January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[fyrfyter]

I’m surprised we haven’t seen Trevor on here. Hope all is well with him.

He’s fine - I’ll nudge him to post later on.

[tron777]

I’m surprised we haven’t seen Trevor on here. Hope all is well with him.

He's good! He and Josh (severe) have their own Weather Forecasting / Consulting company, OhioValley Weather LLC. I have been PM'ing with him on FB today.

[fyrfyter]

18z GFS - 9” snow, 1.1” liquid is sleet and freezing rain-

IMG_0930.jpeg

[tron777]

18Z GFS continues the awesomeness... will post text data here in a sec. Wonderful deformation zone on Monday!

[tron777]

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -2.5    -4.5    1023      46      97    0.05     557     539    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.6    -2.5    1017      95      98    0.46     556     543    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.4     0.3    1009      95      98    0.50     550     543    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.2    -3.1    1007      95      61    0.19     541     536    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.2    -9.9    1011      96      95    0.16     536     528    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.5   -11.2    1019      89      54    0.05     540     525 

HAO

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.0    -6.2    1023      45      97    0.02     556     538    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.1    -4.0    1018      95      98    0.29     555     541    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -2.0    1010      95      99    0.41     549     541    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.6    -4.8    1008      95      88    0.23     541     535    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -2.9   -10.1    1011      96      97    0.17     536     528    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.2   -11.7    1019      89      55    0.04     539     525    

MGY

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.6    -6.9    1023      46      97    0.01     555     537    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.3    -4.7    1018      90      97    0.16     554     540    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.6    -2.7    1011      95      96    0.33     549     540    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.0    -5.3    1008      94      97    0.25     541     535    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.0    -9.9    1010      96      97    0.17     536     528    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.7   -11.5    1018      88      57    0.04     538     524    

DAY

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.9    -6.1    1018      77      97    0.09     554     539    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.8    -3.7    1012      94      97    0.23     549     539    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.2    -5.9    1009      93      94    0.24     541     534    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.0   -10.2    1010      96      97    0.12     537     528    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.8   -11.8    1018      88      57    0.02     538     524    

CMH

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.3    -5.6    1020      67      96    0.01     554     538    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.2    -3.9    1013      90      98    0.14     549     539    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -5.1    1009      94      98    0.25     542     535    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -2.8    -8.5    1008      95      96    0.10     536     530    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.6   -11.1    1016      86      65    0.06     536     524    


FGX

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -2.8    -3.7    1023      60      97    0.07     558     540    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.5    -1.7    1017      96      98    0.54     557     544    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -3.5     2.5    1008      96     100    0.76     552     546    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.2    -0.5    1006      96      43    0.08     544     539    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.6    -8.1    1008      96      94    0.06     535     529    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.8   -10.3    1017      90      62    0.07     540     527    

[tron777]

Data showing winds to 40, maybe even 45 mph on Monday in gusts. Don't know if we make Blizz criteria or not but it is borderline.

[tron777]

18Z RGEM is still in the south / weaker camp with the N I-70 cut off and all snow Cincy Metro on north easy.

[tron777]

Ok so here is the first bit of nowdata news that I can give. SPC mesopage has a developing low of 1002 MB over NE New Mexico.

pmsl.gif

Latest pressure falls map would indicate a SE shift into TC Panhandle and near the Red River.

pchg.gif

[mainevilleweather]

How accurate is the RAP? Smoking the area

[tron777]

How accurate is the RAP? Smoking the area

It has a tendency to overdo things sometimes but in the case of this storm, I cannot discount it. But you know never to take any extreme solution without a lot of other data supporting it.

[Trevor]

Who's excited!?! Les -- have the boys come out yet??

Here's our forecast from the Ohio Valley Weather Center LLC, Josh and my weather information and consulting business.

We're on Facebook -- feel free to give us a follow!

www.facebook.com/ovwcllc

Happy to see everyone!

[tron777]

mc-hammer.jpg

[tron777]

Off Topic, but the 18Z GFS has a Gulf low cookin' (cold air supplied by a phased in clipper) for Friday. Seeing more and more model support for this. Euro too. We may have another thread to start guys after this one! EGADS!!

