January 2025 Wx Discussion

[Bgoney]

12z EU is brutal for the victims of Helene. That would be awful

[tron777]

12Z Euro is coming in colder for Sat. A cold rain / wintry slop kind of stuff. Surface temps are too warm for accum though.

Code: Select all

CVG

SAT 12Z 18-JAN   0.9    -1.1    1009      98      99    0.20     547     540    
SAT 18Z 18-JAN   2.5    -1.6    1008      92     100    0.06     546     539    
SUN 00Z 19-JAN   0.8    -5.3    1013      91      68    0.03     545     534  

Then the cold takes over and we are cold and dry thru Day 10. it also blows up a southern winter storm and misses us to the south (not by a lot though) by the middle of next week. We'll see if the models are right or overdoing the cold in a few more days.

[tron777]

12z EU is brutal for the victims of Helene. That would be awful

No doubt! Hoping it's wrong and the model is overdoing the cold.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro is coming in colder for Sat. A cold rain / wintry slop kind of stuff. Surface temps are too warm for accum though.

Code: Select all

CVG

SAT 12Z 18-JAN   0.9    -1.1    1009      98      99    0.20     547     540    
SAT 18Z 18-JAN   2.5    -1.6    1008      92     100    0.06     546     539    
SUN 00Z 19-JAN   0.8    -5.3    1013      91      68    0.03     545     534  

Then the cold takes over and we are cold and dry thru Day 10. it also blows up a southern winter storm and misses us to the south (not by a lot though) by the middle of next week. We'll see if the models are right or overdoing the cold in a few more days.

Improvement on the Euro and more in line with the gfs and the cmc went towards the previous Euro. Should be fun over the next few days and really their should be a second storm early next week its just the placement is not known at this time. Expect more model back and forth and like Les mentioned it be 48-72 hours in advance before they settle on a solution.

[tron777]

If we are still talking about suppression for next week's storm in a couple more days then so be it. I'll accept it and move on. But for now, I am a believer that the cold is being over done. It has been overdone all season long up to this point. I am talking about all models doing it. Euro probably has been the worst in regards to that. We'll see... I could certainly be 100% wrong. I'm going by what has been happening this season. We also have no NAO Blocking like we did for the last storm. The depth of the cold air can suppress the storm for sure, but if the models are wrong about the depth of the cold, then this thing will come north. It already has somewhat. Whether it comes far enough north for us remains to be seen.

12Z EPS is pretty much like the OP Euro for next week... a Southern US / S Apps special.

[cloudy72]

Seeing some flurries here but that is about it.

[MVWxObserver]

Back to our current clipper... is anyone seeing any flakes flying in our northern counties?

Saw some earlier but they were just the outliers and not the main event.

Thanks Bo! There is a nice band over Eastern IN which should be headed your way here soon. Hopefully Eric and Dave will chime in too being in Greenville and Minster respectively.

Have received a very nice coating here in G'ville and my folks and I used a scraper brush to clear our van's windows in the parking lot of J.T.'s Grill after my bday lunch.

[tron777]

Back to our current clipper... is anyone seeing any flakes flying in our northern counties?

Saw some earlier but they were just the outliers and not the main event.

Thanks Bo! There is a nice band over Eastern IN which should be headed your way here soon. Hopefully Eric and Dave will chime in too being in Greenville and Minster respectively.

Have received a very nice coating here in G'ville and my folks and I used a scraper brush to clear our van's windows in the parking lot of J.T.'s Grill after my bday lunch.

Oh, good! I was hoping you'd get something.

[MVWxObserver]

Thank you very much, Joe, Bo, Mike, Pete, and Bgoney!

Had a wonderful bday lunch at a Greenville eatery called J.T.'s Grill and enjoyed a top sirloin steak, mashed potatoes / gravy, and corn casserole which is like corn pudding along with a Pepsi and water.

Currently 19 here in G'ville just shy 1 degree of today's ILN forecast high.

