January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[tpweather]

A foot on the 9Z SREF mean for CVG. Wowza! It has that period of light sleet overnight then back to snow on Monday. Love the idea. My call has been that precip type solution too since yesterday. Virtually all models are showing it now.

Les what a great call. My biggest strength is watching pattern and that part has played out well. You and others on here do so well with models and the shorter term. I believe we have a great team that works together and though sometime thoughts are different that is okay and matter of fact makes it a better forum imo.

[tron777]

The mixing line moved about 50 miles NE in the last 6 hours so it will head this way. If we can keep that rate slow like that, we are going to do very well with this system my friends.

[tpweather]

Nice to see the weather channel sending someone here and they have 12-18 inches for Cincinnati and along the southern Ohio Border with Kentucky

[tron777]

A foot on the 9Z SREF mean for CVG. Wowza! It has that period of light sleet overnight then back to snow on Monday. Love the idea. My call has been that precip type solution too since yesterday. Virtually all models are showing it now.

Les what a great call. My biggest strength is watching pattern and that part has played out well. You and others on here do so well with models and the shorter term. I believe we have a great team that works together and though sometime thoughts are different that is okay and matter of fact makes it a better forum imo.

The pattern from a distance as we discussed in the main monthly threads, screamed a big snow storm and active weather for somebody early on. Everything just happens to be lining up for us for once! It's about time lol We have this one, then we quickly get ready for the end of next week with another shoveler looking very possible. Gonna be a fun next 2-3 weeks on here! Buckle up!!!

[tron777]

Nothing here in Middletown yet.

It'll come! You will get hammered too in time.

[j.r.]

Steady snow now in Hamilton. Light dusting covering the sidewalks and driveways. Let the party begin!

[tron777]

Coming down steadily here. Not too shabby to get things started.

[snowlover]

Light snow has started on the northeast side of town. I think I’m more excited for the snow than the kids are….

[tron777]

Late morning update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ongoing fcst remains largely on track. Incoming SN band is
battling quite a bit of LL dry air, as sampled by the KILN
05.12z RAOB, which showed a very dry profile in the lowest
6-8kft. This dry layer aloft will slowly erode into mid
afternoon, particularly across SE IN, N KY, and far SW OH, but
do think the snow band will struggle to make any real concerted
efforts to move into WC or central OH until early this evening.
The ENE flow is the lowest several thousand feet is going to
work against moisture advection into the column above the lowest
levels, suggesting that WC and central OH may stay mostly dry
through 21z. PoPs were adjusted subtly to reflect this latest
thinking regarding onset of the steadier/accumulating snow.

[tron777]

Light snow has started on the northeast side of town. I think I’m more excited for the snow than the kids are….

You know it, Curtis! We live for these moments and treasure them because they do not come around very often.

[tpweather]

The gfs has the track south of Memphis to south of Corbin,Ky. The last few days I mentioned if we had that track we are in great shape. So it looks like about 20-30 miles south of those two cities but that is even better imo in terms of mixed precip. The higher res models do have the low further north but they are having more trouble with placement and really that is because each hour the low may stronger one place and the next hour further east or west but still keeping it above 1000 for the most part and that is key as well

[tron777]

12Z GFS has a little sleet getting in here but it's got the track I like, KY / TN border on into SE KY and into S WV. Nice Monday back end snows too. Love that up to 4" call there with gusts to 30 mph plus. Gonna be a nice day!

[snowlover]

Light snow has started on the northeast side of town. I think I’m more excited for the snow than the kids are….

You know it, Curtis! We live for these moments and treasure them because they do not come around very often.

Exactly! I’m tired of saying “next winter we’re gonna get a decent storm”. We’re way overdue!!!!!

