January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[Bgoney]

Gfs really giving the love in the snow department to the counties bordering I70

[tron777]

Wow, this is really getting serious in terms of an ice storm for the Tri-state area.

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -5.0    -3.0    1023      92      97    0.27     559     541    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.7    -1.0    1017      96      97    0.61     557     544    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -2.8     1.9    1008      96      63    0.60     552     545    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -3.0     2.2    1002      96      99    0.07     542     541    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.3    -6.6    1005      97      82    0.12     534     531    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.0    -9.1    1014      90      89    0.09     541     530    

HAO

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.6    -3.6    1023      78      96    0.16     558     540    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -2.8    1018      96      97    0.57     557     542    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -3.8     0.2    1009      95      90    0.60     551     544    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -3.8     0.8    1004      94      96    0.11     542     540    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.1    -7.1    1005      97      91    0.21     535     531    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.5    -9.2    1014      88      93    0.13     540     530 

MGY

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -3.6    1018      95      97    0.44     556     542    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.7    -0.7    1010      95     100    0.60     551     544    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.5     0.2    1004      94      96    0.12     543     539    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.2    -7.2    1005      97      95    0.26     536     532    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.9    -9.3    1013      89      92    0.18     540     529    

DAY

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.1    -5.9    1023      54      97    0.03     557     538    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -3.8    1019      93      96    0.22     556     541    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.1    -1.7    1011      95      99    0.57     551     543    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.1    -1.5    1005      94      97    0.15     543     539    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.0    -7.2    1005      96      96    0.29     536     532    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.4    -9.5    1013      89      88    0.19     539     529    

CMH

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.4    -6.0    1021      83      97    0.04     555     539    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -3.2    1013      96      98    0.44     552     542    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.9    -2.1    1006      95      99    0.21     544     539    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.0    -5.1    1003      97      97    0.24     537     534    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.5    -8.8    1010      88      97    0.32     538     530    

FGX

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.7    -2.5    1023      94      98    0.25     560     542    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.4    -0.6    1017      95      95    0.40     559     545    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -1.1     4.0    1008      97      98    0.64     554     548    
MON 12Z 06-JAN   0.3     4.2    1001     100      60    0.21     545     544    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -0.6    -5.7    1002      99      62    0.05     535     534  

[tron777]

Big AFD from the boys:

The main item of interest for the long term period is going to
be the evolution of the system poised to impact the region
Sunday into Monday. At these time ranges, we can only speak
reliably to trends within the ensemble data/solutions and will
refrain at this point from any mention of specific amounts of
snow and/or ice for particulary locations.

Synoptically, by Saturday night, the expansive ern trof should
be pulling away from the OH Vly, with midlevel ridging building
E in its immediate wake. This midlevel ridge will nudge E into
the region by late Saturday night, but will gradually flatten as
the ejecting S/W into the central plains will move E quicker
than the departing ern trof will pull away. Although the
approaching trof will be positively-tilted, it will be subtly
deepening/strengthening into early Sunday, spreading large-scale
ascent (and moisture) eastward into the mid MS/OH Vlys during
the day. The latest guidance shows a slightly stronger solution
overall, with a closed midlevel low developing within the
central plains by Sunday morning. This is a deviation from the
prevailing mean ensemble guidance within the past several days
and indeed this is also reflected within the depicted average
sfc low depth as well. Ensemble probs for a sub-1000mb low
continue to increase in the vicinity of KY/srn IL/IN/OH by 06z
Monday, a signal which was much more muted in past fcst cycles
(due, in part, to variability in placement of the low and timing
of the progression eastward). Regardless, the ensemble mean H8
temps have increased on the order of 2-4C for the srn third of
the local area within the past several runs of suites,
suggesting a trend toward a more pronounced elevated warm layer
(>0C) pivoting further N during the period of heaviest pcpn.
This, of course, has large ramifications regarding pcpn amounts
and ptype evolution, especially as the elevated warm layer aloft
(as seen in the H8 temp fields) may end up quite a bit further
N than previously expected. This may translate into prolonged
mixed wintry pcpn, even N of the OH Rvr, into Sunday
evening/night, which would complicate snow amounts in these
areas where a SN --> FZRA/IP --> SN evolution could occur
throughout the course of the main 18-hour time frame of this
event.

