tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 9:11 am
Great Post Les and I was going to post 12-18 inches for the month at CVG. As we know going to need one or two really big storms to get to that point but 6-10 inches is decent around here. I went that high because of my snowfall contest prediction lol
I was thinking more realistically, but I like how you're swinging for the fences!
I checked the MJO models just now and they seem to want to get us in phase 7 then die off in the neutral circle only to reemerge in Phase 1 with some decent amplitude. That wouldn't be a bad thing at all. Keep the MJO on the cold side or left hand side of the phase diagram and we will stay cold if not active too. Per the Aussies, as of 12/27 we were almost to Phase 7. I would suspect that we are there by now.
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 9:11 am
Great Post Les and I was going to post 12-18 inches for the month at CVG. As we know going to need one or two really big storms to get to that point but 6-10 inches is decent around here. I went that high because of my snowfall contest prediction lol
I was thinking more realistically, but I like how you're swinging for the fences!
I checked the MJO models just now and they seem to want to get us in phase 7 then die off in the neutral circle only to reemerge in Phase 1 with some decent amplitude. That wouldn't be a bad thing at all. Keep the MJO on the cold side or left hand side of the phase diagram and we will stay cold if not active too. Per the Aussies, as of 12/27 we were almost to Phase 7. I would suspect that we are there by now.
Nice about the mjo and if gets in phase 8 then 1 and goes into the cod that is not concerning. It looks like it goes into maybe phase 2 or 3 but that is towards the end of the month so if we can get into phase 1 and the mjo does what it did with phase 5 this month and keep it there a few days longer we should be in business. Again just because we get into phase 8 and 1 does not mean we have a great period of cold and snow but the chances no doubt go up quite a bit
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 9:11 am
Great Post Les and I was going to post 12-18 inches for the month at CVG. As we know going to need one or two really big storms to get to that point but 6-10 inches is decent around here. I went that high because of my snowfall contest prediction lol
I was thinking more realistically, but I like how you're swinging for the fences!
I checked the MJO models just now and they seem to want to get us in phase 7 then die off in the neutral circle only to reemerge in Phase 1 with some decent amplitude. That wouldn't be a bad thing at all. Keep the MJO on the cold side or left hand side of the phase diagram and we will stay cold if not active too. Per the Aussies, as of 12/27 we were almost to Phase 7. I would suspect that we are there by now.
Nice about the mjo and if gets in phase 8 then 1 and goes into the cod that is not concerning. It looks like it goes into maybe phase 2 or 3 but that is towards the end of the month so if we can get into phase 1 and the mjo does what it did with phase 5 this month and keep it there a few days longer we should be in business. Again just because we get into phase 8 and 1 does not mean we have a great period of cold and snow but the chances no doubt go up quite a bit
I think the cold pattern can last the first 2 perhaps even 3 weeks of January then a warm up late month. Some guidance keeps it going into early Feb then we warm up. Bottom line is we have a favorable period coming up with multiple windows of opportunity.
GFS and CMC both have some light snow on Friday, The GFS is still a kitchen sink system for the 5-6th. Then an an interesting set up with an amplifying trough and a wave along an arctic front for the 9-10th. Then the arctic hounds really get unleashed. The CMC has all snow for the 5-6th. Low is well north but the system is very weak so WAA isn't as strong since we're not dealing with a wound up low. GEFS has the low for the 5-6th tracking thru ILL and IN so that isn't good. Still though. Two model camps. Go with the stronger, further NW solution and have the kitchen sink, or the more suppressed look if the banana high to the north shows up.
Les you are correct and with the clipper on Friday which does not look bad for some accumulation this system will head southeast and finally die out. Good thing imo with the next system coming rather quickly the southeast ridge should not be that strong of a push or this far north. Again the CMC may be correct with a weaker system even though the GFS is not to strong but has more precip and we are on the border. Which way to go and wait for the Euro but I believe the CMC may be correct and really no southeast ridge to have the storm go more north than say the gfs shows.
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 12:26 pm
Les you are correct and with the clipper on Friday which does not look bad for some accumulation this system will head southeast and finally die out. Good thing imo with the next system coming rather quickly the southeast ridge should not be that strong of a push or this far north. Again the CMC may be correct with a weaker system even though the GFS is not to strong but has more precip and we are on the border. Which way to go and wait for the Euro but I believe the CMC may be correct and really no southeast ridge to have the storm go more north than say the gfs shows.
A stronger low, will tend to cut north and west versus a weaker low which tends to track more SE. We know this. Going into this set up, we need the banana high over S Canada / N Midwest / Lakes to stop it from cutting and keep it more suppressed to the south no matter how strong the low gets.
12Z Euro is definitely the weakest of all models with the weak little Fri wave. A few flakes maybe and that's about it on this run. For the 5-6th, the big high is there 1044 MB and it's enough south that from the Metro on north it's a good snow! The big high is key to stop it from cutting. Euro shows how to get it done.
More selected locations from the 12Z Euro for the 5-6th. If yours isn't there, tell me the closest 4 letter airport or station code and I can check. I have this for the NAM, GFS, and Euro runs when needed.
If you need a refresher with how to read the above data, see this thread for a complete break down. Thanks! We are about to get busy around here folks!
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 1:48 pm
If you need a refresher with how to read the above data, see this thread for a complete break down. Thanks! We are about to get busy around here folks!
I hope this isn’t at the end of papa polar bear s pole
IMG_2732.jpeg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 1:48 pm
If you need a refresher with how to read the above data, see this thread for a complete break down. Thanks! We are about to get busy around here folks!
