Pack Refresher Storm - Jan 10-11th

[tron777]

0.27" QPF at CVG from the 12Z Euro.

[tron777]

Great Post Les and that upper low is hanging around longer than models showed a few days ago. Still a now cast but as we know storms have a mind of their own sometimes minor things can change a forecast somewhat.

Yeah... no reason to change anything as far as our thoughts and forecasts are concerned. It is interesting though watching this storm come together. A unique set up. Without the cold front coming in from the west, this thing would have been a massive cutter lol I find it so interesting how the timing of the features in our atmosphere have to be perfect or else the storm doesn't fully come together.

[Pete1]

Purely fantasy thinking on my part, but wouldnt it be great if the forecast completely bust like Jan 1996 and we get 12+ inches out of this storm!!

[tpweather]

Purely fantasy thinking on my part, but wouldnt it be great if the forecast completely bust like Jan 1996 and we get 12+ inches out of this storm!!

Pete if we get 12 plus with this storm I will come over and shovel your driveway,sidewalk and maybe the whole street lol

[tron777]

Purely fantasy thinking on my part, but wouldnt it be great if the forecast completely bust like Jan 1996 and we get 12+ inches out of this storm!!

Pete if we get 12 plus with this storm I will come over and shovel your driveway,sidewalk and maybe the whole street lol

Mine too. I'll buy the beer lol

[Pete1]

Purely fantasy thinking on my part, but wouldnt it be great if the forecast completely bust like Jan 1996 and we get 12+ inches out of this storm!!

Pete if we get 12 plus with this storm I will come over and shovel your driveway,sidewalk and maybe the whole street lol

Haha. It is a deal Tim

[tron777]

Got the approval to work from home tomorrow. Sweeet! Now I can enjoy it from here and not have to drive in it. Bring it on!!!

mc-hammer.jpg

[Pete1]

Got the approval to work from home tomorrow. Sweeet! Now I can enjoy it from here and not have to drive in it. Bring it on!!!


mc-hammer.jpg

Hammer time has made his appearance!! It is go time !!

[tpweather]

Once hammer is out there is no going back

[tpweather]

The SREF mean went up maybe 1/4 inch but it beats going the other way

[tpweather]

Just minor items on the SREF and that is probability of precip types. We are fine of course but Nashville is a key city and it went up slightly more in the rain area but still on the low end. Just something to watch over the next few runs to see if that jet is pushing warmer air further north

[tron777]

A little update from BG:


https://x.com/BGoodeWAVE3/status/1877426128425488487

[tpweather]

Many of the snowfall maps are 10-1 and I believe closer to 15-1 with this system. So far looking at the models the Nam seems a touch better with the current situation. Will see if this continues as the storm heads northeast. Still need to see where the low finally decides to set up shop and again this can move around from place to place when the storm is not really strong pressure wise so that is why you can sometimes see a jump to the west sometimes but really just the models trying to find the lowest pressure at any given time

[tpweather]

A little update from BG:


https://x.com/BGoodeWAVE3/status/1877426128425488487

Raised the lower end from this morning and also talked about that area in southern Indiana that could exceed the 5 inch mark, All good signs

[tpweather]

Nam is running and I have not watch the models this much since I first met Les many many years ago on a different forum. That first year with me an models was a train wreck.

[tpweather]

No doubt the last run the Nam moved north with the low in the gulf and that continues on this run so am I going higher with totals anybody?

[tron777]

1012 MB low now off the SE TX Coast. I've been reading some of the NWS AFD's from Ft Worth and Little Rock and it is becoming more apparent to me that this maybe a little stronger of a system. NWS DFW is expected isolated 8-10" amounts Northern Metroplex to the Red River. Little Rock NWS office also mentioned mesoscale banding could add 2-3" more then what they currently have forecast. 6-8" is what they have fore Little Rock / SW of there.

[tron777]

Nam is running and I have not watch the models this much since I first met Les many many years ago on a different forum. That first year with me an models was a train wreck.

Oh come on! It wasn't that bad. We've all come a long way over the years.

[tron777]

No doubt the last run the Nam moved north with the low in the gulf and that continues on this run so am I going higher with totals anybody?

The 18Z run is usually the one we get NAM'ed on so it wouldn't shock me. 18Z HRRR has 4" SW of us and 3" for most of AV Land.

[rhodesman88]

Maybe I am getting NAMed, but the 3km through hour 6 definitely looks heftier!

[tron777]

The warm nose screws over snow lovers over parts of Middle and Eastern TN. Better news for OV snow weenies for sure.

[tron777]

18Z NAM does show the mesoscale banding though. It has 2" for CVG but areas just SW of here and SE get much more. 6"+ for Central KY on south. But see that's the thing. We do not know where those heavier bands will set up. There will be some of you on here that may only get 2-3". Where the better banding occurs, then 4-5" amounts could be realized IMHO. It will be a nowcast on those bands for sure.

[allowat3]

The hounds are ready for Winter Storm 2: Electric Boogaloo. They are sticking with 2-5 for the Northern Ky. area, although they think the 5 will be isolated areas.

[tpweather]

The warm nose screws over snow lovers over parts of Middle and Eastern TN. Better news for OV snow weenies for sure.

Been watching that Les and no doubt the snow band is further west with this run. Still believe 2-4 is an easy call its whether to go higher because the ratios are imo not included many times

[tron777]

The hounds are ready for Winter Storm 2: Electric Boogaloo. They are sticking with 2-5 for the Northern Ky. area, although they think the 5 will be isolated areas.

That range should work Mark. You have trained those hounds well my friend!