EDIT: Good snow pack refresher 3-5" event.
EDIT #2 watch that next system slipping in behind it on this run. What the hell is going on?

[Trevor]

mc-hammer.jpg

Haha love it man!

[MVWxObserver]

ILN has Greenville e.g. in a brief window of possible sleet mixed in between 1 AM and 3 AM Mon, otherwise mostly snow for the duration of the event.

[Phr0z3n]

Looks like cincy area has a possibility of 1.8 inch per hour snows.

IMG_1251.png

[tron777]

OMG No frigging way!

OMG.jpg

[tron777]

Looks like cincy area has a possibility of 1.8 inch per hour snows.
IMG_1251.png

Agree with 1-2" per hour snow rates Sun afternoon and evening. I also think 1" per hour rates for a few hours on Monday too if the primary holds on into WV.

[Magnum2017]

Hey Guys!

Can you all give me thoughts on ice accumulations for Mount Orab, OH once the new data rolls in? I have 7 horses and I am working really hard to figure out the best set up for them all to ride this out comfortably. What makes this a little difficult is I have to plan for the worst...which would be no power and keeping a consistent water source in front of them that won't freeze. I have a barn for four of them, but I also have a lean to shed and dry lot for the other 3.

I am trying to monitor if I need to put animal safe salt down tomorrow morning in the dry lot....

Ideally, if it stays all snow I will leave everyone out because each pasture has a heated water trough!

SO anyways- there are a lot of layers here to planning for ice vs. snow vs. power vs. no power.....any insight helps me tie up whatever loose ends I need to tomorrow morning.

My greatest fear with keeping them up is when I get them out they are fresh and slip and get hurt on the ice. I am so flat and we got so much rain I will have ice sheets EVERYWHERE.

I would love to know risk of ice accumulation (right now it looks like I am still at risk for 0.10 of ice)
and Sleet and when/if that hits.....so I can either lock everyone up and blanket them all accordingly. I am really thankful for the amount of data that is out there. I have been prepping the farm since Monday for this.

[BookNerdCarp]

OMG No frigging way!


OMG.jpg

Where is that from? LOL

[tron777]

OMG No frigging way!


OMG.jpg

Where is that from? LOL

BAMwx.com

[tron777]

Hey Guys!

Can you all give me thoughts on ice accumulations for Mount Orab, OH once the new data rolls in? I have 7 horses and I am working really hard to figure out the best set up for them all to ride this out comfortably. What makes this a little difficult is I have to plan for the worst...which would be no power and keeping a consistent water source in front of them that won't freeze. I have a barn for four of them, but I also have a lean to shed and dry lot for the other 3.

I am trying to monitor if I need to put animal safe salt down tomorrow morning in the dry lot....

Ideally, if it stays all snow I will leave everyone out because each pasture has a heated water trough!

SO anyways- there are a lot of layers here to planning for ice vs. snow vs. power vs. no power.....any insight helps me tie up whatever loose ends I need to tomorrow morning.

My greatest fear with keeping them up is when I get them out they are fresh and slip and get hurt on the ice. I am so flat and we got so much rain I will have ice sheets EVERYWHERE.

I would love to know risk of ice accumulation (right now it looks like I am still at risk for 0.10 of ice)
and Sleet and when/if that hits.....so I can either lock everyone up and blanket them all accordingly. I am really thankful for the amount of data that is out there. I have been prepping the farm since Monday for this.

I could see up to 1/4" of ice accum out that way. Brown is a big county so the heaviest would be along the River and a little more sleet northern part of the county.

[tron777]

Radar tonight shows the storm now starting to develop with showers moving up from the Gulf into Texas, LA, Sleet, frz rain and snow beginning to slowly gather in the Plains. A lot of it aloft but it will soon be hitting the ground.

[tron777]

Actually I stand corrected. Checking obs now and it is snowing in Nebraska and Kansas. KC reporting frz rain Columbia MO light snow.

[tron777]

Channel 9s call ice.jpg

Channel 9s call 1.jpg