Pack Refresher Storm - Jan 10-11th

[tpweather]

Many times in this pattern we get the high pressure after the storm early this week and it really helps keep the systems well to the south with not much movement north. The current high is okay but nothing to write home about and can be bullied enough to allow moisture northward. I thought the high would strengthen more and I missed that part of the forecast.

[Closet Meteorologist]

If someone is traveling to Chicago tomorrow around noon will the snow be less nasty as the go east? They are leaving around noon.

[tpweather]

If someone is traveling to Chicago tomorrow around noon will the snow be less nasty as the go east? They are leaving around noon.

There will be some snow east of Chicago late in the afternoon and evening. Looks like a light snow of maybe 1-2 inches and good thing is roads up there are in really good shape as they have missed on the heavier snows over the last week

[tpweather]

Going to watch today to see if the southern system is stronger with each run. The jet could be stronger and push warmer air further north so places like Tn could go from snow to rain and some heavier snow a little further northward. The Ozarks are going to do well with this system with all the lift so those totals will be much higher than folks away from the mountains. Still plenty of moisture in the western GOM and the eastern GOM sort of keeps getting missed though someday that will come into play for a bigger storm later this month.

[tron777]

QPF from the 12Z NAM at CVG is 0.25" Models have been amazingly consistent with this system in my opinion. 9Z SREF has a 2.4" mean at CVG.

[tron777]

Awaiting BG's video to start which should be at any time.

[tpweather]

QPF from the 12Z NAM at CVG is 0.25" Models have been amazingly consistent with this system in my opinion. 9Z SREF has a 2.4" mean at CVG.

Has been Les. Again I believe ratios are a tad higher than normal which is why I went 2-4 instead of 1-3. Couple of things and we are dealing with two systems trying to phase but they seem to be far enough apart to just kid with each other. Sometimes when you get 2 systems like this somewhere in the middle is a zone that gets left out. Believe there is enough moisture to take care of that but its always something that can happen and will watch to see if any short term models picks up on this.

[tron777]

CB's Call:

CBs Call.jpg

[tron777]

QPF from the 12Z NAM at CVG is 0.25" Models have been amazingly consistent with this system in my opinion. 9Z SREF has a 2.4" mean at CVG.

Has been Les. Again I believe ratios are a tad higher than normal which is why I went 2-4 instead of 1-3. Couple of things and we are dealing with two systems trying to phase but they seem to be far enough apart to just kid with each other. Sometimes when you get 2 systems like this somewhere in the middle is a zone that gets left out. Believe there is enough moisture to take care of that but its always something that can happen and will watch to see if any short term models picks up on this.

SE of I-71 is a possible area where the lighter gap in snow may occur. I think Bgoney was hinting at this earlier as well. But again, it's only a difference of 1-2" of snow so it isn't a huge huge deal like you mentioned.

[tron777]

BG's video is starting now guys...

[tpweather]

Another great video by Brian and I was wondering if he would up the ratio's which I believe is key in getting to the possible 4 inch total. Same page as folks on here and agreeing with Brian never a bad sign.

[tron777]

12Z RGEM has 4-5" for most of our IN counties... 3-4" for the I-71 corridor and 2-3" SE of I-71. 12Z GFS has 3-4" SW of Cincinnati with 2-3" North and East.

[tpweather]

Winter storm watch just issued for the local area

[tron777]

Hot off the presses from the boys...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Expanded the winter weather advisory eastward. In this area
expect 2 to 3 inches of snow. While this falls just below
criteria in some of the northern locations, given the cold
airmass there is the potential for higher impacts and therefore
with values expected to be close to advisory went with the
advisory.

Will continue to evaluate data as to whether to resolve the
watch into an advisory or a warning. The expected amounts are
not expected to change much from what is in the forecast. They
sit right on the border between a warning and an advisory. Most
likely scenario at this time is that most locations will stay
below 4 inches, but cannot rule out isolated 4 inch amounts.

[Bgoney]

Yea that was my thoughts earlier for the areas south and east of 71.

[tpweather]

So far storm is overproducing in the southern plains. Does that mean the same will happen here and maybe but just trends we start to look at as the storm develops.

[tron777]

Yea that was my thoughts earlier for the areas south and east of 71.

Yep and I think you're spot on with this idea. Heaviest could be here or just to the NW.

[BookNerdCarp]

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ070-071-077>079-100115-
/O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0002.250110T1600Z-250111T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KILN.WW.Y.0003.250110T1600Z-250111T1200Z/
Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-
Butler-Warren-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Including the cities of Brookville, Crittenden, Rising Sun, Mount
Orab, Warsaw, Hidden Valley, Burlington, Milford, Williamstown,
Mount Carmel, Mount Repose, Greendale, Newport, Bellevue,
Highland Heights, Florence, Alexandria, Osgood, Maysville,
Springboro, Covington, Falmouth, Fairfield, Franklin, Georgetown,
Lawrenceburg, Mount Olivet, Vevay, Summerside, Oakbrook, Butler,
Augusta, Carrollton, Downtown Cincinnati, Withamsville,
Middletown, Lebanon, Bright, Erlanger, Milan, Dayton, Dry Ridge,
Mulberry, Mason, Versailles, Ripley, Landen, Dillsboro, Oxford,
Aurora, Independence, Day Heights, Brooksville, Fort Thomas,
Owenton, Aberdeen, Batesville, and Hamilton
1213 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 4
inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, and
southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, visit
511in.org or call 1-800-261-7623 for the latest road information. In
Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In
Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.

