January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[tron777]

It is time to get a thread started since we are dealing with a Day 5/6 threat. Euro continues to hammer the area with the CMC, ICON and EPS lending its support. GFS is further south and weaker with the UKIE ridiculously north. Timing ranges anywhere from Sunday afternoon to wee hours of Sunday morning, mainly a Monday event as it stands right now. Duration: Roughly could be 12 to 20 hours of snowfall depending on storm evolution, strength, and track and what model you currently choose.

WPC's graphic, which CB posted on his FB Page just now highlights our area for 1/5 in the heavy snow zone.

NOAA.jpg

[tpweather]

Great Les and since you started the thread I decided to take a look at the afternoon models.

[tron777]

Great Les and since you started the thread I decided to take a look at the afternoon models.

I hope it's not too early. I just couldn't help myself.

[tron777]

Let the Media Hype begin!

WAVE3.jpg

CB.jpg

[tron777]

18Z GEFS Mean has 4" for the region. Gotta like that!

[tron777]

From the 12Z Euro EPS, like what BG posts for LOU in his blog videos. I found one posted on American Wx lol This is for Lunken Airport.

EPS LUK.png

[tpweather]

Les you made a wonderful post earlier from a question I had about the strength of the storm and you mentioned still fine until it gets over the mountains and then heads out to sea. I agree with this 100p/c and also glad to see the gfs has moved further north this past run.

Always nothing is certain but a storm seems very likely even this far out and the pattern along with the models back this up. All types of precip should occur and maybe some thundershowers to the south but don't see a strong signal but do see a strong signal for a decent amount of GOM moisture heading northward.

Locally we seem to be in a decent spot for at least snow on the front and back end of the system and what happens in the middle of the storm is key into getting a big snow or a decent snow but other types of precip involved. Somewhere there is going to be some frz/rain and still believe that is along either side of the mountains but we know with the warm front that will be with this storm can sometimes push warmer air over the top much further north than models show. Good item imo is cold air on the back side is really cold and this war could be won by that colder air and keep us from getting the ice part of the storm.

Temps are plenty cold enough ahead of the storm so roads should be below 32 for all of the storm imo. After the storm and how cold we get will be determined by how much snow is on the ground. Can we get below zero next week and no doubt that is possible and though the cold next week is cold another shot the following week may be colder due to the PV.

Have not mentioned sleet and at this point not seeing a great signal for that however if the storm gets stronger than what I see then we will need to watch out for that and sleet always a snow killer as we know around here.

[tpweather]

Les I am not sure we had any hype last season after Christmas so let the hype begin lol.

[tron777]

Les I am not sure we had any hype last season after Christmas so let the hype begin lol.

The overall pattern is going to be fantastic for cold and snow lovers and long lasting too IMHO. We may finally see one of those old fashioned winters, or at least a period of it coming up!

Analogs for the next few weeks are 1985, 1977, 2009 all cold and snowy winters!

[tpweather]

I agree Les and love what the CMC shows but not so much on exactly where the heaviest snow falls but it tends to keep the snow totals on more of an west to east progression. That is sort of how I see this storm playing out. Again the CMC shows the heaviest over us with 14 inches and of course lower totals north and south. My point is I like how the model is painting a picture of a decent system but is rather slow moving and some higher totals possible. At the end of the day we may end up with 4 inches and the higher totals toward Louisville or it may be higher towards Indy. Totals are just fools gold at the moment but it can paint a picture of how the storm progresses.

The pattern is ripe and yes sometimes a great pattern can lead to a bummer in the snow equation but also it can lead to some of the best winter weather we have seen in years and especially January. Even the great winters of 76-77 and 77-78 had milder periods and we do not live in a place that is going to have 3 months of snow.

Btw saw a huge snowstorm in Italy over Christmas and why does this matter and it sort of shows that some lower latitudes are getting into the action and though my guess much of that in the mountains it tells me colder air is dislodging from the polar regions and if we can just keep it away from Asia for the next several weeks we should be just fine.

I know we have folks on here that make part of their living off cleaning streets,parking lots,etc and hopefully this will be a good year for them.

[tron777]

Yeah... for you plow guys on our forum, 2025 IMO maybe off to a good start! We'll see how things look in the coming days. This thing is still over 4,000 miles away from us out over the Pacific Ocean.

[tpweather]

Okay heading upstairs to watch something with my lovely wife and still not sure why she has stayed with me all these years but hopefully a light bulb never goes off in her head. Will be back early in the morning and want to wish everyone a Happy New Year and to our leader Les lets hope 2025 brings a Super Bowl Winner.