[MVWxObserver]

Back to our current clipper... is anyone seeing any flakes flying in our northern counties?

Saw some earlier but they were just the outliers and not the main event.

Hi Bo, how do you like Tipp City? My folks and I have a friend from here in our Brethren Ret Community 'hood who has a son and his family who also reside in Tipp City. We get our van serviced at Tipp City Honda.

[Bgoney]

EPS has the cold chasing the moisture for Saturday, possibly ending with snow showers and the follow up southern system more south than the op

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and can we hit the magical zero tonight. Depend how quickly we lose the clouds and how quickly the wind dies down. My guess by about 4am we will be in that 5-10 degree range but what happens between 4a-8a will determine if we get below zero. Wednesday sunny but cold then a nice looking clipper overnight into Thursday though looks like the heaviest part is northeast of here. Friday and fog is a big question and if this happens to occur it will keep temps down during the day but then once the rain arrives after dark temps should be near 40. Rain until about mid-day Saturday before the cold enters the picture. Looks like 2 waves of cold with the first on Saturday and the second on Sunday which is colder. My guess late Saturday we could see the rain changing to snow but not expecting much and then with the true arctic front on Sunday could a minor piece of energy bring us a little snow and sure its possible.

Then does the cold win out and keep most systems south of here next week or do we see the GOM trying to return some moisture early next week.
Interesting set up and will give it a few more days before saying the cold wins out and even if its not the full shot still going to be cold and probably the coldest we see all season.

Looking further ahead some signs of getting a pattern change towards February as the mjo looks to be heading into some of the warmer phases. This also could be a more active period and locally that would be you got it a mixed bag of precip types and will vary with each system.

[BookNerdCarp]

.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Falling and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations up
to one inch and greatly reduced visibilities.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Roads, especially bridges and overpasses, will likely
become slick and hazardous from falling and drifting snow. Plan on
slippery road conditions from the falling and blowing snow, along
with greatly reduced visibilities. The hazardous conditions will
impact the Tuesday evening commute.

[fyrfyter]

.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Falling and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations up
to one inch and greatly reduced visibilities.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Roads, especially bridges and overpasses, will likely
become slick and hazardous from falling and drifting snow. Plan on
slippery road conditions from the falling and blowing snow, along
with greatly reduced visibilities. The hazardous conditions will
impact the Tuesday evening commute.

I want to know what radar they are looking at…

[Bgoney]

I’ve got Virga ongoing overhead as we speak

[weatherbeast45107]

Thank you very much, Joe, Bo, Mike, and Pete!

Had a wonderful bday lunch at a Greenville eatery called J.T.'s Grill and enjoyed a top sirloin steak, mashed potatoes / gravy, and corn casserole which is like corn pudding along with a Pepsi and water.

Currently 19 here in G'ville just shy 1 degree of today's ILN forecast high.

Happy birthday!!!

[tron777]

I have sunny skies LOL! What the heck are they talking about? The snow melted then refroze so IMBY it's not blowing at all. Leaves are skimming over the top of the snow pack so it's like a glacier. Second, where's the snow? Like I said, mostly sunny here and 23 with a dew of 12.

[Bgoney]

They are bound and determined to get the kids another day off tomorrow

[tron777]

Ok, we have a reason now:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
5:00 PM Update --->
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for our entire CWA.
Numerous people reported greatly reduced visibilities while
traveling, along with slick roadways due to falling and blowing
snow. While most of the snowfall has ended for our eastern IN
counties, the gusty winds of 25-35 mph is resulting in snow
drifts that could result in difficult travel conditions. This
Advisory is not going to meet the standard snowfall criteria in
terms of amounts. Rather, it has been issued for road impacts
during the evening commute. Winds should subside enough by 7-8PM
that the drifting snow should be more limited, and the falling
snow will have mostly subsided by then.

[MVWxObserver]

Thank you very much, Joe, Bo, Mike, and Pete!