&&

[tpweather]

Concerning the winter storm watch and my guess the NWS is waiting on the afternoon runs and see how the storm is progressing and then determine if they issue a warning or just go to a winter weather advisory. In this case not much difference as any snow that falls will stick and maybe if they see a down tick in moisture they may go with the advisory. I just believe .20 will give you 3 inches with the upcoming system.

[kywthrluvr]

Looks like ILN went with WWA for the metro:

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ070-071-077>079-100115-
/O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0002.250110T1600Z-250111T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KILN.WW.Y.0003.250110T1600Z-250111T1200Z/
Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-
Butler-Warren-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Including the cities of Brookville, Crittenden, Rising Sun, Mount
Orab, Warsaw, Hidden Valley, Burlington, Milford, Williamstown,
Mount Carmel, Mount Repose, Greendale, Newport, Bellevue,
Highland Heights, Florence, Alexandria, Osgood, Maysville,
Springboro, Covington, Falmouth, Fairfield, Franklin, Georgetown,
Lawrenceburg, Mount Olivet, Vevay, Summerside, Oakbrook, Butler,
Augusta, Carrollton, Downtown Cincinnati, Withamsville,
Middletown, Lebanon, Bright, Erlanger, Milan, Dayton, Dry Ridge,
Mulberry, Mason, Versailles, Ripley, Landen, Dillsboro, Oxford,
Aurora, Independence, Day Heights, Brooksville, Fort Thomas,
Owenton, Aberdeen, Batesville, and Hamilton
1213 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 4
inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, and
southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

[tpweather]

Well there we go and all I needed to do was talk about it and the NWS made a decision lol

[4SeaSonS]

I noticed in my zone forecast, from NWS ILN, that the forecast high for Sunday moved up one degree from 32 to 33. I would like to see that stay below freezing, to keep the below freezing streak intact. I think it will be interesting to see how high temperatures end up being Sunday afternoon, considering there will be a fresh snowpack to our South. I think it's possible, and quite likely, we stay below freezing Sunday, considering that fresh snowpack to our South. If we stay below freezing Sunday, it's more than likely we'll be able to add another 5-7 days to the below freezing streak, if not more. Of note, I'm roughly 2 miles due East of the CVG airport, where the official temperature will be recorded.

Edit: Sorry, it just dawned on me that I should have posted this in the January thread.

[tpweather]

I noticed in my zone forecast, from NWS ILN, that the forecast high for Sunday moved up one degree from 32 to 33. I would like to see that stay below freezing, to keep the below freezing streak intact. I think it will be interesting to see how high temperatures end up being Sunday afternoon, considering there will be a fresh snowpack to our South. I think it's possible, and quite likely, we stay below freezing Sunday, considering that fresh snowpack to our South. If we stay below freezing Sunday, it's more than likely we'll be able to add another 5-7 days to the below freezing streak, if not more. Of note, I'm roughly 2 miles due East of the CVG airport, where the official temperature will be recorded.

Edit: Sorry, it just dawned on me that I should have posted this in the January thread.

I agree Bob and would be nice to keep the streak going. Not the coldest air behind this system but this could also with the new snow pack keep us cloudier longer on Sunday before the sun come out. I am going 28-32 and again a few extra hours of sun can make the difference. Then will wait until late in the week and the following weekend to see if we do warm up some for a few days

[tron777]

So far storm is overproducing in the southern plains. Does that mean the same will happen here and maybe but just trends we start to look at as the storm develops.

This storm maybe more interesting then thought. To get an overachiever, you need a better phase. We all know this. We'll see. But I am looking at the players on the field via SPC mesopage. You can see the 500 MB trough in the southern jet digging all the way down into the Baja / Mexico. Low pressure at the surface is beginning to form off the SE Texas Coast. Moisture continues to stream into TX, OK from the Gulf and then eject NE ward ahead of a cold front (northern jet energy) working its way into MN, Eastern SD, Central Neb, Western KS and SW from there. At what speed are these systems moving and when are they going to interact?

Let's take a look on the W/V Loop and see what's going on.


https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/animwv.html

You can see a large upper low in the upper right hand portion of the image. It's acting like a block to slow the flow down enough to allow these two features to somewhat phase. Can we get a better phase then models indicate? That will be a nowcast. But the timing isn't looking too awfully bad in my eyes when viewing the W/V Loop.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and that upper low is hanging around longer than models showed a few days ago. Still a now cast but as we know storms have a mind of their own sometimes minor things can change a forecast somewhat. Just want to add the jet out of Mexico is looking really nice and much stronger. That is key as well because sometimes these jets get really strong and will push warmer air further north.