January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[alexdever73]

Well looks like models are shifting south with snowshield. Not a good sign for people N of I70

[tron777]

Well looks like models are shifting south with snowshield. Not a good sign for people N of I70

Welcome to the board! Yeah..... unfortunately I would have to agree. Looking more like an advisory event for the north.

[tron777]

Actually south with the snow shield when compared to 0z euro
IMG_1237.png

Do you have a QPF map by chance? Thanks!

[Bgoney]

Definitely takes mixing out of the picture for north of river but also qpf amounts

[fyrfyter]

The Euro kills the wraparound snow on Monday day. It’s over at 7am.

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[Phr0z3n]

Actually south with the snow shield when compared to 0z euro
IMG_1237.png

Do you have a QPF map by chance? Thanks!

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[Phr0z3n]

The Euro kills the wraparound snow on Monday day. It’s over at 7am.


IMG_0912.jpeg

Very interesting run. I wasn’t expecting south of the euro 0z solution

[Bgoney]

It’s outcome that has just as good (bad) a chance happening as the others do

[tron777]

Looking at the above QPF map, holy cow at that gradient! If that is right, 4" here in Mason and I get 8"+ at home lol That is a distance of only 35 miles. That is crazy to see! With regards to what you said Aaron, hopefully that idea is wrong with regards to Monday. This is the first model run to kill the upper low and weaken the system too early. My guess is that it is much quicker with the transfer to the coastal low. With this run of the Euro, had the upper low stayed intact, we'd be looking at 10"+ for NKY as an example.

[alexdever73]

OUCH! Well at least we go to talk about for a day or so lol

[Closet Meteorologist]

Someone just assure me this thing isn’t gonna go so far south that we end up with flurries. I’ve seen this movie before.

[tron777]

What we now need to see is one bump back North lol At any rate, as long as the southward shifts stop I am good with it. Keep that ice away that is for sure. I would rather sacrifice QPF to be quite honest.

[fyrfyter]

With that run, we’d make warning criteria, Dayton would make advisory, and Columbus wouldn’t make anything.

A little reminder, in case anyone doesn’t remember the ILN split criteria… https://www.weather.gov/iln/criteria-winter

[Bgoney]

Looking at the above QPF map, holy cow at that gradient! If that is right, 4" here in Mason and I get 8"+ at home lol That is a distance of only 35 miles. That is crazy to see! With regards to what you said Aaron, hopefully that idea is wrong with regards to Monday. This is the first model run to kill the upper low and weaken the system too early. My guess is that it is much quicker with the transfer to the coastal low. With this run of the Euro, had the upper low stayed intact, we'd be looking at 10"+ for NKY as an example.

Another 10 mile shift south with that gradient your down to 1” and maybe 3” respectively

[mainevilleweather]

Brutal runs for us north of the city... I hope they are wrong haha.

[Phr0z3n]

Looking at the above QPF map, holy cow at that gradient! If that is right, 4" here in Mason and I get 8"+ at home lol That is a distance of only 35 miles. That is crazy to see! With regards to what you said Aaron, hopefully that idea is wrong with regards to Monday. This is the first model run to kill the upper low and weaken the system too early. My guess is that it is much quicker with the transfer to the coastal low. With this run of the Euro, had the upper low stayed intact, we'd be looking at 10"+ for NKY as an example.

Another 10 mile shift south with that gradient your down to 1” and maybe 3” respectively

Looks like the high pressure building in the plains was more aggressive pushing the low out.

[tron777]

Looking at the above QPF map, holy cow at that gradient! If that is right, 4" here in Mason and I get 8"+ at home lol That is a distance of only 35 miles. That is crazy to see! With regards to what you said Aaron, hopefully that idea is wrong with regards to Monday. This is the first model run to kill the upper low and weaken the system too early. My guess is that it is much quicker with the transfer to the coastal low. With this run of the Euro, had the upper low stayed intact, we'd be looking at 10"+ for NKY as an example.

Another 10 mile shift south with that gradient your down to 1” and maybe 3” respectively

Looks like the high pressure building in the plains was more aggressive pushing the low out.

More confluence too. A little too much of a good thing. I find it pretty amazing too that it's so strong with the lack of snow pack to our NW.

[tpweather]

Looking at the above QPF map, holy cow at that gradient! If that is right, 4" here in Mason and I get 8"+ at home lol That is a distance of only 35 miles. That is crazy to see! With regards to what you said Aaron, hopefully that idea is wrong with regards to Monday. This is the first model run to kill the upper low and weaken the system too early. My guess is that it is much quicker with the transfer to the coastal low. With this run of the Euro, had the upper low stayed intact, we'd be looking at 10"+ for NKY as an example.

Another 10 mile shift south with that gradient your down to 1” and maybe 3” respectively

Looks like the high pressure building in the plains was more aggressive pushing the low out.

That is what I was looking at this morning. Not the transfer of energy which I still believe its just a system moving across the mountains and no coastal low that forms. Only one run and if we continue to see this southward push on the other models then yes something is causing that to happen but going to wait on any changes. Still almost 48 hours until the storm starts locally

[mainevilleweather]

I didn't like seeing the CMC go south. Has been holding steady until the Euro started south. I'm sure the GFS is wrong, but what do I know?

[tpweather]

What I have seen from other models is the high gets rather strong but then weakens later on Saturday. Have not seen the Euro but my guess is that model keeps the high stronger and maybe further southeast. Will watch trends later and that is my only thoughts with why it would track faster. I thought the CMC stayed the same or am I mistaken

[tron777]

I didn't like seeing the CMC go south. Has been holding steady until the Euro started south. I'm sure the GFS is wrong, but what do I know?

If you take a model blend, we are still looking pretty good IMO. UKMET is too far south and the GFS is too far north. I think the Canadian models (CMC and RGEM) are in the middle which is good. The area of concern right now for getting the shaft in my mind is our I-70 Crew. This is just my opinion. I could be wrong as well.

[Bgoney]

Pretty tight ensemble cluster . Still some north possibilities though on there

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[mainevilleweather]

If the GFS caves south I think the writing is on the wall. Aren't the models being sampled with these previous runs?

[airwolf76]

remember the trend is your friend

[Bgoney]

Hard data sampling will be partial on tonight 0z run and fully on tomorrow 12z