Had a wonderful bday lunch at a Greenville eatery called J.T.'s Grill and enjoyed a top sirloin steak, mashed potatoes / gravy, and corn casserole which is like corn pudding along with a Pepsi and water.

Currently 19 here in G'ville just shy 1 degree of today's ILN forecast high.

Happy birthday!!!

Thank you very much, Daniel and Bgoney!

[Bgoney]

Add the EU AI to the list along with ensembles for a secondary system early next week affecting areas mainly to our south/SE

[snowbo]

Ok, we have a reason now:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
5:00 PM Update --->
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for our entire CWA.
Numerous people reported greatly reduced visibilities while
traveling, along with slick roadways due to falling and blowing
snow. While most of the snowfall has ended for our eastern IN
counties, the gusty winds of 25-35 mph is resulting in snow
drifts that could result in difficult travel conditions. This
Advisory is not going to meet the standard snowfall criteria in
terms of amounts. Rather, it has been issued for road impacts
during the evening commute. Winds should subside enough by 7-8PM
that the drifting snow should be more limited, and the falling
snow will have mostly subsided by then.

Several rather intense squalls this afternoon with the wind blowing snow on to the north/south roads. It covered the roads with snow but I would not say it created difficult travel conditions. But, that's just my opinion!

[tron777]

Ok, we have a reason now:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
5:00 PM Update --->
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for our entire CWA.
Numerous people reported greatly reduced visibilities while
traveling, along with slick roadways due to falling and blowing
snow. While most of the snowfall has ended for our eastern IN
counties, the gusty winds of 25-35 mph is resulting in snow
drifts that could result in difficult travel conditions. This
Advisory is not going to meet the standard snowfall criteria in
terms of amounts. Rather, it has been issued for road impacts
during the evening commute. Winds should subside enough by 7-8PM
that the drifting snow should be more limited, and the falling
snow will have mostly subsided by then.

Several rather intense squalls this afternoon with the wind blowing snow on to the north/south roads. It covered the roads with snow but I would not say it created difficult travel conditions. But, that's just my opinion!

All good, Bo! I read their post on Facebook and they said in the post's description that it was isolated and some of you may even be seeing some sunshine.

[Ddmeyer004]

I have sunny skies LOL! What the heck are they talking about? The snow melted then refroze so IMBY it's not blowing at all. Leaves are skimming over the top of the snow pack so it's like a glacier. Second, where's the snow? Like I said, mostly sunny here and 23 with a dew of 12.

Les around that same time we got white out conditions in Minster. I was crazy….one moment streets are clear and cloudy, next moment streets are covered and couldn’t see the house across the street….all said we got about a 3/4 dump in 45 mins……now just 9 degrees and windy

[snowbo]

Back to our current clipper... is anyone seeing any flakes flying in our northern counties?

Saw some earlier but they were just the outliers and not the main event.

Hi Bo, how do you like Tipp City? My folks and I have a friend from here in our Brethren Ret Community 'hood who has a son and his family who also reside in Tipp City. We get our van serviced at Tipp City Honda.

Thanks for remembering Eric. We moved on Friday January 10 and the movers left just as the "Refresher" storm was starting. I will say, it's been a rough go and the snow didn't help since I had three driveways to clean. Lots of snow, dirt and grime entered both houses even though the movers were careful. We loved our home and it was SUPER emotional to leave. We left a house on 3 acres with probably 150 trees and TONS of storage to move into a new neighborhood. Trees and gravity don't get along as there's always something falling out of them. At 71, the work was becoming more like work and not fun anymore. In the neighborhood, we have more "eyes" on us as we age should we possibly need help with things. And the storage, OMG, after 25 years in the same house we accumulated a lot of stuff. The new house, while beautiful, doesn't have nearly the storage. We have been donating fools the last 6 weeks. So, we love Tipp and can't wait to get back into our routine but the transition has been difficult at best. Thanks again for asking!