[tron777]

Okay heading upstairs to watch something with my lovely wife and still not sure why she has stayed with me all these years but hopefully a light bulb never goes off in her head. Will be back early in the morning and want to wish everyone a Happy New Year and to our leader Les lets hope 2025 brings a Super Bowl Winner.

Thanks Tim! Happy New Year!

[tron777]

18Z Euro:

18ZEuro.png

Big reduction in precip amounts but those higher end Euro totals we were seeing were likely overdone. Still a respectable storm.

Code: Select all

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.8    -6.9    1024      72     101    0.07     555     537    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.3    -4.9    1018      91     100    0.42     553     539    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -6.6    1014      89      83    0.17     545     534    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.2    -8.7    1014      79      96    0.01     539     528    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.9    -8.8    1020      78      16    0.01     542     527    

[tron777]

A friendly reminder on how to properly track winter storms!

Winter Storm Tracking.jpg

[tron777]

18Z EPS Mean. Snow map is at a 10:1 ratio. This is up by 1" versus 12Z's run.

18Z EPS.png

[BookNerdCarp]

Will we see higher ratios than 10:1

[MJSun]

Please please let this happen - I'd love for a good storm.
Happy New Year everyone!!!!

[MJSun]

A friendly reminder on how to properly track winter storms!


Winter Storm Tracking.jpg

Lol - I'd like to edit #8:

"Verification: 3 inches. Of Cold Rain. Area 20 miles north gets 3 feet of snow. Bang head against wall"

[mikeyp]

Gfs and Canadian look good. Canadian has a some sleet mixing in at a time but both models give us a hefty amount of 6+

[Trentonwx06]

Gfs and Canadian look good. Canadian has a some sleet mixing in at a time but both models give us a hefty amount of 6+

Can add the UK to this as well, really nice agreement bringing in the New Year! See what Euro says.

[fyrfyter]

00z Euro - gives us almost 24 hours of snowfall and the amounts are back up again.

IMG_0893.jpeg

IMG_0892.jpeg

[fyrfyter]

0z EPS is up to 5.7”

IMG_0894.jpeg

[airwolf76]

nice to see this potential for you guys. looks so promising still 4/5 days out so who knows but am so happy for you guys to get a snowstorm since I know how rare they can be. i am not even jealous since i will be happy to have no snow the first week of the month since i have some things i want t o get done but i would not mind to see something at some point later on in the month. my early guess is its going to end up cold and dry with a clipper type snow potential but i am not expecting to see any big dawgs anytime soon.

[tron777]

Good morning all and as stated... the overnight models are starting to narrow the goal posts. You have to like what you see! For the best snows, the mixing line has to be close you know so it's a high risk, high reward set up as has been previously mentioned.

Code: Select all

CVG - 0Z GFS

MON 06Z 06-JAN  -3.2    -4.6    1023      43      97    0.01     559     541    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.1    -2.8    1014      90      98    0.40     553     542    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.4    -0.9    1007      96      96    0.38     544     538    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.7    -3.4    1007      96      90    0.26     542     536    
TUE 06Z 07-JAN  -4.2    -9.0    1012      96      97    0.04     540     531    
TUE 12Z 07-JAN  -6.5    -9.3    1017      95      85    0.02     541     528    

CVG - 6Z GFS

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -2.5    -5.7    1025      48      97    0.07     558     538    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.0    -3.8    1019      78      96    0.10     555     540    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.9    -2.4    1012      95      99    0.22     550     540    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.4    -2.6    1009      95     100    0.21     543     536    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.6    -9.0    1013      95      97    0.06     541     531    
TUE 06Z 07-JAN  -5.8   -10.3    1018      92      81    0.02     543     528    

CVG - 0Z Euro

SUN 12Z 05-JAN  -4.9    -7.8    1026      47     100    0.01     556     535    
SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.9    -5.9    1022      77     100    0.11     555     538    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.6    -4.6    1015      90     100    0.46     551     540    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -6.1    -6.7    1011      87      98    0.23     542     534    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.9   -10.0    1017      84      96    0.10     539     526    

CVG - 6Z Euro

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.6    -4.5    1022      71     100    0.08     556     539    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.2    -3.9    1016      91     100    0.50     553     540    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.5    -5.3    1011      88      84    0.22     545     536    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.8    -9.2    1012      85      99    0.03     539     529    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -5.2   -10.8    1018      79      31    0.02     539     525