Pack Refresher Storm - Jan 10-11th

[MVWxObserver]

Schools being closed this long is reminding me of growing up in the late 70's when we used to have real Winters.

We missed a lot in Jan of 1985 as well as a lot in 1994 when the entire state was shut down for a week.

I remember Jan of 1985 well, too. During that late Jan extreme cold wave my paternal great-grandmother passed away in Anderson, IN and my folks, sister and I went to the funeral. Inside our minds, after it was concluded, we were so thankful that we weren't going to accompany her to a final resting place in Kalamazoo, MI for a burial service. It was the kind of cold that was involuntarily "convulsive."

[kywthrluvr]

Schools being closed this long is reminding me of growing up in the late 70's when we used to have real Winters.

I think it was January of 78 that we went back after Christmas break for like 2 days and then didn’t go back again until February (Boone County).

[allowat3]

I work for Grant County Schools. We had Monday off as a snow day, and NTI so far with us working at home, having office hours for students on Google classroom. I just got dug out today from all the snow and many backroads are just now getting attention. Rural districts do have it bad and with the additional snow coming, we may have more NTI next week!

[tron777]

18Z Euro looking good... 0.29" for CVG QPF wise. I saw the Kuchera map online, gives most folks 4" or so.

[wrmwxfreak]

How far north will this one extend (how much for Centerville area) and what is the time of looking like at this point?

Thanks in advance!

[fyrfyter]

18Z Euro looking good... 0.29" for CVG QPF wise. I saw the Kuchera map online, gives most folks 4" or so.

Here:

IMG_0935.jpeg

[tron777]

How far north will this one extend (how much for Centerville area) and what is the time of looking like at this point?

Thanks in advance!

About the same as most folks. You have the same odds at getting 2-4" as I do in NKY.

[tpweather]

Schools being closed this long is reminding me of growing up in the late 70's when we used to have real Winters.

I think it was January of 78 that we went back after Christmas break for like 2 days and then didn’t go back again until February (Boone County).

Yes we had both January of 77 and 78 where we missed so many days and by 1978 they decided to make up 15 minutes a day starting in April which really meant nothing. I was in the Kenton County School District. Lucky my friends and I built a camp with at fire place in 76 and I spent most of my winter down at the camp with plenty of goodies if you know what that meant at the time.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and finally had a little time to look things over and decided to go from 1-3 and do a 2-4. Reason which is I believe the ratio is higher than 10-1 and probably 12-1 or even 15-1 at times. Sometimes you forget your own equations when making a forecast but caught that mistake earlier this evening and finally had time to post. The snow will be a fluffy type like we had Monday and but it can add up quickly especially with the roads very cold. Then we look to have a couple of clippers next week and then we look to get back to a busier time with some bigger storms. So far this winter several clippers and some bigger storms is what we predicted and so far so good. Last year I would be dancing if it showed a snow of 2-4 inches and this year a little sad lol but I will take it in a heartbeat

[CINCINNATI01]

So far the trend is our friend this looks like a solid snow Friday

[Lenticular]

I was surprised to see a Winter Storm Watch, but probably the right call given the criteria around impacts to travel and property. Some roads are still degraded and more snow could impact roofs/gutters/trees too, so even though the watch says 3-5” I think just 2” could have decent impact.

[tpweather]

I was surprised to see a Winter Storm Watch, but probably the right call given the criteria around impacts to travel and property. Some roads are still degraded and more snow could impact roofs/gutters/trees too, so even though the watch says 3-5” I think just 2” could have decent impact.

That is such a great post!!!

[tron777]

Good morning all! I was also surprised at the watch. Our criteria is 4" so I can see why the boys issued it since this is a high end advisory / low end warning criteria event. 0Z and 6Z models are still in that 0.20 to 0.30" QPF range for most folks. With 12:1 to 15:1 ratios... 2-4"... 3-5" etc. however you wanna handle it looks good to me. I was going with 2-4" myself since yesterday so I will stick with it. The Fri AM commute is fine. The Fri PM commute will be significantly impacted. (Oh joy! LOL)

6Z HRRR is much further north with the low and has 0.30 to 0.40" QPF range which is interesting. 5" here and it's another model that has a heavy band coming right up the river! Wow.... Also seeing a couple models wanting to keep the heaviest to our NW like the CMC and RGEM. Anyway you look at it, most locations should be within a couple of inches of each other in my mind.

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys on this system:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure centered over the area at the beginning of the
period will shift east tonight allowing for winds to become
southerly. High and eventually mid clouds will increase during
the latter part of the night in advance of the next system.

