January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[tron777]

CVG gets around 12 hours of sleet before going back to snow Monday morning with the deform band. Sheesh this is going to take some time to clean up!

[tron777]

There's your SE KY low track Tim, deform band looks good on Monday!

[tron777]

So we get a big dumping of snow on Sunday with fat flakes. Talking 1-2" an hour type stuff for some folks. A crap ton of sleet. Then additional more high ratio fluffy type snows in the deform band on Monday. Wow! I am so pumped for this storm!

[snwyowl]

ugh, sleet! Do we even try to shovel?

[tron777]

LOU forecasting 0.50 to 0.75" ice for Central KY like Lexington along with 3-6" of snow. Wow! They have 6-109" of snow and sleet for the N counties that border ours like Madison, IN.

LN has updated and has a lot of us at 5-10" of snow and sleet. A little ice but most South / SE counties for that 0.10 to 0.30" they are expected with the snow / sleet of 5-9" I'd have to go a little lower with the snow for S and SE folks. 3-6" in my honest opinion due to more mixing and esp frz rain.

Worst area for frz rain will be Central KY though. Worst sleet is LOU N counties to Cincy. Worst snow North of Cincy then I-709 on north you start dropping off from the heavier snow amounts. So I think we've got a pretty good outline going here for our forum coverage area.

[tpweather]

Seeing the first blizzard warnings for parts of Kansas and Missouri. That is the winds we keep talking about plus this system has plenty of energy. Concerning today's models and not change my forecast at all. Still have two camps with gfs further north and really wet while the Euro further south and not quite as wet. Just want to hear what other folks believe will happen with today's run since models are not my go to in the weather department

[tron777]

Scotty D going with 6-10" of snow and sleet with a minor glazing of ice. SE counties 4-6" and a moderate glazing 0.05 to 0.15"

[markalot]

This is the NAMster corrected for Rime? I assume this might still include sleet?

[alexdever73]

This is the NAMster corrected for Rime? I assume this might still include sleet?

wow what happen to all the qpf?

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
By Sunday morning, the WAA-induced banded pcpn will be
expanding to our SW, with strong H8 frontogenesis developing across
the mid MS Rvr Vly and SW OH Vly during the morning hours. While
pcpn will expand to the NE into the local area by late morning, LL
sfc flow will initially be quite dry (dewpoints in the single
digits) and with winds out of the NE, the dry air will be somewhat
difficult to rapidly erode on the leading edge through early
afternoon. In fact, it is this dry air in the lowest several
thousand feet which may delay onset of snow further to the N near I-
70 a few hours beyond previous fcst cycles.

For Sunday afternoon through the evening (20z-06z), confidence
is high in a band of WAA/isentropic-lift driven heavy snow
pivoting to the NE into the local area, particularly after 18z.
There is quite a bit of concern, particularly in N KY, EC/SE IN,
and the Tri-State area extending into SW OH and the Miami
Valley, for a period of very heavy snow (hourly rates >=1")
within the 20z-06z time frame. This potential is shown well via
the HREF snowband prob tracker data set. During this time
(especially from 00z through 06z), should be tremendous overlap
of deep-layer moisture and strong lift within the DGZ,
supporting a thumper of a snow band in the SW half of the area
prior to 06z. This will likely create very difficult, if not
impossible, travel conditions for Sunday evening near/S of I-70,
with lighter rates/amounts favored N of I-70 through 06z. It is
within this late afternoon/evening time frame that locales in
the Tri-State into N KY and SC OH will receive the /bulk/ of
their snow for this event, with many locales receiving in excess
of 6" within this ~8hr time frame.

As we progress into the 06z-12z time frame, the thumper of a
snow band should continue to pivot to the NE, aligning closer
to/N of I- 70 and becoming more elongated from W-E, with the
heaviest snow from WC through central OH getting going
near/after midnight. The time period for heaviest snow rates
from WC through central OH is likely to be within the early part
of the 06z-12z time frame Monday before lighter rates evolve
after 08z as the band stretches out from W-E. Further to the SW,
for the Tri-State area and N KY to just S of I-70, there is a
/strong/ signal for an abrupt loss of moisture within the DGZ
near/after 06z, suggesting that we will lose ice nucleation and
the ptype will transition to mainly freezing drizzle and/or
light FZRA/IP by 08z. This is an aside from whether the profile
(H7- H8 layer) actually goes above freezing, which still seems
probable for locales S of the OH Rvr. But... even N of the OH
Rvr from EC/SE IN through SW/SC OH, the loss of moisture in the
DGZ will be the primary factor regarding a decrease in SN
coverage/intensity past 06z, with latest data suggesting that
there may not be much snow (if any at all) beginning around
06z through at least 12z Monday, even in a completely
freezing/subfreezing profile. A prolonged period of freezing
drizzle or light FZRA/IP is probable in these areas between
06z-12z, likely persisting through 15z for locales E of I-75
before better moisture attempts to filter back in from the W
within the deformation axis past 15z. Quite frankly, the
prospect of having light freezing rain/drizzle with sfc air
temps ranging from 20-26F is concerning, with light rates
supporting efficient accretion through a 6-10 hour time frame.
There is the possibility that the near-sfc (i.e. sfc to about
775mb) profile is cold enough/deep enough that IP may end up
being the predominant mixed ptype. This being said, as of right
now, we are expecting the highest ice accumulations to generally
still be S of the OH Rvr, particularly from Carroll to Lewis Co
KY (and points further S) where several tenths of an inch of
ice are possible. This, with a tightening pressure gradient and
increasing winds toward daybreak and beyond, lends itself to a
situation that will become increasingly favorable for some
isolated to scattered tree damage and power outages near/S of
the OH Rvr.