It seems likely, at this juncture, that some mixed (FZRA and/or
IP) wintry pcpn should evolve for at least a brief period of
time late Sunday/night into early Monday across at least the srn
third of the ILN FA, with all snow favored further N
(especially near/N of I-70). Of course, the more mixed pcpn that
occurs, the lower the snow amounts would likely be in those
spots. From a liquid-equiv QPF perspective, ensemble guidance
suggests medium probabilities (~50%) of at least 1" near the OH
Rvr, with high probabilities (>70%) of at least 1" S of the OH
Rvr. So regardless of exact ptype that evolves, we are talking
*significant* amounts of wintry pcpn over a large swath of the
area. This ensemble mean QPF bullseye of around 1" (liquid-
equiv) has also shifted N with successive fcst cycles, mirroring
the same trend noted within the low center clustering. This
only complicates (and magnifies) the forecast and messaging, as
there will be extremely tight ptype and amount gradients that
set up squarely across parts of the local area. From a planning
perspective, right now, it seems increasingly likely that FZRA
or IP will occur for at least part of the event for locales
stretching from SE IN through the Cincy metro area into the
lower Scioto Valley and points S of this axis. Further to the N,
closer to I-70, significant amounts of snow (near or greater
than 6") are favored from Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning.

The evolution of the system into Monday morning also remains
somewhat uncertain as the system should generally have
transitioned to a subtle weakening state by this time, but
wraparound moisture on the backside of the departing low may
keep banded snow going for parts of the area into early
afternoon. Either way, the Monday morning commute is looking to
be significantly impacted by this winter storm region-wide.

At this point in time, general awareness and adequate planning
for a winter storm is the proper course of action. Details
regarding specific ptypes and amounts will become clearer in the
coming days. What is already clear, however, is the likelihood
that an arctic airmass will settle into the region next week,
with much below normal temperatures expected for the foreseeable
future in the OH Vly. Temperatures and wind chills may approach
or exceed critical (advisory) thresholds at times next week,
depending on evolution of cloud cover, winds, and potential for
fresh snowpack. It is, however, looking like the coldest stretch
of the winter thus far for us locally.

[Bgoney]

Per the 18z GFS those snow totals from a Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line and Southward are heavily contaminated with sleet/FZ

[wrmwxfreak]

Per the 18z GFS those snow totals from a Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line and Southward are heavily contaminated with sleet/FZ

When you say the Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line, do you mean the line formed by the northern or southern boundaries of these counties? So, for example, are these counties contaminated as well, or are they north of the contamination? Thanks!

[tron777]

Per the 18z GFS those snow totals from a Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line and Southward are heavily contaminated with sleet/FZ

When you say the Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line, do you mean the line formed by the northern or southern boundaries of these counties? So, for example, are these counties contaminated as well, or are they north of the contamination? Thanks!

I'm not Bgoney, but I would have to say both. I posted the text data for HAO and it has frz rain. Frz rain even gets to MGY.

[tron777]

Same with Wilmington.

Code: Select all

ILN
SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.2    -6.1    1024      65      97    0.07     558     539    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.5    -3.3    1019      96      98    0.46     557     542    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.6     0.1    1010      95      97    0.62     552     544    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.1     1.6    1004      95      94    0.12     544     541    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.6    -6.1    1004      97      90    0.24     536     533    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.7    -9.1    1012      89      97    0.20     539     530  

[Bgoney]

Per the 18z GFS those snow totals from a Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line and Southward are heavily contaminated with sleet/FZ

When you say the Butler/Warren/Highland/Clinton counties line, do you mean the line formed by the northern or southern boundaries of these counties? So, for example, are these counties contaminated as well, or are they north of the contamination? Thanks!

