January 2025 Wx Discussion

[tron777]

I also like what you said Tim. We have several days of cold prior to this system so whatever we get (assuming it is wintry) will immediately stick.

[mainevilleweather]

I like the Kuchera on the 12z euro. 15 inches area wide!

[tpweather]

I also like what you said Tim. We have several days of cold prior to this system so whatever we get (assuming it is wintry) will immediately stick.

Hey Les and I think that is one key to the forecast. Sure the system could become to strong and we end up with snow-ice-rain which is always a pain but not seeing a big southeast ridge developing because of the two fronts before next weekend. The way these first two cold fronts are directed more to the southeast instead of the south central. We may end up getting GOM from the western areas which should still be rather mild plus at this time it looks like more cold entering the system as well. Still early in the ballgame but at least there should be a ballgame.

[tpweather]

One last item and that is the clipper for late Thursday and Friday. That system has a chance to provide at least a dusting and my guess a little more. This clipper is sort of gaining strength as it gets near us and something we have not seen much with these clippers. Still several days away but sometimes these systems get overlooked because of a possible bigger system in the works.

[tron777]

I like the Kuchera on the 12z euro. 15 inches area wide!

Can you post that if possible just for eye candy purposes only!

[tron777]

I also like what you said Tim. We have several days of cold prior to this system so whatever we get (assuming it is wintry) will immediately stick.

Hey Les and I think that is one key to the forecast. Sure the system could become to strong and we end up with snow-ice-rain which is always a pain but not seeing a big southeast ridge developing because of the two fronts before next weekend. The way these first two cold fronts are directed more to the southeast instead of the south central. We may end up getting GOM from the western areas which should still be rather mild plus at this time it looks like more cold entering the system as well. Still early in the ballgame but at least there should be a ballgame.

The other key is the banana high to the north. If that block is there, it ain't cuttin'. Period.

[tron777]

One last item and that is the clipper for late Thursday and Friday. That system has a chance to provide at least a dusting and my guess a little more. This clipper is sort of gaining strength as it gets near us and something we have not seen much with these clippers. Still several days away but sometimes these systems get overlooked because of a possible bigger system in the works.

I am watching it closely. Not a thread starting system but a wintry teaser anyway. Euro is the weakest. GFS and CMC "strongest".

[tron777]

18Z GFS came in with up to 1" of snow possible Fri with that first little system. Then for the 5-6th it totally caved to the Euro's solution. Much weaker / south. Then we get very cold. Couple of snowpack refreshing clippers, and more very cold air. We could see 7-10 or more days below freezing coming up. While not record breaking, it's been a while.

EDIT: 18Z GEFS also a noticeable shift south.

[tron777]

CB already has first call precip type maps out.

CB1.jpg

CB2.jpg

[dce]

18Z GFS came in with up to 1" of snow possible Fri with that first little system. Then for the 5-6th it totally caved to the Euro's solution. Much weaker / south. Then we get very cold. Couple of snowpack refreshing clippers, and more very cold air. We could see 7-10 or more days below freezing coming up. While not record breaking, it's been a while.

EDIT: 18Z GEFS also a noticeable shift south.

At least we have some fun things to track. I'm with Tim, these little systems like the one coming on Thursday/Friday can be sneaky. It doesn't take much for them to overachieve. Not talking big time overachieving, but 2 or 2.5 inches out of a system like this is not unheard of. Models don't always pick up on intensity very well with these types of systems. Anyway, I think it's one to watch as we get closer. Then, of course, we have the system on the 6th. And when we are dealing with this level of brutal cold that is coming, it's impossible for the models to pick up on just the slightest disturbance in the atmosphere. It doesn't take much lift at all the ring out a couple inches of fluff in this type of cold with just the weakest of disturbances. The models just can't see them, sometimes, more than a day or two out.

[tron777]

18Z GFS came in with up to 1" of snow possible Fri with that first little system. Then for the 5-6th it totally caved to the Euro's solution. Much weaker / south. Then we get very cold. Couple of snowpack refreshing clippers, and more very cold air. We could see 7-10 or more days below freezing coming up. While not record breaking, it's been a while.

EDIT: 18Z GEFS also a noticeable shift south.

