January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[markalot]

Logged in and ready I am telling myself this will be a sleet / rain event, anything better is icing (hopefully not ice) on the cake. GFS north, Euro south, seems like that's where we want to be right now.

[tron777]

540 thicknesses at CVG are 542 so sleet may try and mix in Cincy tri-state and S of river otherwise all snow north of there for everyone else. Ice concern still over our S counties S of CVG Metro and into Central KY. Major icing concern in our SE counties on this run.

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.2    -3.9    1020      66     100    0.05     556     540    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -3.3    1012      91      99    0.39     551     542    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.9    -2.9    1006      90      77    0.23     543     538    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.3   -10.2    1011      87     100    0.17     536     528    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.3   -12.0    1017      79      59    0.07     540     527    

HAO

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.9    -5.6    1021      47      99    0.03     555     538    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.3    -4.2    1013      90     101    0.38     551     541    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.3    -4.6    1008      91      87    0.21     542     537    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.4   -10.3    1011      86      99    0.13     536     528    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.8   -12.7    1017      83      49    0.06     540     527   

MGY

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.3    -6.9    1021      45      99    0.02     554     538    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -6.0    -4.6    1014      89     100    0.32     550     540    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -5.1    1008      87      90    0.28     542     536    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.6   -10.1    1010      87     100    0.08     537     528    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -5.1   -12.7    1016      85      45    0.05     539     526    

DAY

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.0    -7.6    1021      38      98    0.02     553     537    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -6.1    -5.4    1015      87     100    0.22     550     539    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -6.2    1009      85      93    0.17     542     535    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.8   -10.0    1011      87     101    0.06     537     528    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -5.3   -13.1    1016      86      40    0.02     539     526   

CMH

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -6.0    1016      83     100    0.14     550     538    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.5    -6.3    1010      85     100    0.18     543     535    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.5    -9.3    1008      79     100    0.04     537     530    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.0   -12.9    1013      86      49    0.03     537     527    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -6.0   -14.9    1020      82      38    0.01     539     524  

FGX - Sleet and frz rain ending as a few inches of snow.  Huge mess!

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.2    -1.9    1012      92      98    0.42     554     545    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -3.5     1.0    1004      92      58    0.24     545     541    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.7    -7.0    1007      89     100    0.11     537     531    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.9   -11.6    1015      83      91    0.11     540     528

[Bgoney]

Looks like a mix issue all the way up to Dayton . A 998 low and a 1000 low makes a big difference

[fyrfyter]

Even with the sleet cutting it down, still a solid snow hit as well.

It’s 11.4 as all snow, so could easily be a 4-6” event.

[airwolf76]

gotta love tracking these storms with days to go. fun times !. sure is windy out there today and also had a few sleet/ice pellets come down at times.

[MJSun]

540 thicknesses at CVG are 542 so sleet may try and mix in Cincy tri-state and S of river otherwise all snow north of there for everyone else. Ice concern still over our S counties S of CVG Metro and into Central KY. Major icing concern in our SE counties on this run.

And there it is- sleet/cold rain start butting in while north gets snow.

Come on storm - throw us a bone!!

[tron777]

Models will go back and forth with the strength until some of the energy gets sampled on Friday / Fri night.

[dce]

Models will go back and forth with the strength until some of the energy gets sampled on Friday / Fri night.

As we've all heard, the windshield washer effect. We are in a great spot at the moment. With the blocking to the north, as we've talked about, this thing isn't going to go too far north. Could there still be some mixing in my opinion, yes, but I think when all is said and done the ice and sleet will be in Kentucky. I would be more concerned about a southward shift them a northern shift. All that said, we all have opinions at this point, 4 days out is still a lot of room for adjustments.

[airwolf76]

540 thicknesses at CVG are 542 so sleet may try and mix in Cincy tri-state and S of river otherwise all snow north of there for everyone else. Ice concern still over our S counties S of CVG Metro and into Central KY. Major icing concern in our SE counties on this run.

And there it is- sleet/cold rain start butting in while north gets snow.

Come on storm - throw us a bone!!

the storm signal is strong thats about all you need to worry about at this time. details will start to emerge as you get closer

[tron777]

12Z EPS SLP Clusters = Still S of OP Euro.

EPS.png

[tron777]

12Z EPS QPF Mean is between 0.75" north and 1" southern areas. That is pretty significant on an Ensemble Mean.

[tron777]

CB First Call Precip Type:

CB First Call.jpg

[MJSun]

540 thicknesses at CVG are 542 so sleet may try and mix in Cincy tri-state and S of river otherwise all snow north of there for everyone else. Ice concern still over our S counties S of CVG Metro and into Central KY. Major icing concern in our SE counties on this run.

And there it is- sleet/cold rain start butting in while north gets snow.

Come on storm - throw us a bone!!

the storm signal is strong thats about all you need to worry about at this time. details will start to emerge as you get closer

I'll try. Been torched too often!

[tron777]

Early zone forecast from the boys:

Sunday Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Sunday Night. Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Monday Snow. Highs in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Monday Night Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Lows around 15. Chance of snow 40 percent.

Latest thinking from the boys:

The main item of interest for the long term period is going to
be the evolution of the system poised to impact the region
Sunday into Monday. At these time ranges, we can only speak
reliably to trends within the ensemble data/solutions and will
refrain at this point from any mention of specific amounts of
snow and/or ice.