[tpweather]

Late morning update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ongoing fcst remains largely on track. Incoming SN band is
battling quite a bit of LL dry air, as sampled by the KILN
05.12z RAOB, which showed a very dry profile in the lowest
6-8kft. This dry layer aloft will slowly erode into mid
afternoon, particularly across SE IN, N KY, and far SW OH, but
do think the snow band will struggle to make any real concerted
efforts to move into WC or central OH until early this evening.
The ENE flow is the lowest several thousand feet is going to
work against moisture advection into the column above the lowest
levels, suggesting that WC and central OH may stay mostly dry
through 21z. PoPs were adjusted subtly to reflect this latest
thinking regarding onset of the steadier/accumulating snow.

Nice post and I know all the folks in the Ohio Valley want a big snow but one of my concerns for days has been the dry air and with a shift south overnight this dry air is part of the reason and really its even hurting folks near Dayton for a longer period. I thought Columbus would have some problems for sure but after awhile the snow will take shape but totals may need to be adjusted somewhat for the I-70 area but again they may miss much of the mixing overnight but will the rate of precip be around is the big question.

[tron777]

Snow is here and it extends all the way back into Western Kansas. Wow! She's a beaut, Clark!

Screenshot 2025-01-05 105302.png

[tpweather]

Large storms tend to move slower and no doubt this one is a slow mover. Talking about maybe 30-35 hours where precip is falling. That does not happen often around here unless we get a nice rain storm in the spring. We saw the energy off the west coast as the storm came ashore so getting some lightning and thunder is possible and yes the severe side in the south has increased as well. Energy,energy, energy is always key

[mainevilleweather]

Flurries here now.

[tron777]

Large storms tend to move slower and no doubt this one is a slow mover. Talking about maybe 30-35 hours where precip is falling. That does not happen often around here unless we get a nice rain storm in the spring. We saw the energy off the west coast as the storm came ashore so getting some lightning and thunder is possible and yes the severe side in the south has increased as well. Energy,energy, energy is always key

Yep. I wasn't seeing it (the thunder snow risk) at the time, but I think Alex was mentioning it the other day. I thought at that time, it would be a very low chance. Thinking a moderate chance now that we could see that late this afternoon and evening. We will see 1-2" per hour from SW to NE across the area (Cincy Land) after 12pm or so today, give or take.

[tron777]

MD over KS and Central MO (where the blizz warning is) mentioned gusts to 40 mph and snowfall rates of 2"+ per hour. That is with the upper energy lol Love it!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0006.html

[MJSun]

Light snow has started on the northeast side of town. I think I’m more excited for the snow than the kids are….

You know it, Curtis! We live for these moments and treasure them because they do not come around very often.

Exactly! I’m tired of saying “next winter we’re gonna get a decent storm”. We’re way overdue!!!!!

Agreed!!!!

[jjfight]

Out picking my son up from baseball practice and the roads are deteriorating quickly. North Bend Rd is already covered. Not going to be good out there at all pretty soon.

[MJSun]

The mixing line moved about 50 miles NE in the last 6 hours so it will head this way. If we can keep that rate slow like that, we are going to do very well with this system my friends.

What does that mean- more chance of sleet for Metro?

[wrmwxfreak]

Just started here.

[tron777]

The mixing line moved about 50 miles NE in the last 6 hours so it will head this way. If we can keep that rate slow like that, we are going to do very well with this system my friends.

What does that mean- more chance of sleet for Metro?

No, snow.

[alexdever73]

Large storms tend to move slower and no doubt this one is a slow mover. Talking about maybe 30-35 hours where precip is falling. That does not happen often around here unless we get a nice rain storm in the spring. We saw the energy off the west coast as the storm came ashore so getting some lightning and thunder is possible and yes the severe side in the south has increased as well. Energy,energy, energy is always key

Yep. I wasn't seeing it (the thunder snow risk) at the time, but I think Alex was mentioning it the other day. I thought at that time, it would be a very low chance. Thinking a moderate chance now that we could see that late this afternoon and evening. We will see 1-2" per hour from SW to NE across the area (Cincy Land) after 12pm or so today, give or take.

Lots of dry air winning out right now but I agree 12-2pm should start seeing widespread snowfall. Gonna be some serious snowfall this evening. I think everyone will see good accumulations from this with sweet spot being Butler county and south. N of I70. the cutoff is crazy maybe 2-3" from backside