Yes they would be included in contamination. Sorry about that

[Phr0z3n]

What’s up everyone! It’s so refreshing to actually have a storm to track! Tp and Tron are right the models are correcting ( it always happens), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right neither. With that being said I’m also wondering if the track shifting north is done! If this were a Miller B I’d say it would go back south but the blocking high is not coming east with the surface low, probably because of the 50/50 low. It would not surprise me to see this go further north just a little bit. I think spire 0z and 12z have been showing this, but so far that solution is the outlier but not by much. The next 48 hours will be amazing to watch. Also the Waa is usually underdone so my neck of the woods could possible see some sleet with another shift north.

[mikeyp]

What’s up everyone! It’s so refreshing to actually have a storm to track! Tp and Tron are right the models are correcting ( it always happens), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right neither. With that being said I’m also wondering if the track shifting north is done! If this were a Miller B I’d say it would go back south but the blocking high is not coming east with the surface low, probably because of the 50/50 low. It would not surprise me to see this go further north just a little bit. I think spire 0z and 12z have been showing this, but so far that solution is the outlier but not by much. The next 48 hours will be amazing to watch. Also the Waa is usually underdone so my neck of the woods could possible see some sleet with another shift north.

Great to hear from you! And couldn’t agree more!!! This is going to be a fanatic storm

[tron777]

What’s up everyone! It’s so refreshing to actually have a storm to track! Tp and Tron are right the models are correcting ( it always happens), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right neither. With that being said I’m also wondering if the track shifting north is done! If this were a Miller B I’d say it would go back south but the blocking high is not coming east with the surface low, probably because of the 50/50 low. It would not surprise me to see this go further north just a little bit. I think spire 0z and 12z have been showing this, but so far that solution is the outlier but not by much. The next 48 hours will be amazing to watch. Also the Waa is usually underdone so my neck of the woods could possible see some sleet with another shift north.

Great to hear from you! And couldn’t agree more!!! This is going to be a fanatic storm

I hope the bleeding stops soon or I'll be 34 and rain!

[Phr0z3n]

What’s up everyone! It’s so refreshing to actually have a storm to track! Tp and Tron are right the models are correcting ( it always happens), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right neither. With that being said I’m also wondering if the track shifting north is done! If this were a Miller B I’d say it would go back south but the blocking high is not coming east with the surface low, probably because of the 50/50 low. It would not surprise me to see this go further north just a little bit. I think spire 0z and 12z have been showing this, but so far that solution is the outlier but not by much. The next 48 hours will be amazing to watch. Also the Waa is usually underdone so my neck of the woods could possible see some sleet with another shift north.

Great to hear from you! And couldn’t agree more!!! This is going to be a fanatic storm

I hope the bleeding stops soon or I'll be 34 and rain!

For you and Cincy I hope it does stop. Cold rain is the worst. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we seen an Ohio border storm track with this setup before. It looks really familiar to me. I’m not saying that this storm track will do that.

[tron777]

18Z Euro ticked back south vs 12Z.

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.8    -3.4    1022      75      99    0.10     557     540    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -2.4    1015      91     100    0.41     554     543    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -2.7    1009      92      92    0.29     545     538    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -8.7    1011      85     100    0.20     538     530    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.4   -10.1    1018      78      32    0.07     542     528    

HAO

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -5.2    -4.8    1023      66     100    0.07     556     538    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -3.6    1016      90     100    0.43     553     541    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.5    -4.5    1010      87      90    0.22     545     537    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.3    -8.6    1011      86     101    0.19     539     530    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.5   -11.1    1017      81      33    0.02     541     527    

MGY

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -5.0    -6.2    1023      56     100    0.03     555     537    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -6.0    -4.3    1017      90      98    0.44     553     540    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.9    -5.2    1011      87      90    0.20     545     536    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -8.5    1010      86     100    0.10     539     530    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.9   -11.9    1017      84      34    0.03     540     527   

DAY

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.9    -7.5    1023      38      98    0.01     554     536    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -6.1    -5.2    1017      88      97    0.28     552     539    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.8    -6.3    1012      86      93    0.24     544     535    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.5    -8.6    1011      87     100    0.02     539     530    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.9   -12.6    1017      86      36    0.02     539     526    

