Snow43130 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 8:24 pm
Im glad I'm checking here for Sunday- Mondays storm , could be calling off work Monday lol I know the brutal cold is coming this week so my question is a little ahead but the weather for January 11th does it look clear no snow? My daughter is getting married that day .
Depends on where she is getting married. Right now, granted we are still 10 days out, it shows that storm running along the Gulf coast and threatening AL/MS/GA/FL and the Carolinas with a winter storm that may include ice and snow into the Florida panhandle.
4 days out
Aaron was referring to the Jan 11th storm as 10 days out.
Good Morning and a day closer to the first big storm of 2025. What has changed and really nothing that I see on the models this morning. No detailed forecast but snow starting near the noon hour Sunday and ending as snow Monday afternoon or early evening. The question is what happens in the middle of the storm. Going to be some mixed precip with this system but when and where is just to early to call. Probably have another day of the old flip flop of models and may not be until the late runs Friday before models really get together but really they have been pretty much on the same page the last few days and though some changes nothing major imo.
When the storm is at its peak this will usually be the time the warmer air aloft has a better shot of moving north. This may be Sunday night though timing is still in the works. If the storm is stronger then the dreaded sleet word comes into play. I have been downplaying this but from past systems a stronger storm can no doubt end up producing a area of sleet for an extended period. Frz/rain which is horrible seems like a real possibility somewhere in the Ohio Valley. This looks to be towards the I-64 area and south and this could be such a mess because temps before hand or cold and the roads cold as well plus do we ever see a changeover to just plain rain. Just early in the game here but no doubt road conditions locally from about noon or so Sunday through Tuesday morning are going to be a mess as the storm ends with snow and temps dropping.
Good morning and EGADS! I mean that in a good way! QPF continues to creep upwards. 1 to 1.25" of QPF now being shown for CVG. If the low tracks into Southern or SC KY then we may see some mixing issues esp in the Tri-state area on south. I-70 Crew IMO will be all snow. If we get a KY / TN border track or N TN, then even Cincy should remain all snow and get absolutely clobbered! We'll see what the new data shows today but I am beginning to narrow things down.
From the boys:
After a dry start to the weekend, our attention turns to the
impactful system expected Sunday afternoon through early Monday. A
low pressure system strengthens off the lee side of the Rockies on
Sunday and takes an eastward track through the lower Ohio / upper
Tennessee Valleys. Given the more southern extent of this low
pressure track (and the cold ambient air temperatures already in
place), we are expecting wintry precipitation for all of our
counties throughout this event. One consistent feature in global
models has been a maximum QPF axis developing over the southern half
of our CWA. In fact, PWATs become 150-200% of normal by Sunday
night, highlighting the abundance of moisture present with this
system.
The challenging aspect to message with this system is that there
will likely be a notable gradient that develops in our southern OH/
northern KY counties on snowfall totals. This gradient will develop
as an H850 warm nose develops, leading to thermal profiles that
would favor more of a freezing rain and perhaps sleet scenario for
some counties during a portion of the event. Will have to monitor
trends in models as headlines may be needed to specifically
highlight ice impacts.
From a probabilistic view, it does appear likely that greater than 6
inches of snow is expected for a portion of our southern OH /
southeast IN counties. This would eventually warrant the need for a
Winter Storm Warning if this trend continues. Probabilities for the
same locations are around 50% for greater than 8 inches of snow,
highlighting the growing certainty for an impactful winter storm.
Snow totals in models start to gradually decrease as you head north
of the I-70 corridor.
After the winter storm moves through, our focus then shifts to an
extended period of bitterly cold temperatures. An Arctic air mass
settles into the region and continues to be reinforced with very
cold air throughout the work week and perhaps into the following
weekend (and beyond).
It has been incredible how the models have been so consistent with this system . The real test is still going to be 12z Saturday suite of runs when the s/w will have been fully sampled . Going to the grocery today cause there won’t be anything on the shelves come Saturday
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 4:29 am
It has been incredible how the models have been so consistent with this system . The real test is still going to be 12z Saturday suite of runs when the s/w will have been fully sampled . Going to the grocery today cause there won’t be anything on the shelves come Saturday
No doubt! I'm stocked up and ready to go here! I have to work today and tomorrow, back to normal but I don't think I'll be too busy this week (I hope lol)
Good Morning Les and looks like we are going to be busy the next few days. The track of the system is key like in most storms and just a jog 25 miles northwest can be a snow killer. Love to see a Memphis-Corbin track and this would just destroy us with snow. How far north will the low go before heading east and again way to early. No doubt tons of precip as the western GOM open for business. Having the cold in place before a storm is so important and that is a big key why this storm is going to provide terrible road conditions. 100p/c we get some snow accumulations locally lol.
This is a big storm for us and one we don't see every winter season. Cold before the storm and yes cold at the end is a wonderful. Again the models will not be perfect on this storm and not expecting that ever to happen with a storm this size because to many variables.
