January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[tpweather]

WOW with a capital WOW the newest sref has a mean of 12.59

[tron777]

The sref will be interesting as the last one we had some totals nearing 18 inches and yes a handful in the 13-16 range. I believe some of that is sleet related but if somehow we can stay snow for the duration a foot of snow possible and not many storms of double digits around these parts.

Googly Moogly! The mean is up to 11" LOL at CVG.

EDIT: 11.32"

SREF CVG.png

Precip Type shows snow, a period of sleet, then more snow. I'll take it!

PType.png

[tron777]

mc-hammer.jpg

[tpweather]

Les saw one of over 22 inches. Indy's total is down just a tad. Showing chances of mostly snow around here with minor chances of sleet. Still believe some of this may be sleet but at least it keeps us busy.

[tron777]

Les saw one of over 22 inches. Indy's total is down just a tad. Showing chances of mostly snow around here with minor chances of sleet. Still believe some of this may be sleet but at least it keeps us busy.

Do ya feel a NAM'ing coming on? Let's reel in a foot!

[tpweather]

mc-hammer.jpg

Les I thought he was going to be late to the party but lucky he finally made it here. Not sure how I would look in that outfit but looks comfortable

[MattyD]

Qpf?

[tron777]

mc-hammer.jpg

Les I thought he was going to be late to the party but lucky he finally made it here. Not sure how I would look in that outfit but looks comfortable

I think now is the right time! My brother had a pair of parachute pants in the 80s! Who didn't? It was the 70s version of the belle-bottoms in popularity!

[tpweather]

Les saw one of over 22 inches. Indy's total is down just a tad. Showing chances of mostly snow around here with minor chances of sleet. Still believe some of this may be sleet but at least it keeps us busy.

Do ya feel a NAM'ing coming on? Let's reel in a foot!

We got the foot with the 12.52 mean of the sref so lets try one more. If the Euro has this overnight then we are talking business even though I believe we are just fine. The duration of the storm is key and very seldom do we see one that can last 24 hours around here. Usually we will have a storm to the west and we get a big dry slot or a coastal storm takes away our moisture. This is a unique storm

[tron777]

Qpf?

Yes Sir...


2.03" on the mean at CVG, incredible!!!

[tpweather]

mc-hammer.jpg

Les I thought he was going to be late to the party but lucky he finally made it here. Not sure how I would look in that outfit but looks comfortable

I think now is the right time! My brother had a pair of parachute pants in the 80s! Who didn't? It was the 70s version of the belle-bottoms in popularity!

That is funny to mentioned belle-bottoms lol. At one time in my late teens and early 20's I wore a size 26 in jeans.

[tpweather]

The mean precip total is 1.72

[tron777]

Les saw one of over 22 inches. Indy's total is down just a tad. Showing chances of mostly snow around here with minor chances of sleet. Still believe some of this may be sleet but at least it keeps us busy.

Do ya feel a NAM'ing coming on? Let's reel in a foot!

We got the foot with the 12.52 mean of the sref so lets try one more. If the Euro has this overnight then we are talking business even though I believe we are just fine. The duration of the storm is key and very seldom do we see one that can last 24 hours around here. Usually we will have a storm to the west and we get a big dry slot or a coastal storm takes away our moisture. This is a unique storm

Great post Tim! To be realistic... we need the thermals to stay cold enough and have the deform band work out via a slower transfer on Monday. If you can get a 1000-1004 MB low into SE KY or NE TN then hang on into WV, we will get buried!

[tron777]

mc-hammer.jpg

Les I thought he was going to be late to the party but lucky he finally made it here. Not sure how I would look in that outfit but looks comfortable

I think now is the right time! My brother had a pair of parachute pants in the 80s! Who didn't? It was the 70s version of the belle-bottoms in popularity!

That is funny to mentioned belle-bottoms lol. At one time in my late teens and early 20's I wore a size 26 in jeans.

I had a jean size of 29 slim in high school!

[MattyD]

I gotta think with that much qpf ….. this is a 12-14 inch storm

[tron777]

So far... 0Z HRRR is a tick south of 18Z at 31 hours.