CMH

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -6.0    -6.3    1019      83      98    0.13     552     538    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.8    -6.3    1013      87      99    0.35     545     535    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -8.7    1010      79      99    0.10     539     531    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.0   -12.3    1014      88      42    0.02     537     526    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.9   -13.4    1020      81      16    0.01     539     524    

FGX

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.2    -2.7    1022      73     100    0.10     558     541    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.1    -2.2    1015      91     100    0.29     556     545    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -3.6     0.7    1007      93      76    0.43     548     542    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.8    -4.5    1007      88      82    0.09     539     534    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.7    -9.7    1015      83      67    0.12     541     529 

[tron777]

What’s up everyone! It’s so refreshing to actually have a storm to track! Tp and Tron are right the models are correcting ( it always happens), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right neither. With that being said I’m also wondering if the track shifting north is done! If this were a Miller B I’d say it would go back south but the blocking high is not coming east with the surface low, probably because of the 50/50 low. It would not surprise me to see this go further north just a little bit. I think spire 0z and 12z have been showing this, but so far that solution is the outlier but not by much. The next 48 hours will be amazing to watch. Also the Waa is usually underdone so my neck of the woods could possible see some sleet with another shift north.

Great to hear from you! And couldn’t agree more!!! This is going to be a fanatic storm

I hope the bleeding stops soon or I'll be 34 and rain!

For you and Cincy I hope it does stop. Cold rain is the worst. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we seen an Ohio border storm track with this setup before. It looks really familiar to me. I’m not saying that this storm track will do that.

No, we haven't. IMO the low track should stay S of I-64. A border track or N TN is better for us to remain snow but if we can keep it S of 64 then it'll at least be all frozen, even here.

[MJSun]

[Phr0z3n]

What’s up everyone! It’s so refreshing to actually have a storm to track! Tp and Tron are right the models are correcting ( it always happens), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right neither. With that being said I’m also wondering if the track shifting north is done! If this were a Miller B I’d say it would go back south but the blocking high is not coming east with the surface low, probably because of the 50/50 low. It would not surprise me to see this go further north just a little bit. I think spire 0z and 12z have been showing this, but so far that solution is the outlier but not by much. The next 48 hours will be amazing to watch. Also the Waa is usually underdone so my neck of the woods could possible see some sleet with another shift north.

Great to hear from you! And couldn’t agree more!!! This is going to be a fanatic storm

I hope the bleeding stops soon or I'll be 34 and rain!

For you and Cincy I hope it does stop. Cold rain is the worst. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we seen an Ohio border storm track with this setup before. It looks really familiar to me. I’m not saying that this storm track will do that.

No, we haven't. IMO the low track should stay S of I-64. A border track or N TN is better for us to remain snow but if we can keep it S of 64 then it'll at least be all frozen, even here.

Ah ok it must have been a little different scenario! I’m definitely rooting for you guys.

[tron777]

Great to hear from you! And couldn’t agree more!!! This is going to be a fanatic storm

I hope the bleeding stops soon or I'll be 34 and rain!

For you and Cincy I hope it does stop. Cold rain is the worst. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we seen an Ohio border storm track with this setup before. It looks really familiar to me. I’m not saying that this storm track will do that.

No, we haven't. IMO the low track should stay S of I-64. A border track or N TN is better for us to remain snow but if we can keep it S of 64 then it'll at least be all frozen, even here.

Ah ok it must have been a little different scenario! I’m definitely rooting for you guys.

You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.

[Phr0z3n]

I hope the bleeding stops soon or I'll be 34 and rain!

For you and Cincy I hope it does stop. Cold rain is the worst. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we seen an Ohio border storm track with this setup before. It looks really familiar to me. I’m not saying that this storm track will do that.

No, we haven't. IMO the low track should stay S of I-64. A border track or N TN is better for us to remain snow but if we can keep it S of 64 then it'll at least be all frozen, even here.