I hope this isn’t at the end of papa polar bear s pole
IMG_2732.jpeg
If anything the EPS is even further south and colder then the Operational Euro. We'll see if it holds. LOL @ the 12Z UKMET. It's so weak and south that it's a swing and a miss and only some light snow for the KY / TN border. GFS maybe the warmer outlier??
EPS looks great at 500 MB for this system. A nice PNA ridge far to the west along the West Coast of North America with a 50/50 low off of Newfoundland along with a stout -NAO. Textbook southern slider. If that look upstairs is right, you shouldn't get a cutter with that look.
Good Afternoon and yes we will need are forecasting skills in terms of winter weather starting in a few days. Last season was so bad and sunny and I know folks like the sun but usually we get that when its really cold and last season sunny and mild in the winter sounds like Atlanta.
No way to make a decent prediction as the pattern is changing which is why you get wild swings. Once we get a pattern developed then models will do better imo. We do have 2 cold fronts coming in this week and these are not arctic blasts but are cold enough for winter weather rather far south. These first two fronts tend to dig but not so much in the southern plains and somewhat similar to December but the difference we should have the STJ in play which brings the chances of bigger systems. With the southern plains remaining milder we can bring some of that milder air over top of the cold ground and at first cold temps near the surface. This many times leads to a decent ice event somewhere. Also as the storm is trying to develop some even colder air is waiting in the wings and does that cold air get involved sooner or later early next week. Then after this system with the cold building further to the southwest do we see another system say late next week. Still several pieces of energy in the pacific and some may go over the top of the ridge forming off the west coast and some underneath. If we can happen to get two pieces to meet once again over the central sn southern plains then we could do well late next week. If the cold coming down next week is so strong then we can become very cold but on the drier side. These are just some of the options and want to see how the trough starts to dig out later this week before coming up with a decent forecast.
One item to take away is the NWS from the eastern Great Lakes area as they are posting winter storm warnings for the period late Wednesday through Sunday. Sure this tells me they expect many days of lake effect snow but this is with a couple of cold fronts and the nao getting more negative which will start to block systems and they move slower. No doubt next week the AO is expected to be really negative and that is a great sign for cold air but starting to see the NAO become more negative which is good but can be to good if its too negative which then becomes much better for the east coast.
The Euro is a beautiful piece of work for the Sunday/Monday storm and then it really gets cold and you can see the PV in the mainland USA. Yes it does suppress storms after early next week but again its a pattern in flux and though I expect a bigger push of cold further southwest it just depends how far west this goes. So yes cold is almost a 100p/c chance of happening starting Wednesday but snow is always one where you can do lousy in a bad pattern and get lucky in a good pattern. Clippers are usually not seen 10 days out so that is something we need to watch plus we talk about snow ratio of around 8-1 - 10-1 around here but if this kind of cold that is forecast you can move that up to at least 15-1 or even 20-1 and just a 1/10 of an inch of precip can bring in a couple of inches.
Excited about the upcoming pattern and no doubt and with the system on Friday getting a tad more excited we could see a little snow and then just holding off my excitement for the Sunday/Monday system at this time
Mid level ridging will traverse quickly east across the Ohio Valley
on Saturday ahead of a stronger mid level short wave moving out of
the Plains. An associated developing low pressure system will lift
northeast across the Ohio Valley and toward the Great Lakes region
Sunday, but there remains significant model differences in the
strength and timing of this low. For now will just allow for a
developing chance for snow through the day on Sunday. However, the
eventual ptype and amounts from this system will be dependent on the
exact track of the low. Daytime highs through the weekend will be in
the mid 20s to lower 30s.
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 1:48 pm
If you need a refresher with how to read the above data, see this thread for a complete break down. Thanks! We are about to get busy around here folks!
I hope this isn’t at the end of papa polar bear s pole
IMG_2732.jpeg
If anything the EPS is even further south and colder then the Operational Euro. We'll see if it holds. LOL @ the 12Z UKMET. It's so weak and south that it's a swing and a miss and only some light snow for the KY / TN border. GFS maybe the warmer outlier??
The Euro flashed that more southern track a couple runs ago , so definitely still on the table with that high placement on those runs. I like where we’re at at this point
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 1:48 pm
If you need a refresher with how to read the above data, see this thread for a complete break down. Thanks! We are about to get busy around here folks!
I hope this isn’t at the end of papa polar bear s pole
IMG_2732.jpeg
If anything the EPS is even further south and colder then the Operational Euro. We'll see if it holds. LOL @ the 12Z UKMET. It's so weak and south that it's a swing and a miss and only some light snow for the KY / TN border. GFS maybe the warmer outlier??
The Euro flashed that more southern track a couple runs ago , so definitely still on the table with that high placement on those runs. I like where we’re at at this point
I do too. If the blocking is real then a cutter like the GFS and CMC have should not occur. Precip type can be an issue with a strong low regardless but I just have a hard time buying the NW track solution.
That’s seems to be the new 12z trend to at least take it south of CVGland instead of coming upriver
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Tim and Bgoney... I agree with you both. I think we need to be leery of precip type issues esp in our S counties, but also the trends today were good. UKMET and CMC seem to be too weak with the low but the GFS def too strong. OP Euro was probably overdone a bit too IMO. I don't think this system will be a big dog but a moderate event is absolutely on the table. Certainly shovel / plow worthy is also on the table for somebody.