[tron777]

I gotta think with that much qpf ….. this is a 12-14 inch storm

If you don't mix with sleet. That's the kicker! We have to watch the mid level temps like 925 MB and 850 MB. Check out some Soundings as the storm is going on to keep track of it. SPC Meso page is a wonderful resource to follow this on Sunday and Monday.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanal ... ?sector=19#

I use it daily. Wonderful for severe wx also.

[tpweather]

Les saw one of over 22 inches. Indy's total is down just a tad. Showing chances of mostly snow around here with minor chances of sleet. Still believe some of this may be sleet but at least it keeps us busy.

Do ya feel a NAM'ing coming on? Let's reel in a foot!

We got the foot with the 12.52 mean of the sref so lets try one more. If the Euro has this overnight then we are talking business even though I believe we are just fine. The duration of the storm is key and very seldom do we see one that can last 24 hours around here. Usually we will have a storm to the west and we get a big dry slot or a coastal storm takes away our moisture. This is a unique storm

Great post Tim! To be realistic... we need the thermals to stay cold enough and have the deform band work out via a slower transfer on Monday. If you can get a 1000-1004 MB low into SE KY or NE TN then hang on into WV, we will get buried!

Les you are correct and if we get the slow movement and have that storm head up towards Corbin this is a wonderful path. We also talk about the northeast wind and this can help in keeping the warm layer at bay some and it can help in certain situations an hurt in others.

[snowbo]

mc-hammer.jpg

The tradition lives on!!!

[tpweather]

My guess with the morning forecast from the NWS they will update to a Winter Storm Warning.

[Pete1]

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It’s official now!! Let the snow games begin now!!

[tron777]

Les saw one of over 22 inches. Indy's total is down just a tad. Showing chances of mostly snow around here with minor chances of sleet. Still believe some of this may be sleet but at least it keeps us busy.

Do ya feel a NAM'ing coming on? Let's reel in a foot!

We got the foot with the 12.52 mean of the sref so lets try one more. If the Euro has this overnight then we are talking business even though I believe we are just fine. The duration of the storm is key and very seldom do we see one that can last 24 hours around here. Usually we will have a storm to the west and we get a big dry slot or a coastal storm takes away our moisture. This is a unique storm

Great post Tim! To be realistic... we need the thermals to stay cold enough and have the deform band work out via a slower transfer on Monday. If you can get a 1000-1004 MB low into SE KY or NE TN then hang on into WV, we will get buried!

Les you are correct and if we get the slow movement and have that storm head up towards Corbin this is a wonderful path. We also talk about the northeast wind and this can help in keeping the warm layer at bay some and it can help in certain situations an hurt in others.

The NE wind will lock in the cold at the surface for sure. The flow aloft is southerly so much warmer above our heads. This will be a wonderful overrunning event to watch on radar beginning tomorrow as you see it begin to unfold and Gulf moisture start to feed into this thing.

[tron777]

Thanks all! The Hammer only comes out on big dog storms and folks, we've got one coming for a good chunk of our area.

Tim... I agree on the warning issuance in the morning too. Let's lock this in with the 0Z package and tweak it with the 12Z tomorrow.

[dce]

So far... 0Z HRRR is a tick south of 18Z at 31 hours.

997 low in the boothill of Missouri! That's the kind of strength we need for a slower transfer.

[MJSun]

What is the Middletown/Centerville area looking like at this point? If it goes south, will that impact us as well, or just the Columbus folks? I have COVID right now, and I’m really hoping I won’t have to go back to work (I teach) until Tuesday, so I can have an extra day to recover without having to take time off. Thanks in advance!

Thanks!

Prayers that you'll feel much better soon, Casie.

My folks and I had Covid at Christmas 2021 and Christmas 2023.

Currently 21 here in G'ville and progged for around 14 Sat morning.

Thank you. Right now, I feel terrible. Can’t get much worse. I’m a kidney transplant recipient, so I’m immunosuppressed, and I get hit hard with these things. Doc called in Paxlovid, so hoping I feel better soon.

Here’s hoping for enough snow to call off Monday (and maybe even Tuesday!)..

I'm so sorry to hear that- I hope you feel better soon.