Ah ok it must have been a little different scenario! I’m definitely rooting for you guys.

You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.

After almost 27 years of fighting snowstorms I’m at the point where you can have it.

[Phr0z3n]

For you and Cincy I hope it does stop. Cold rain is the worst. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we seen an Ohio border storm track with this setup before. It looks really familiar to me. I’m not saying that this storm track will do that.

No, we haven't. IMO the low track should stay S of I-64. A border track or N TN is better for us to remain snow but if we can keep it S of 64 then it'll at least be all frozen, even here.

Ah ok it must have been a little different scenario! I’m definitely rooting for you guys.

You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.

After almost 27 years of fighting snowstorms I’m at the point where you can have it.

Although it’s looking like we’re in the game anyways to plow because our snow ratios will be much higher. Not to mention Lake Erie will get involved.

[tron777]

CB evening update with some good 18Z Euro maps:

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=68674

[tron777]

No, we haven't. IMO the low track should stay S of I-64. A border track or N TN is better for us to remain snow but if we can keep it S of 64 then it'll at least be all frozen, even here.

Ah ok it must have been a little different scenario! I’m definitely rooting for you guys.

You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.

After almost 27 years of fighting snowstorms I’m at the point where you can have it.

Although it’s looking like we’re in the game anyways to plow because our snow ratios will be much higher. Not to mention Lake Erie will get involved.

True! I hate the freezing rain part though. Hoping the 18Z Euro has the right idea where they jumped north but will slowly correct back south a smidge. Not by a lot but enough where precip type differences and impacts are huge in our area! They always set up near the Oh River, almost every single time.

[Phr0z3n]

Ah ok it must have been a little different scenario! I’m definitely rooting for you guys.

You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.

After almost 27 years of fighting snowstorms I’m at the point where you can have it.

Although it’s looking like we’re in the game anyways to plow because our snow ratios will be much higher. Not to mention Lake Erie will get involved.

True! I hate the freezing rain part though. Hoping the 18Z Euro has the right idea where they jumped north but will slowly correct back south a smidge. Not by a lot but enough where precip type differences and impacts are huge in our area! They always set up near the Oh River, almost every single time.

Yep I’d rather deal with snow any day. Maybe 18z euro is on to something. A lot of times 18z gfs is the one that starts the right Trend so maybe 18z euro is the same way.

[tron777]

You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.

After almost 27 years of fighting snowstorms I’m at the point where you can have it.

Although it’s looking like we’re in the game anyways to plow because our snow ratios will be much higher. Not to mention Lake Erie will get involved.

True! I hate the freezing rain part though. Hoping the 18Z Euro has the right idea where they jumped north but will slowly correct back south a smidge. Not by a lot but enough where precip type differences and impacts are huge in our area! They always set up near the Oh River, almost every single time.

Yep I’d rather deal with snow any day. Maybe 18z euro is on to something. A lot of times 18z gfs is the one that starts the right Trend so maybe 18z euro is the same way.

I'll see it in the morning lol Fingers crossed! Tomorrow will be an interesting day anyway as we start to get some sampling.

[tron777]

Okay folks... got to get up early for work in the morning. Keep it going and I'll catch up early in the morning. Good luck to us all!

[Phr0z3n]

You would want a low pass over my house to jackpot.

After almost 27 years of fighting snowstorms I’m at the point where you can have it.

Although it’s looking like we’re in the game anyways to plow because our snow ratios will be much higher. Not to mention Lake Erie will get involved.

True! I hate the freezing rain part though. Hoping the 18Z Euro has the right idea where they jumped north but will slowly correct back south a smidge. Not by a lot but enough where precip type differences and impacts are huge in our area! They always set up near the Oh River, almost every single time.

Yep I’d rather deal with snow any day. Maybe 18z euro is on to something. A lot of times 18z gfs is the one that starts the right Trend so maybe 18z euro is the same way.

Spire has really been consistent in a northerly track. And ukmet/icon have been hinting at this as well before the major models shifted north

IMG_1220.png

That’s why I added my thoughts to a more northerly track.