Synoptically, by Saturday night, the expansive ern trof should
be pulling away from the OH Vly, with midlevel ridging building
E in its immediate wake. This midlevel ridge will nudge E into
the region by late Saturday/night, but will gradually flatten as
the ejecting S/W into the central plains will move E quicker
than the departing ern trof will pull away. Although the
approaching trof will be positively-tilted, it will be subtly
deepening/strengthening into early Sunday, spreading large-scale
ascent (and moisture) eastward into the mid MS/OH Vlys during
the day. The evolution and tracks of these types of systems is
so important for determining exactly how a storm unfolds and
what impacts are felt for various locations.

At this juncture, there has been a trend within the ensemble
guidance for a slightly stronger/further N track of the low
center (supported by ensemble member low center clustering) as
it progresses E through the srn OH Vly and nrn TN Vly late
Sunday/night. This would suggest a slightly further N pivoting
of the all-important baroclinic zone, which will be draped W to
E in the vicinity of srn IL/IN through N KY and srn OH by 00z
Monday. It seems probable, at this juncture, that some mixed
(FZRA and/or IP) wintry pcpn should evolve for at least a brief
period of time late Sunday/night into early Monday across the
srn parts of the ILN FA, with all snow favored further N
(especially near/N of I-70). Of course, the more mixed pcpn that
occurs, the lower the snow amounts would likely be in those
spots. From a liquid-equiv QPF perspective, ensemble guidance
suggests high probabilities of at least 0.5" N of the OH Rvr,
with equally-high probabilities of 0.5" to 1" near/S of the OH
Rvr. So regardless of exact ptype that evolves, we are talking
significant amounts of wintry pcpn. This ensemble mean QPF
bullseye of around 1" (liquid-equiv) has also shifted N with
successive fcst cycles, mirroring the same trend noted within
the low center clustering. This only complicates (and magnifies)
the forecast and messaging, although we are still 4-5 days out,
so we have some time to narrow down some specifics.

At this point in time, general awareness and adequate planning
for a winter storm is the proper course of action. Details
regarding specific ptypes and amounts will become clearer in the
coming days. What is already clear, however, is the likelihood
that an arctic airmass will settle into the region next week,
with much below normal temperatures expected for the foreseeable
future in the OH Vly.

Temperatures and wind chills may approach critical (advisory)
thresholds at times next week, depending on evolution of cloud
cover, winds, and potential for fresh snowpack. It is, however,
looking like the coldest stretch of the winter thus far for us
locally.

[tron777]

12Z EPS for Lunken! Nice!

EPS Lunken.png

[tron777]

18Z GFS is a tick south, weaker, and faster. Should be a great run!

[tron777]

All snow for CVG Land wow! What a nice run!

[tron777]

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CVG

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.2    -4.5    1020      56      96    0.16     554     538    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.2    -5.2    1015      95      94    0.31     550     538    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -7.8    1014      95      99    0.21     542     530    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.0    -9.9    1018      94      91    0.03     541     527    

[Trentonwx06]

18Z GFS is a tick south, weaker, and faster. Should be a great run!

Honestly like where we sit on this, these usually shift a tick north at game time so hopefully we stay in a great spot.

[tron777]

18Z Euro came in more north. Snow to sleet to frz rain then back to snow at CVG.

Code: Select all

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.6    -3.0    1018      89     100    0.38     556     542    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -3.8     0.3    1008      92      98    0.45     552     546    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -3.8     0.5    1001      92      48    0.18     541     540    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.8   -10.6    1006      87     100    0.12     533     529    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.4   -11.2    1015      78      64    0.07     537     526    

[Snow43130]

Im glad I'm checking here for Sunday- Mondays storm , could be calling off work Monday lol I know the brutal cold is coming this week so my question is a little ahead but the weather for January 11th does it look clear no snow? My daughter is getting married that day .

[fyrfyter]

Im glad I'm checking here for Sunday- Mondays storm , could be calling off work Monday lol I know the brutal cold is coming this week so my question is a little ahead but the weather for January 11th does it look clear no snow? My daughter is getting married that day .

Depends on where she is getting married. Right now, granted we are still 10 days out, it shows that storm running along the Gulf coast and threatening AL/MS/GA/FL and the Carolinas with a winter storm that may include ice and snow into the Florida panhandle.

[mikeyp]

Im glad I'm checking here for Sunday- Mondays storm , could be calling off work Monday lol I know the brutal cold is coming this week so my question is a little ahead but the weather for January 11th does it look clear no snow? My daughter is getting married that day .

Depends on where she is getting married. Right now, granted we are still 10 days out, it shows that storm running along the Gulf coast and threatening AL/MS/GA/FL and the Carolinas with a winter storm that may include ice and snow into the Florida panhandle.

4 days out

[Snow43130]

Im glad I'm checking here for Sunday- Mondays storm , could be calling off work Monday lol I know the brutal cold is coming this week so my question is a little ahead but the weather for January 11th does it look clear no snow? My daughter is getting married that day .

Depends on where she is getting married. Right now, granted we are still 10 days out, it shows that storm running along the Gulf coast and threatening AL/MS/GA/FL and the Carolinas with a winter storm that may include ice and snow into the Florida panhandle.

4 days out

She is getting married in fairfield county 35 min from Columbus

[CINCINNATI01]

Screenshot_20250101_233720_Chrome.jpg

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