January 2025 Wx Discussion

[tron777]

Even the 12Z Euro AI isn't that cold. After Day 10, you can toss the OP Euro from this afternoon. Straight into the abyss.

[Bgoney]

IMG_3060.jpeg

IMG_3061.gif

[tron777]

WAVE 3 in LOU's call for Sunday.

Wave3 for Sunday.jpg

[tron777]

Gumball posted this on his FB page today:

Longest stretches with more then 6" of snow on the ground in #Cincinnati:

1.) 1977 - 25 days
2.) 1918 - 20 days
3.) 1978 - 19 days
4.) 2010 - 12 days
5.) 1917 - 11 days
6.) 1985 - 9 days
7.) 1996 & 2025 - 7 days
8.) 2021 - 6 days ❄

[Bgoney]

I think I’d broad brush our area for an inch or less for Sunday, even our SE counties

[tron777]

18Z GFS has the southern energy weak and fast and the northern stream energy we get next Friday from the upper level system. A shame these two can't get together.

Code: Select all

CVG

FRI 12Z 24-JAN  -2.7    -8.5    1013      94      98    0.04     527     517    
FRI 18Z 24-JAN  -1.7   -13.1    1012      57      96    0.06     522     513    
SAT 00Z 25-JAN  -4.6   -14.1    1013      79     100    0.02     520     510    
SAT 06Z 25-JAN  -8.0   -17.4    1015      80      99    0.03     517     506    
SAT 12Z 25-JAN  -8.4   -15.1    1019      85      86    0.01     521     506    
SAT 18Z 25-JAN  -4.0   -14.9    1025      65      63    0.01     532     512 

[tron777]

The pattern really gets active by Day 10 with a fairly strong SE ridge showing up.

[tron777]

CVG reported a 4" snow depth today but that was at 7am this morning. After a day in the 40s and a low above freezing tonight followed by a quarter inch or so of rain... I'd say the snow pack should be reduced to an inch or two tops. SE Crew has best chance for a quick refresher as well as a couple isolated LES areas off of Michigan Sun morning. My hood will probably me in no mans land on this one.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and we await the rainfall overnight. I thought for sure fog we be an issue and that did not happen. I missed that forecast but believe late Saturday into Sunday I feel confident that has been a good call. I started feeling better when I saw a few mets in the last few days start to get onboard with that system and watched Kevin tonight and he mentioned that models just don't handle true arctic fronts. He also has outlined his forecast next week which is very similar to how I see the pattern developing next week. Should see by Saturday morning winter weather advisories for folks in southeast Kentucky and maybe up to I-64 east of I-75. The ratios will be 20-1 and that is why these systems that don't have tons of moisture can produce some decent snows. Funny to say but the CMC will end up being the winner this week if the system happens Sunday. So this week the models really get a bad grade for the weekend except the CMC of the 3 major models.