January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[tpweather]

Looks great Tim . I mentioned above I like the ILN snow map for now , which doesn’t happen often, lol, and is pretty much in line with your thoughts

Hey Bgoney and I agree with their maps as well lol. We are on the same page and getting agreement among the folks on here is really a good sign that we may be on to something. See what Les has to say later and of course he is the trouble maker so who knows what he will come up with lol

Hey Tp are you close or in Cincy?

I live about 10 miles south of Cincy

[Phr0z3n]

Ah so you and Tron are neighbors pretty much. You’re in a great spot for this storm! Hopefully track stays south so you get more snow.

[tpweather]

Ah so you and Tron are neighbors pretty much. You’re in a great spot for this storm! Hopefully track stays south so you get more snow.

Yes we are just a county away from each other. I thought I heard Les this morning as the Rocky song was being played lol

[Phr0z3n]

Ah so you and Tron are neighbors pretty much. You’re in a great spot for this storm! Hopefully track stays south so you get more snow.

Yes we are just a county away from each other. I thought I heard Les this morning as the Rocky song was being played lol

[Bgoney]

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[Phr0z3n]

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Absolutely frigid!

[airwolf76]

Ah so you and Tron are neighbors pretty much. You’re in a great spot for this storm! Hopefully track stays south so you get more snow.

Yes we are just a county away from each other. I thought I heard Les this morning as the Rocky song was being played lol

Lester is probably out getting his bagel yet

[tron777]

Yo Adrian!!!!

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[Woolyworm]

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Getting ready at the woodpile! Gotta go get some diesel fuel for the heater today. Also, a good day to get the smoker going. Home made bacon will be done for the storm!

[tron777]

6Z Euro...

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.1    -4.5    1024      36     100    0.01     558     539    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.8    -3.0    1019      85      99    0.19     557     542    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -2.3    1012      91      99    0.53     551     541    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.5    -4.7    1009      86      84    0.25     543     536    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.9    -9.3    1012      88     100    0.18     538     528    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.0   -13.6    1020      83      51    0.04     539     524   

HAO

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.8    -3.6    1020      73      97    0.09     556     541    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.3    -3.8    1013      91     100    0.33     550     540    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.8    -5.7    1010      83      89    0.17     543     535    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.4    -9.6    1012      87     100    0.09     538     528    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.9   -13.6    1019      82      47    0.01     538     523    

MGY

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.8    -4.2    1020      67      97    0.05     555     540    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -4.4    1014      89     100    0.26     550     539    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.4    -5.9    1011      82      93    0.14     543     534    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.6    -9.8    1012      89      99    0.04     538     528    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.5   -13.7    1019      83      45    0.01     538     523    

DAY

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.2    -5.3    1020      53      96    0.02     555     539    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.8    -5.4    1015      87      99    0.20     550     538    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.3    -6.6    1012      83      96    0.09     542     533    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.3   -10.5    1012      87      96    0.02     537     528    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.0   -14.0    1019      82      44    0.01     537     523    

CMH

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.9    -6.8    1022      64      99    0.01     554     537    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -6.1    1016      84      99    0.09     551     538    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.8    -6.4    1012      83     100    0.17     543     534    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.2    -9.4    1010      81     100    0.02     537     530    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.6   -13.0    1017      80      36    0.01     536     523    
TUE 06Z 07-JAN  -6.4   -10.0    1022      84      20    0.01     538     521    

FGX

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -2.6    -3.7    1025      46     100    0.01     559     539    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -3.9    -2.0    1019      89     100    0.26     558     544    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -3.9    -0.3    1011      92      92    0.55     554     545    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.0     0.2    1006      89      59    0.09     545     540    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.9    -5.9    1008      87      92    0.05     538     531    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.0   -12.7    1018      80      68    0.11     539     525    

[tron777]

unnamed.gif Getting ready at the woodpile! Gotta go get some diesel fuel for the heater today. Also, a good day to get the smoker going. Home made bacon will be done for the storm!

Awesome! I love bacon! What kind of wood are you using? Hickory, maple, apple, etc?

[tron777]

I looked at the 3Z SREF snowfall probs.

4" - 90% plus
6" - 80%
8" - 60%
12" - 25%

This would be for Cincy, N Cincy burbs on up to S Dayton burbs.

[tron777]

3Z SREF Mean is still 11" for Cincinnati. There was one weenie member up around 37"! LOL I don't recall ever seeing one ensemble member that high ever! Precip type is snow to sleet to snow. I think that's a really good call for CVG Land. I am not expecting freezing rain, that should stay to the Metro's south. Downtown Cincy, probably the same. One you get up to HAO, Mason, Lebanon and points north etc, expecting all snow there. I like ILN's call and Tim's post also. I can't really disagree with anything anyone said overnight and early this morning. I think most of us are on the same page with this one.

[tron777]

I-70 Crew... No changes in my thoughts for you guys. All snow, it's just a matter of how much QPF do you get. Still a little uncertainty there but the heaviest band of snow IMO will be south of I-70. I think HAO, MGY, ILN... that corridor should be jackpot.

[tron777]

15 degrees this morning... got to love getting that ground prepped! The overnight thinking from the boys:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The ridge axis will shift off to the east tonight with some
increase in high and mid level clouds overnight ahead of the
approaching low pressure system.

