January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[tron777]

RGEM looking like a CVG Special on this run thus far!

[Phr0z3n]

Nam is tilting neg earlier than the euro also. That’s going to have to be watched.

[tron777]

Ok guys... been up since 3:30 this morning. Keep up the great work and I expect to read a few pages with my coffee in the morning as we continue to review the data together! This is so exciting!!!

[wrmwxfreak]

What is the Middletown/Centerville area looking like at this point? If it goes south, will that impact us as well, or just the Columbus folks? I have COVID right now, and I’m really hoping I won’t have to go back to work (I teach) until Tuesday, so I can have an extra day to recover without having to take time off. Thanks in advance!

Thanks!

Prayers that you'll feel much better soon, Casie.

My folks and I had Covid at Christmas 2021 and Christmas 2023.

Currently 21 here in G'ville and progged for around 14 Sat morning.

Thank you. Right now, I feel terrible. Can’t get much worse. I’m a kidney transplant recipient, so I’m immunosuppressed, and I get hit hard with these things. Doc called in Paxlovid, so hoping I feel better soon.

Here’s hoping for enough snow to call off Monday (and maybe even Tuesday!)..

I’m hoping the Paxlovid has you good in about two days, minus the persistent bitter taste it causes- somewhere between a metal spoon and a rubber band.

Thank you, and I’m familiar with Paxlovid as it’s not my first time. Hate that drug.

[MJSun]

1"+ QPF as sleet for CVG! Lovely! Another Sleet fest on this run!

Noooooooooooooooo!!!

It's funny in FB where the storm is being posted - Columbus people are annoyed the snow looked to be hitting south "we always get missed!"

All the SW Ohio people are saying "What??? You get it all the time, let us have this one for once!!"

[fyrfyter]

I’m hoping the Paxlovid has you good in about two days, minus the persistent bitter taste it causes- somewhere between a metal spoon and a rubber band.

Thank you, and I’m familiar with Paxlovid as it’s not my first time. Hate that drug.

I don’t enjoy the aftertaste, but the benefits outweigh the cons. First bout of COVID took 35 days from being positive to returning to work.

[airwolf76]

nice to see a big storm still in the cards for you guys. this has been fun reading

[MJSun]

I’m hoping the Paxlovid has you good in about two days, minus the persistent bitter taste it causes- somewhere between a metal spoon and a rubber band.

Thank you, and I’m familiar with Paxlovid as it’s not my first time. Hate that drug.

I don’t enjoy the aftertaste, but the benefits outweigh the cons. First bout of COVID took 35 days from being positive to returning to work.

Oh gosh fyrfyter!

Casie- hang in there!

[Pete1]

Massive

[fyrfyter]

0z GFS has some wobble, but a tick further South. Sleet does get into row of counties N of the river.

Less dry slot, wraparound snows persist until ~7:00 pm Monday. 0.10” of ice. With sleet pulled out, still 7.5” snow for Cincinnati.

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[alexdever73]

hope GFS and NAM pans out

[dce]

The GFS continues to hold it's ground. It has not wobbled much at all. If anything, the Euro and CMC have ticked back north a little. The short range models seem to be siding with the GFS much more so than the foreign models. Butler, Warren, and Clinton counties and anyone on an east/west line from there look to be in the jackpot zone as of now. Sitting on I-70 I'm either going to see one of the biggest storms this area has ever seen with double digit totals or it's going to be a 3-5 inch sort of deal. 15 or 20 miles could literally make all the difference across AV land in huge totals compared to a light to moderate event. This storm is going to be epic for many in the AV forum area.

[dce]

The 03z SREF ticked down a little across the area in general compared to the previous run, but it's still putting out epic snow for the region.

[dce]

The Euro has made quite the jump back north over the last 12 hours to come more in line with the NAM and GFS.

[dce]

For what it's worth, the latest RAP is in the northern camp as well.

[Pete1]

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 9 inches and ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, and south central and southwest Ohio. * WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to midnight EST Monday Night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Indiana, visit 511in.org or call 1-800-261-7623 for the latest road information. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.

[Bgoney]

ILNs snow map totals , I like it for now . Can be adjusted north /south/less/more /sideways , after the all important 12z suite of models is finished and the HRRR gets more into its range

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[Phr0z3n]

Good Morning Everyone! Still looking good for your area. 12z will be model adjustment time. It looks like all models are starting to come to a solution.

[Phr0z3n]

System seems to be coming out a little weaker/faster radar/model comparison

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[Bgoney]

EU/Cmc still camping together with less qpf (especially CMC) totals for the region while still bringing mixing issues into cvgland .