After 12z-15z Monday, as the sfc low pulls E of the region, a
deformation axis of snow should pivot back in from the W into the
local area, particularly after 15z. This should yield some
additional (lighter) snow from mid morning through mid afternoon
before the snow tapers off from W to E past 21z. Snow amounts after
12z Monday should generally range from 1-3" area-wide (highest
amounts favored S of I-70), on top of what fell prior to 12z, which
will likely be 6+" for many spots S of I-70. Regardless of whether
it will be lightly snowing (N of I-70) or lightly FZRA/freezing
drizzle (near/S of I-70) at 12z Monday, the morning commute will be
significantly impacted for the entirety of the region.

The latest data suggests a corridor between I-70 and N KY where snow
amounts on the order of 5-10+ inches is expected. A foot of snow is
not out of the realm of possibilities for a few spots within this
corridor. There is high confidence in a very sharp gradient on the
nrn fringe N of I-70, with snow accumulations likely to vary by
several inches across only a 20-30 mile N-S distance on the nrn
edge. This should set up in the vicinity of an axis from Darke Co OH
to Licking Co OH, where 3-6" is expected (higher amounts favored in
southern parts of respective counties). Further to the N in WC OH,
even lighter amounts of generally 1-3" are favored from Mercer Co OH
to Hardin Co OH.

NE winds will gradually increase Sunday night to 15-20kts, with
gusts close to 25kts, evolving during the day Monday as the low
pressure begins to pull to the E. Should significant ice amounts on
the order of one quarter of an inch or greater accumulate in N KY or
far SC OH , the gustiness during the day Monday will only exacerbate
potential power outage concerns. So this portion of the forecast
will be monitored closely.

[tron777]

This is the NAMster corrected for Rime? I assume this might still include sleet?

wow what happen to all the qpf?

Nothing. that is all snow. It took out the sleet.

[Pete1]

Les, what’s your best guess on a start time tomorrow for the white gold?

I was going with noon for our hoods, thinking a bit earlier now, like around 10am?

Thanks Les

[Bgoney]

Latest Snow map from ILN

IMG_2962.jpeg

[Pepper]

Ok I have to ask what you are thinking for us Snow wise in South East Indiana Franklin County just North of Batesville IN my children are going to be the death of me I got one coming in from Chicago wants and the other is has a ticket to the Colts game I advise don’t do game to the one and to told the other head home early in the morning. Thanks In advance

[Pepper]

According to map above 8-12

[tron777]

Latest Snow map from ILN



IMG_2962.jpeg

Looks very good to me!

[young pup]

Good morning! That's a good range for now JP. GFS is running now and we'll see the Euro in a couple more hours to hopefully allow us to see how much precip will fall for you guys.

No wonder the nws has not included some of us in a WSWarning.

I think they are concerned you may have difficulty making advisory criteria.

I am beginning to get concerned if we even have a salt run up here. lol

Hi JP, we're both in line for 3-6" so that's better than nothing, bro.

Hi Eric, I will take whatever is given. lol

[young pup]

Are the gfs and nam onto something? Or are the Canadian models drinking spiked tea? It's just crazy the difference between those.

[tpweather]

Are the gfs and nam onto something? Or are the Canadian models drinking spiked tea? It's just crazy the difference between those.

JP that is a big question and neither giving in at this moment. I love the fight between these models and will one win out or does it become a forecast that is somewhere in the middle. Will watch the gfs for the next run here in a few minutes to see if it has budged and then probably won't look at a model run until after the Bengals game.

[young pup]

Are the gfs and nam onto something? Or are the Canadian models drinking spiked tea? It's just crazy the difference between those.

JP that is a big question and neither giving in at this moment. I love the fight between these models and will one win out or does it become a forecast that is somewhere in the middle. Will watch the gfs for the next run here in a few minutes to see if it has budged and then probably won't look at a model run until after the Bengals game.

Yep, it's crazy. That's my plan too. Who Dey!!!!!!!

[young pup]

Latest Snow map from ILN



IMG_2962.jpeg

One would think that they would have issused WSWaring for the CMH area with this updated map??

[fyrfyter]

Latest Snow map from ILN



IMG_2962.jpeg

One would think that they would have issused WSWaring for the CMH area with this updated map??

Those maps are computer generated. Clearly, ILN isn’t sure you will make warning criteria, since your criteria is higher than the Southern portion of ILNs CWA.

[Pete1]

I’m surprised we haven’t seen Trevor on here. Hope all is well with him.

[alexdever73]

I don't like these trends SLEET!!!

[tpweather]

Okay time for some football for the next 6 hours or so. Will check in after the games. So far today nothing has changed in my earlier forecast and hope I can say the same later tonight and early on Sunday lol.