There are still some timing and placement issues between the
models with the track and strength of the low but the general
consensus is for it to move across the mid Mississippi Valley
and into the far western Tennessee Valley through the day on
Sunday. A developing low level jet ahead this will begin to
nose up into the mid Ohio Valley through Sunday afternoon. Low
level WAA and good convergence along the nose of this will
allow for snow to develop northeastward into mainly southern
portions of our area through Sunday afternoon. With this initial
band of snow, several inches of snow accumulation will be
possible through Sunday afternoon for areas along and south of
the Ohio River. Surface temperatures will remain below freezing
through Sunday afternoon with daytime highs in the mid to upper
20s. However, as we begin to warm up a bit off the surface, some
sleet may begin to mix in with the snow later in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning was done for the majority of
our counties just south of the I-70 corridor. These counties
represent the highest confidence in higher-end winter weather
impacts. Given uncertainty with our northern counties, we still left
a portion of our central and west-central OH counties in a Watch.

Sunday night is when the highest QPF axis moves into the ILN fa. All
of our counties should be observing wintry precip by midnight, with
heavy rates expected across the area. We continue to try and hone in
on the `most likely` track of the surface low to gauge p-types for
our counties.

Right now, it still appears that southern OH / northern KY have the
highest probabilities of getting hit the hardest from winter precip
(thus leading to a Winter Storm Warning upgrade). However, northern
KY and far southern OH may not observe the highest snow totals due
to warm air intruding in the lower levels of the atmosphere above
sub-freezing surface temps - creating favorable thermal profiles for
sleet and even freezing rain. Best chances for freezing rain impacts
will be south of the OH River, with more sleet expected along/north
of the River. There is the potential for freezing rain amounts to
approach 1/4" inch, mainly for our far southern tier of counties
(Owen, KY and areas east).

There will be a sharp cut-off in the mixed precip somewhere between
southern/central OH, where a band of very heavy snowfall will form.
This may result in snow totals exceeding 8" for some in portions of
southeastern IN, southern and/or west-central OH, which would
inevitably create a sharp gradient in snow totals across southern
OH. The QPF footprint starts to decrease near and north of I-70,
keeping snow totals on the lower extreme that far north. However,
locations near/north of the I-70 corridor may still observe snow
amounts in the 3-6" range, which is still a substantial amount that
will create significant travel impacts.

Wintry precip is expected to become lighter in overall intensity by
Monday morning. However, keep in mind that model solutions continue
to develop a deformation band on the backside of this low pressure
system, leading to another round of moderate to heavy snowfall for
some during the afternoon and evening hours Monday. This will
continue to result in travel disruptions through most of the day
Monday into Monday night given the cold ground temperatures. The
snow is expected to begin tapering off Monday night from west to
east.

[cloudy72]

I-70 Crew... No changes in my thoughts for you guys. All snow, it's just a matter of how much QPF do you get. Still a little uncertainty there but the heaviest band of snow IMO will be south of I-70. I think HAO, MGY, ILN... that corridor should be jackpot.

Yes! Sounds good to me!

[Woolyworm]

unnamed.gif Getting ready at the woodpile! Gotta go get some diesel fuel for the heater today. Also, a good day to get the smoker going. Home made bacon will be done for the storm!

Awesome! I love bacon! What kind of wood are you using? Hickory, maple, apple, etc?

Competition Blend!

[tpweather]

Why is this storm different than most and one of the key areas is the set up before. Two cold front have gone through with the second east of the mountains and another reason southeast ridge is not building up. Many times with a decent storm we will see a sunny day like today but temps in the low 40's so the ground can get warmer. Not even above 32 degrees this time and overnight lows in the teens have no doubt help in keeping the surface temps cold and anything that falls will stick.

The last time we were above 32 was yesterday at 7am. Unless we get that sudden push of warmer air late Sunday did ruin the party we may not see CVG hit 32 for quite awhile. Not sure what the record is for number of hours at 32 or below.

[alexdever73]

NAM running lets see what she brings!

[tpweather]

The sref has lowered the mean for snow at CVG to 8.89 and one reason being is the probability of sleet and yes even fr/rain has gone up. Indy is at 10.93 but very little chances of mixing issues. Total precip mean is 1.32. . This seems right in the ballpark of what we have been talking about. Those wild numbers are wild for a reason and will see less and less of them as we get closer to the storm. Also by knocking those crazy numbers out of the equation you are going to knock down the mean so 8.89 with some of the crazies gone seems great

[Phr0z3n]

12z HRRR FWIW. I wouldn’t put much stock into this just trying to look at everything.

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[tpweather]

The HRRR short term model has the low coming to near paducah so a little further north and you do see the mixing at the end of the run but also you see a dry slot. That is why to avoid the dry slot we need this to be east of Bowling Green,Ky to avoid chances of the dry slot working into the area. Storm strength is decent but nothing to strong at 999. Would like to see like Les mentioned a 1000-1004 come across extreme southern Kentucky.

[dce]

The HRRR has a pretty strong low pretty far north. Hour 48.

[Trentonwx06]

12z HRRR FWIW. I wouldn’t put much stock into this just trying to look at everything.
IMG_1250.png

Wish it went 4 more frames to see what backside deform band does. Overall not a bad run, freezing drizzle in the lull.

[tpweather]

Doug that is the Paducah to Lexington path and no doubt we want this to be a more Memphis to Corbin deal. See what the Nam is cooking up this morning