Btw the clipper late today and early Friday is so important. Not because we get slammed with snow though expecting a dusting to 1 inch but it keeps the cold coming in here before the big storm. Sunday watching the wind direction and if we stay with a northeast wind then watch out. If this switches to the east then we will need to watch for the mixing.
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 4:29 am
It has been incredible how the models have been so consistent with this system . The real test is still going to be 12z Saturday suite of runs when the s/w will have been fully sampled . Going to the grocery today cause there won’t be anything on the shelves come Saturday
I have enough food to last through July. The holidays is a food fest and we have so much food frozen I should be good. Plenty of beer as well so no panic from me lol. The models for a storm this far away have been about as consistent as I have seen in years. Even though we have a dip in the ocean waters and some calling it a La Nina but its really ENSO neutral and it seems models are geared more towards that and we do see the models not going back and forth as much.
I believe on this site we are not a hype forum by any means. Yesterday I saw some You Tube videos from different folks and some are fine but others are making up facts and that is never good. One I saw is where the person mentioned that the temps around the north poles is the coldest it has ever been and quit throwing this stuff out. Matter of fact its been milder than normal winter around the poles though in the last week it has got closer to normal. Enough of my rant lol
Okay we are off to the races and the first winter storm watch has been issued for northeast Kansas and this is for Saturday afternoon until Sunday afternoon. Going to have a very colorful map before all is said and done. Concerning snow totals from overnight really nothing has changed except precip totals have gone up somewhat. One other item and seems to be forgotten and the winds with this system. This could really come into play imo overnight Sunday and Monday.
So many items involved and sure some will be repeated especially from me lol. This storm looks to have some thundershowers develop on Sunday. This can be a good or bad depending how the development of these happen and how they move. I have seen where precip totals were robbed by about half in some storms but also they can add moisture as well and you see a period of very heavy snow for a period of time. Again just another thought and lord knows way to many in this huge head
6z GFS shows a slight shift northward with a period of sleet/FZrain , counties bordering the river
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:18 am
So many items involved and sure some will be repeated especially from me lol. This storm looks to have some thundershowers develop on Sunday. This can be a good or bad depending how the development of these happen and how they move. I have seen where precip totals were robbed by about half in some storms but also they can add moisture as well and you see a period of very heavy snow for a period of time. Again just another thought and lord knows way to many in this huge head
lol Tim. You better add Valium to your list of must haves!!!
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:18 am
So many items involved and sure some will be repeated especially from me lol. This storm looks to have some thundershowers develop on Sunday. This can be a good or bad depending how the development of these happen and how they move. I have seen where precip totals were robbed by about half in some storms but also they can add moisture as well and you see a period of very heavy snow for a period of time. Again just another thought and lord knows way to many in this huge head
lol Tim. You better add Valium to your list of must haves!!!
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:18 am
So many items involved and sure some will be repeated especially from me lol. This storm looks to have some thundershowers develop on Sunday. This can be a good or bad depending how the development of these happen and how they move. I have seen where precip totals were robbed by about half in some storms but also they can add moisture as well and you see a period of very heavy snow for a period of time. Again just another thought and lord knows way to many in this huge head
lol Tim. You better add Valium to your list of must haves!!!
Lol. Does bourbon work!!!!
You know it!
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:23 am
6z GFS shows a slight shift northward with a period of sleet/FZrain , counties bordering the river
Yep. Text data showing the same. Snow, sleet, to frz rain, then back to snow. The amount of QPF is going to be insane with this thing too! 1.64" at CVG I could see a solid band of 8-12" or more of snow for folks who can remain all snow throughout the event.
I can't copy the link in here right now, but if you go to YouTube and search for DT wxrisk and you should find This Week in Weather from 1/1. He will probably touch upon our storm. I am watching the video now.
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:08 am
just seen overnight runs and yes it looks like the storm may be moving north and a bit stronger. not what i wanted to see.
Another amazing agreement from the models has been that if the Low strength can stay above 1000mb as it passes south, the mid level warm tongue doesn’t advance as far north into Ohio. So when the time comes to nowcasting a must watch is the strength the Low maintains
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 7:54 am
Another amazing agreement from the models has been that if the Low strength can stay above 1000mb as it passes south, the mid level warm tongue doesn’t advance as far north into Ohio. So when the time comes to nowcasting a must watch is the strength the Low maintains
Agreed! The 6Z Euro was a tick back to the south due to that very reason.
12Z NAM is going to come in a tick north with the sleet / ice line to just about CVG where it stops at 84 hours. What I am seeing is we either get that solution with a stronger low or if it stays a bit weaker, then all snow. I think we're getting the solutions down to two scenarios now. At CVG, we either stay all snow or get some mixing in there. One or the other. A big mess either way for sure with the cold temps moving in after the storm.