At least we have some fun things to track. I'm with Tim, these little systems like the one coming on Thursday/Friday can be sneaky. It doesn't take much for them to overachieve. Not talking big time overachieving, but 2 or 2.5 inches out of a system like this is not unheard of. Models don't always pick up on intensity very well with these types of systems. Anyway, I think it's one to watch as we get closer. Then, of course, we have the system on the 6th. And when we are dealing with this level of brutal cold that is coming, it's impossible for the models to pick up on just the slightest disturbance in the atmosphere. It doesn't take much lift at all the ring out a couple inches of fluff in this type of cold with just the weakest of disturbances. The models just can't see them, sometimes, more than a day or two out.

I think the pattern is ripe for cold, snow, ice, rain, all kinds of fun for the next 2-3 weeks. I think an inch is not out of the question for the Fri wave. Euro is even stronger trending towards the GFS and CMC. I could see an inch or so with that system the way things stand right now.

[tron777]

Days Since Last WSW.jpg

[fyrfyter]

I like the Kuchera on the 12z euro. 15 inches area wide!

Can you post that if possible just for eye candy purposes only!

Here it is! 13.7” in 24 hrs. High risk/High Reward setup with that track!

IMG_0889.jpeg

[fyrfyter]

Here is the single frame of the Low track that shows the setup- essentially the Low tracks close to KY/TN Border before creeping into Central KY and then heading East

IMG_0890.jpeg

[Ddmeyer004]

I'm doing my part. Will be moving a few miles north to Tipp City, Ohio between January 7 and the 13. You can bank on some nasty Winter weather during that time!

Welcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here

Very cool. When in Minster, a stop at the Wooden Shoe Inn is a must. Do you have other recommendations?

Wooden Shie is good but must stop at Buds Pizza across the street

[mainevilleweather]

snow.png

I like the Kuchera on the 12z euro. 15 inches area wide!

Can you post that if possible just for eye candy purposes only!

[tpweather]

Good Morning a nice roar of thunder this morning. Going back to last week the atmosphere is up to something and starting to see more precip than models are showing. This year for the most part it has been the opposite. Time for that morning coffee and look things over a bit and of course all eyes on the system Sunday/Monday and also the clipper system late Thursday into early Friday plus talk about the cold and how long the new pattern may stay around

[Bgoney]

Plenty of rumbles of thunder out this way also , although the heavier showers have missed so far here with light rain.

[tpweather]

Same here with the rain and it has been light as expected with heavier rains to the north. Clipper system late Thursday into early Friday is still on and at this point in time I would go with an inch possible in some areas but this is not a wide system by any means so some folks may miss out. Btw on New Years Day we could see some snow showers here and there to make it look winter like.

The Sunday/Monday system and models are still going back and forth with each run as expected this far out. We do look at several items though and one being the trough over the northeast this weekend and high pressure building in Greenland. This is a blocking pattern shaping up but exactly where and when can change a forecast. The southern plains are really not getting in on the cold over the next several days as the true arctic air will be after the early week system. So yes this allows the GOM on the western side to be open for business which is good but with the good we can also get enough warm air this far north to make the system very messy. The jet looks to be very strong so yes this can add dynamics to a developing system but also can push the storm through quickly as well. The dreaded southeast ridge does not look to play a part for us in this system as the two previous cold fronts will make it to the southeast coast and not enough time to boost up the warmth we sometimes get from the dreaded ridge.
Having cold air before the system is always nice and something we don't see that often plus cold air entering the system on the western edge.

With all that said still in a holding pattern. I believe all the signs are there for a nice system and yes the main low will no doubt travel through the Ohio Valley but where is so key locally. At this moment and again just an early call is we start to see some snow sometime later Sunday into Monday and should start out as snow and feel rather confident of precip type early on but the path of the storm will no doubt have a say on who if anybody has mixing issues as we head into Monday and then finish the storm with either some light snow or frz/drizzle that we see quite often with a departing system. Then we get cold and that part of the forecast seems likely and then we start looking at other pieces of energy

[Bgoney]

Excellent post Tim , ensembles the way to go for another couple days , even those are all over the place in the scenario gambit at this early stage . The snow maps look pretty but a deeper dive into the temp profiles as always shows a different story . Snow Totals contaminated with sleet/freezing rain as both EU/GFS show roughly a 6-10hr period of a mix , verbatim to the Oz run (especially EU) especially cvgland and south

[tron777]

Good morning all! TONS and I mean TONS to talk about on here. We are on the cusp of entering a big time wintry pattern that is conducive to snow, ice, rain, tons of cold air and an active jet stream. What more could a snow lover want? Actual results of course! So let's begin...

