better return flow upriver. Latest GFS is more out in the Atlantic sooner , not giving the SW flow much of a chance to move northward

Euro is trying but it ultimately fails too.

[Bgoney]

12z EPS is the same as Oz . A little bit of moisture into the Tennessee valley

[CINCINNATI01]

Wow looks like a very boring stretch of weather I don't see anything in the works till the 5th and even then it'll probably change

[tron777]

The FL state wide snowfall record of 4" occurred in Milton, FL back in 1954. They currently have 2" there on the ground per a storm chaser's video I am watching on YouTube. JLR storm chasers. I think that record could get broken by this system. Freaking crazy!!!

[MVWxObserver]

Greenville City Schools have decided to close tomorrow because of the extreme cold.

Wise decision as ILN has forecast -7F for Wed morning and only topping out at around 16 for the afternoon.

[Bgoney]

Mobile AL radar . All snow well into the GOA

5-9” totals now predicted for NOLA

IMG_3087.gif

[winterstormjoe]

This is my brother's house and St. Mary's across the street, he lives about 6 miles north of downtown NOLA and a mile south of I-10

[winterstormjoe]

He said it's still snowing hard!

[winterstormjoe]

He said it's still snowing hard! Oh, neighbors said that they've only had flurries over the decades and nothing like this!

[tpweather]

Great pics Joe. What a beautiful house

[tron777]

It's a once in a lifetime type of storm. Some of those people have never even seen snow before. I think that FL state wide snowfall record is going to be broken.

[tpweather]

Well that was a nice warm up today. Temps on the way down and below zero seems finally like a cinch. Thursday a few more flurries or snow globe alert at times. Then the true warm up begins. Models again having problems like last week and arctic air masses like this mess up models. Once we get the system out to sea and the departing coldest of air as well they will get back to their normal self. Still expected an overrunning event later this weekend and early next week. Maybe Friday the models will catch on but if anything like last week I am not so sure. Just not enough data for the models to use with this type of pattern so it throws out something I guess. Stay warm and by the weekend it will feel like a spring day lol

[tron777]

Agreed Tim... more 30s and 40s in the offing which is seasonal for February versus the teens and 20s that we've been seeing. Cold air will always be nearby so with the right set up we can still snow. I was thinking also Tim about the overrunning event. Usually, a departing arctic airmass is a good thing with regards to getting one of those set up's to develop. Strong WAA from the Gulf and then all you need is a baroclinic boundary and a low pressure system to track along it to provied some lift and bingo!

In this case, Bgoney mentioned the high to the east earlier today. Does it stay put and act to shear the energy our or does it get out of the way so it can gain some latitude and then we get better moisture return. Also, it does appear that some energy is going to stay over the SW. How much comes out for this system to be able to work with? All questions we just won't know until 72 hours or so out.

[tron777]

5 at CVG and IMBY currently. We're gonna tank tonight if we can lose some of that wind.

[tron777]

History in the making. Many records broken, some all time! NOLA, Mobile, and Pensacola all have all time snowfall records broken! The FL state record, shattered! Can't wait to see what the final totals are come tomorrow. Seeing a lot of 6-10"+ reports. Wow!

[Spacejunk]

Temps dropping like a rock, every few minutes another 1/10 degree down. -2.7 atm

[Spacejunk]

10:00pm, -6.3