[tpweather]

Good Morning and looks like we are headed for one of the best storms in the past several years. A few items and one being under a Winter Storm Warning for 38 hours is one you don't see around here often. Snow totals and this is tricky as they are around here during a moderate to strong storm.

My thought process has not changed about the storm but just needed to refine snow,sleet and ice totals. Snow moves in late Sunday morning from southwest to northeast. This first so called round of snow should continue until evening. Still will have the northeast wind which keeps the cold in but can also eat at precip northeast towards Columbus,Oh. A good 2-4 inches should fall during this period with the heaviest near CVG and lighter towards Columbus of probably 2 inches. Dayton should be 3-4 inches imo.

Then the period say from 6pm Sunday until say 3am Monday morning. This is the height of the storm in terms of precip rates. How far north does the warm air go and at what layer of the atmosphere. This can be tricky and even a few hours before models can have problems and it makes sense when a storm is strengthening. This time period we can see liquid amounts probably in the .5-1.0 with heaviest of those amounts south. This part of the storm is where precip types will come into play and the further south the more likely a switch to sleet and depending on the temps up above this could lead to a period of frz/rn and though this could come down heavy if temps at the surface stay in the upper 20's this is not a good situation but if they get into the lower 30's then frz/rain could runoff but again by then we have a decent snow pack which helps keep the cold at the surface levels.

Period from 3am to 6pm will be the final part of the system. How quickly does the system move away and do we have another round of moderate snow. Yes I believe another round is in the cards and I can see another 2-4 inches of snow before tapering off. Also the winds will pick up late Sunday into the day on Monday so this could cause some power outages.

Here is what I am expecting totals for some of the big cities in the Ohio Valley.

Columbus- total snow 4-8 inches with some sleet mix in late Sunday until early Monday am.

Dayton- total snow 6-10 inches and especially south of the city some sleet could mix in but shorter duration

Cincinnati- total snow 6-10 inches but should see sleet later Sunday into early Monday am and also even a small period of frz/rain is possible.

Indy- total snow 5-9 inches as it remains mostly snow but north of Indy totals will start to dwindle

Lexington- total snow 2-4 inches though sleet will enter later Sunday and probably a good period of frz/rain and really it good be plain rain at times

Louisville- total snow 3-5 inches though sleet will once again become a big issue there and yes some frz/rain as well

This is just a general ideal and again as we know storms have a mind of their own and we will need to nowcast once we see how the atmosphere is shaping up on Sunday.

Can somebody get a foot of snow and that is possible and probably somewhere between CVG and DAY is the most likely area at this point but again will watch the profiles during the day.

Then we get cold on zero for both Wednesday and Thursday morning seem very possible and if we get that clear sky and no wind temps especially in outlying areas can get in the -10-15 range.

Hope I see more forecasts on here as the more folks who forecast we can get an ideal of what folks are expecting and yes this helps because I may be missing an important part of the storm and will need to adjust.

The track of the storm is so important and does it stay on a line from Memphis-Corbin which is what I see happening. If this storm moves further north at the start and heads towards Paducah before heading east then a warmer atmosphere could bring down snow totals. If the storm take a Memphis-Knoxville route then snow totals go down but mixing is less around here and snow totals go up in Kentucky

Thanks for reading if anybody made it through the whole post you should get some kind of reward

[Bgoney]

Looks great Tim . I mentioned above I like the ILN snow map for now , which doesn’t happen often, lol, and is pretty much in line with your thoughts

[tpweather]

Looks great Tim . I mentioned above I like the ILN snow map for now , which doesn’t happen often, lol, and is pretty much in line with your thoughts

Hey Bgoney and I agree with their maps as well lol. We are on the same page and getting agreement among the folks on here is really a good sign that we may be on to something. See what Les has to say later and of course he is the trouble maker so who knows what he will come up with lol

[Bgoney]

Looks great Tim . I mentioned above I like the ILN snow map for now , which doesn’t happen often, lol, and is pretty much in line with your thoughts

Hey Bgoney and I agree with their maps as well lol. We are on the same page and getting agreement among the folks on here is really a good sign that we may be on to something. See what Les has to say later and of course he is the trouble maker so who knows what he will come up with lol

Les is probably on his way back from his morning “Rocky” like jog (insert music) with a crowd of people following getting pumped up to forecast the crap out of this storm.

[Phr0z3n]

Looks great Tim . I mentioned above I like the ILN snow map for now , which doesn’t happen often, lol, and is pretty much in line with your thoughts

Hey Bgoney and I agree with their maps as well lol. We are on the same page and getting agreement among the folks on here is really a good sign that we may be on to something. See what Les has to say later and of course he is the trouble maker so who knows what he will come up with lol

Hey Tp are you close or in Cincy?