Tomorrow - A few snow showers and chilly in the mid 30s. No travel issues expected.

Later Thurs night into the day on Friday: Still expecting that little area of light snow and after seeing the overnight models, I still believe up to 1" is possible along with a few slick spots.

Then the potential winter storm for Sun afternoon thru the day on Monday, Jan 5-6th. My confidence continues to increase on an impactful system and I think we're getting close to starting a thread. Euro continues to be more moist and strong with the low track but also a colder solution. If it were to remain all snow it would be a 10-15" type system. However, 540 thicknesses on the model text data gets to 542 so I could see from the River on south, some of that snow falling as sleet. 850s are plenty cold so I don't see a freezing rain threat as of yet. But sleet cutting down on the snow totals is of a concern. Nice to see others bringing up these important points too. What we also know... CMC and GFS are not as strong as the Euro but they are falling in line on the track keeping the low near or S of us. I still do not see this low passing north of us due to the strong building -NAO block and if that Banana High is there. The potential is absolutely there for a crippler but at the same time, we've got to be mindful of the thermal profiles and strength of the low. We need a couple more days to hone in on this thing but I do like what I am seeing that is for sure.

Finally, the longer term continues to look cold and active with reinforcing shots of cold air thanks to clippers and around mid month, I think we could see another potential big ticket item as the pattern reloads again. Much to like right now if you're a snow and winter weather lover.

[tron777]

6Z Euro is still showing hammer time but it only goes out to 144 hours. Text data for me only goes out to 90. Thru Hour 90, I am still seeing a lot of sleet showing up in the data. Plenty of time to iron this out but one things for sure, the Euro has not backed off a high QPF event.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and great post!!! As many are aware I always look around the world to see what is taking place. What I have noticed much of the winter is the arctic regions not getting that cold compared to normal. Well with the PV in this latest episode getting strong there is some decent cold in Siberia with some temps -60 - -70. This is important if we get the cross polar flow into the USA. We are talking 20-30 degrees colder than most of the season and that cold is needed for us to really get cold later in January. Sure we still need the snow pack and that is lacking in the northern plains and upper mid-west and hopefully a few clippers up there will put down a few inches. Then Central plains and yes the Ohio Valley may get some snow on the ground over the next week and this really good news if we want temps below 0. Again the pattern is just starting to change and my guess some items will be a nice surprise and other not so much.

Having fresh cold air before a storm is a plus and that happens this weekend. Having cold air entering the system is going to happen as well and another plus for the Sunday/Monday system. Could we see a big bust and of course anything could happen but not seeing the southeast ridge giving us problems plus the cold air mass for next week should hold off long enough so this system keeps some latitude and not head south of here.

So 5-6 days out the system has plenty of potential and that is all you can ask imo. Hopefully by Friday or so we can start throwing out some decent forecasts for the bigger storm but before that some snow showers on Wednesday and the clipper later on Thursday and Friday. Though the clipper may not be a big deal in terms of snow it really is a big deal because it brings another shot of colder air for the weekend and this is great news as the bigger storm arrives. That is why I feel confident that the storm will start out as snow and then we watch and see exactly where the system tracks.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! I think we'll see highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the single digits and teens when the coldest of air gets here. Now, if we happen to get rocked Sunday and Monday then we can certainly start talking below zero overnight lows. That's thing with this pattern. Whatever we do get, it isn't going anywhere and we'll have more chances to continue building up the snow pack in the future. We haven't seen a set up like that since 2013-2014.

[tpweather]

No doubt Les it has been a long time and early -mid January is a great time for snow and cold that can last several weeks. So depending on snow cover over the central and eastern USA can keep the cold around longer than the normal cold outbreaks of 10-14 days.