Short wave over the southern Plains early Friday morning will
lift northeast as northern and southern stream troughs phase in
a positive tilt. This will result in snow spreading into the
forecast area, mainly in the afternoon. There are some
uncertainties with how much liquid equivalent precipitation
actually occurs as well as with snow ratios providing some
conflicting signals for how much snow will occur. Overall,
snowfall forecast was bumped up just a bit. This puts
accumulations for much of northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana,
and southwest Ohio between 3.5 and 4 inches. But with the
uncertainties in play and with the snow 30 hours or so out in
time, felt that a winter storm watch was appropriate. Further
north and somewhat to the east, snowfall forecast is solidly in
the advisory range. It is possible that the advisory will need
to be extended into the Scioto Valley, but with snow starting a
bit later and greater uncertainty that in western counties,
opted to hold off there.

Lows will drop to between 5 and 15 degrees this evening with
readings rising during the latter half of the night as clouds
increase. Highs Friday will be in the mid 20s to around 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weakening disturbance will be pushing through the Scioto Valley and
northeast KY Friday evening, exiting the CWA during the overnight.
High pressure will then begin to build into the Ohio Valley Saturday
into Saturday night.

[tron777]

LOU's counties are under a warning for 3-6" of snow.

[tron777]

For IND and our counties under the advisory from ILN: 2-4" is forecast. So like I said, fairly uniform this time across our region which is nice. All snow too and cold temps. Just need to monitor the QPF and how much phasing we actually see. You can see both systems on the US Radar easily that we are watching. Cold front in the N Plains is our next shot of arctic air and the action over Texas is with the S low that will move across the Gulf Coast states.

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and yes I changed move my totals up last night because the ratio imo is higher than 10-1. There will be some dry air to overtake but should not take to long to overcome. Could I see a few folks get higher and maybe especially if those banding areas happen but again exactly the placement is still a little to early to get correct but the trends are there.. Having another storm with temps in the mid 20's is rare but it does make the forecast a tad easier lol. The road crews do a great job but again end of my driveway is an iceberg and I had it looking so nice lol. I will hit that around 1pm or so when the sun is hopefully shining. County schools will probably make it back by next Tuesday or Wednesday but just getting the buses dug out from this past Sunday must be a horrible job plus some of those county roads are still bad as even the suburb roads in many cases just 1 1/2 lanes. January to remember and no doubt that is happening and not even 1/3 of the month is gone

[tpweather]

For IND and our counties under the advisory from ILN: 2-4" is forecast. So like I said, fairly uniform this time across our region which is nice. All snow too and cold temps. Just need to monitor the QPF and how much phasing we actually see. You can see both systems on the US Radar easily that we are watching. Cold front in the N Plains is our next shot of arctic air and the action over Texas is with the S low that will move across the Gulf Coast states.

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current

Nice view and I do believe the southern system has been a tad further north with precip than the forecast a few days ago but the main low will form on the Gulf Coast and that will be interesting as well because 50 miles west or east can change the forecast somewhat but at the moment the models seem fine.

[tpweather]

Les my guess somebody will be showing up today on the forum lol. I am playing Snowblind by Sabbath and Styx plus Stormbringer by Deep Purple out today but heck sunny and 95 I will play these songs.

[Closet Meteorologist]

What time is this all moving in tomorrow. I’ve seen anywhere from 10am-2pm.

[tpweather]

What time is this all moving in tomorrow. I’ve seen anywhere from 10am-2pm.

That seems about the correct timing moving from southwest to northeast during the day. I would play it safe and a 1-2 hour window on the front end just to make sure though it may start out light at first with flurries as the atmosphere moistens up but should continue to increase during the day and maybe the bad news the height of the storm could be in that 4-7pm period or like we call it rush hour

[tpweather]

Earlier this week I really thought below zero was a 100p/c shot. Guess what that forecast was a bust and main reason is the moisture at ground level stuck around and dew points never got that low. Part of that is snow cover with the moisture but not everything and that is why the next system imo will be able to moisten up quicker than normal and why snowfall totals are a little higher than a normal situation.

[tron777]

Les my guess somebody will be showing up today on the forum lol. I am playing Snowblind by Sabbath and Styx plus Stormbringer by Deep Purple out today but heck sunny and 95 I will play these songs.

Might have to Tim after 12z runs lol

[tpweather]

So far so good Les with the NAM. So close to a phase with the two systems but close enough where moisture is brought rather far north. The southern system looks a tad stronger compared to 24 hours ago. I usually look at what the models showed 24 hours ago to get a better ideal of what may be happening in terms of strength and placement. Sometimes minor details become bigger issues.

[Bgoney]

I like the general 2-4 call , bit waiting on the 12z suite to see if adjustments may be necessary. Mostly for areas SE near and south of 71 . May need to go with 1-3 for that region.