Pack Refresher Storm - Jan 10-11th

[Trevor]

Chat away!

[alexdever73]

Awesome thx. Ill take another 4"

[Trevor]

Somewhere in the 2-5” range seems like a reasonable call at this point. We will have a first call map out tomorrow.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Thanks Trev for starting the new thread for our pack refresher system coming in later Fri into early Sat. We'll have to see how the timing goes for the Fri PM commute. I will likely be caught up in that mess. Ugh...

I like a 1-3" to a 2-4" type system right now. Could get a tad more should a bit better phase occur between the two lows.

[tron777]

I renamed the thread to "Pack Refresher"

[Bgoney]

GFS/EU/CMC are all very similar with QPF totals in the .20-.30” range.

IMG_2991.jpeg

[tpweather]

Here we go again!!! Good Morning and looks like another shot of snow and I like the new name Les. This time we are on the northern end and this is an all snow event which should make it easier when forecasting totals. Big storm for the Tn Valley and they have less snow removal equipment than we do locally. Locally here I am going a general 1-3 inches with a few spots that could hit 4 inches. Hard for me to go higher and though expecting a tad higher ratio of maybe 12-1 which is one reason I could see 4 inches in a few spots. Unlike last storm where we had a mainly west to east snowfall this will be more typical and a southwest to northeast swath of snow. The further north and west you live less snow should happen and further south and east more is expected. The what can go wrong with the forecast and the one item I do see is a chance along the GOM a widespread area of thunderstorms that is wider in nature and this sometimes can limit the amount of moisture this far north. Models do have trouble with this and becomes a last minute now cast. The snow should rather fluffy and similar to the last part of the storm on Monday so much easier to shovel.

[Bgoney]

Agree Tim . I don’t think there is a lot of drama/mystery with this event, pretty straightforward, at least atm

[Bgoney]

For those north of I70 and Qpf.

IMG_2992.jpeg

[tron777]

Whatever we do get, it'll be much easier to clean up afterwards versus this last one. I am in agreement too. 1-3"... 2-4".... etc Both look like they should work at this time. 6Z numbers are similar to the QPF map Bgoney posted.

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys.... seems to be in agreement.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Surface high pressure will be shifting off to the east through
Thursday night. With the snow pack still in place and light winds,
temperatures will drop off quickly in areas that remain clear.
However, clouds will be on the increase from the west through the
night ahead of the next system and this will allow for temperatures
to eventually level out or even rise some. For now, will range
lows from near zero in the far east to around 10 in the far west but
this will be dependent on the exact timing of the clouds.

An upper level trough will move out of the Mississippi Valley
and across the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. Some
embedded southern stream energy will lift northeast toward our area
and this will lead to an increasing chance for snow from the
southwest during the day on Friday, with widespread snow expected by
later Friday afternoon into Friday evening. The snow will then
taper off from the west later Friday night. Some accumulating snow
can be expected with amounts generally in the 1 to 3 inch range.
Temperatures will remain below normal with highs on Friday in the
mid to upper 20s.

[tron777]

Another thing we already know about this storm is the snowfall gradient. Lesser amounts will be found in the Western OV with more snow for our SE / Eastern counties. This should be a SE County zone special. That would be your best area to get 4" out of this storm.

[tpweather]

There will be a sharp cutoff of the precip with this system. If the storm is a tad further south this can be in the local area. At the moment this looks to be towards Indy but will watch any trends over the next day or so.

[tron777]

There will be a sharp cutoff of the precip with this system. If the storm is a tad further south this can be in the local area. At the moment this looks to be towards Indy but will watch any trends over the next day or so.

Western and northern areas for sure on this one Tim. I completely agree! Folks like Bgoney and Matt should do well with this next system being further East.

[airwolf76]

all the models have me at around 1" with this one . fast moving moisture starved none phased staying mostly south

[Bgoney]

CMC has sort of lost it’s way for the time being showing higher totals to our NW

[tpweather]

My guess with the CMC it has the first surge coming in from the southwest and then shunts the precip quicker to the southeast. Just a guess at this time

[MVWxObserver]

So for Darke e.g. I'm surmising a half inch to an inch possibly up to an inch and a half for a pack refresher up this way. Better than nothing of course.

My nephew and his wife near Nashville, TN look to get a good hit from this storm.

[dce]

So for Darke e.g. I'm surmising a half inch to an inch possibly up to an inch and a half for a pack refresher up this way. Better than nothing of course.

My nephew and his wife near Nashville, TN look to get a good hit from this storm.

Right now you may be in for a little more. I don't think a couple inches is off the table for you.

[tron777]

I will check the text data from the 6Z Euro and 12Z NAM in the next 45 mins or so when I am not logged in on the customer side lunch break lol).

[Bgoney]

NAM lowest on QPF especially SE region

IMG_2994.jpeg

[Pete1]

Chris Bailey going with bigger numbers as expected he would as he always does…lol

[BookNerdCarp]

One of their new advisory formats -

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
947 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060>063-070>073-077>082-
088-082300-
/O.CON.KILN.CW.Y.0001.250109T0500Z-250109T1400Z/
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-
Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-
Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Xenia, Fairfield, Dry Ridge, Liberty,
Withamsville, Vevay, Alexandria, Middletown, Chillicothe,
Bellevue, Aurora, Vanceburg, Kettering, Georgetown, Seaman, West
College Corner, Newport, Pike Lake, Hillsboro, Mulberry,
Versailles, Mount Carmel, Butler, Springboro, Summerside,
Owenton, Osgood, Wilmington, Aberdeen, Covington, Burlington,
Portsmouth, Winchester, Carrollton, Brooksville, Tollesboro,
Dillsboro, Ripley, Maysville, Camp Dix, Mount Orab, Washington
Court House, Falmouth, Connersville, Franklin, Florence, Downtown
Cincinnati, Manchester, Peebles, Lawrenceburg, Piketon,
Crittenden, Warsaw, Fort Thomas, Rising Sun, Hamilton, Fairborn,
Oxford, Beavercreek, Independence, Erlanger, Wheelersburg,
Camden, Greenfield, West Union, Bright, Dayton, Landen, Milford,
Downtown Dayton, Augusta, Milan, Waverly, Head Of Grassy, Hidden
Valley, Brookville, Mason, Greendale, Williamstown, Oakbrook,
Batesville, Blanchester, Lebanon, Richmond, Day Heights, Eaton,
Highland Heights, Mount Repose, and Mount Olivet
947 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 5 below to 12 below zero
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills as low as 5 to 12 below zero could
result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must
go outside.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

&&

$$

Novak

[tron777]

12Z NAM for CVG was close to 0.20" and the 6Z Euro was a shade over 0.25" for QPF. What I don['t get is why the NAM is putting heavier totals in our NW, when it looks like the further south and eats you go, is where the better totals should be. We have some time still on this one but I just thought it was odd.

[tron777]

BG is in progress...