December 2024 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

CVG / DAY / CMH all got to 58 today.

[airwolf76]

The Euro Weeklies continue to look cold and stormy for early to mid January. A nice -EPO block with a +PNA and -NAO is what is being shown. As usual, we shall see but I still have hope down the road. The MJO still needs to be watched and it would argue against what the Euro Weeklies are showing since I do not believe that we see Phase 8 unfortunately by early January. I think it'll be in Phase 7 or the COD.

I was kind of looking at stuff and watched a few videos and it looks like a weak to moderate phase 7 or so by early January along with other indencies in our favor especially the PNA. as of how things look now I dont see much happening the rest of this month ( as far as any big snowstorm that is ) but perhaps we get something brewing by the second week of Jan or so. maybe a Jan 96' type pattern coming ? lol

[tron777]

The Euro Weeklies continue to look cold and stormy for early to mid January. A nice -EPO block with a +PNA and -NAO is what is being shown. As usual, we shall see but I still have hope down the road. The MJO still needs to be watched and it would argue against what the Euro Weeklies are showing since I do not believe that we see Phase 8 unfortunately by early January. I think it'll be in Phase 7 or the COD.

I was kind of looking at stuff and watched a few videos and it looks like a weak to moderate phase 7 or so by early January along with other indencies in our favor especially the PNA. as of how things look now I dont see much happening the rest of this month ( as far as any big snowstorm that is ) but perhaps we get something brewing by the second week of Jan or so. maybe a Jan 96' type pattern coming ? lol

Sign me up!

[tron777]

Good morning all! A nice day on tap as we briefly dry out. One more wet day to go this week, then we cool down and see some snow showers Fri, perhaps a flurry or two on Sat. Then we warm up by Christmas with rain showers and 50 degrees possible on Christmas Day. Between Christmas and NY's looks warm. Some models have us in the mid 60s for highs! Severe wx might become an option if this is correct.

[tpweather]

Good morning all! A nice day on tap as we briefly dry out. One more wet day to go this week, then we cool down and see some snow showers Fri, perhaps a flurry or two on Sat. Then we warm up by Christmas with rain showers and 50 degrees possible on Christmas Day. Between Christmas and NY's looks warm. Some models have us in the mid 60s for highs! Severe wx might become an option if this is correct.

Great Post Les and no doubt we can see some 60's with no snow cover to melt and systems between Christmas and the New Year staying northwest of us for the most part. December itself has a chance to become a month that ends up close to normal in regards to temps and maybe precip though very few days that are normal. The Mjo seems to change everyday and model having problems in trying to figure out the progressive pattern. Seen it where it goes into phase 6 and 7 and other straight into the cod and heading toward phase 1. I believe it makes more sense that we are in phase 5 but by next week into phase 6 and heading to phase 7. Then what happens in early January. Next week is a very warm pattern across much of the USA and when I see this happen in such a large area many times the atmosphere will say this is not balancing out the earth and will almost flip from very warm to very cold in a short period of time. Will this happen in early January and just need to watch several items after Christmas.

Chances for a white Christmas are very slim and though with a system early next week and the warm push over the cold layer at the surface I could see a small chance that we could see a touch of snow early Christmas Eve but short-lived as warmer air should take over. Maybe well northeast of us has a better shot since it will take the warm air somewhat longer to invade that area but we are talking northeast Ohio.

[tpweather]

Halfway through the month and we sitting about 2.5 degrees below normal though by next Monday we should be closer to 4 or 5 degrees below only to have that taken care of by the upcoming warm stretch that should get us back to normal. Rainfall we are right on target with normal rainfall and that will probably be the final outcome for the month unless we get one big rain system the last few days of the month. Snowfall we are the average but does not look like much in the way of accumulation the rest of the month so we will no probably end up below normal for the month though for the season we should be near normal.

[tron777]

As of 12/14, we are still in Phase 5 per the Aussies and at a decent amplitude. Most models get us into Phase 7 at a low amplitude by the end of the year minus the GEFS. It continues to show a more vigorous MJO pulse which we know is most likely wrong. Based on this and the Ensemble guidance that now takes us until early January, my thoughts are currently this:

Between Christmas and NY'S: Mild and active, watch for possible severe wx maker around the 30th or so (give or take). Then after the new year, we should begin to turn colder, however, I expect the mean trough to be centered more in the Plains versus New England. We would run the risk of a cutter, but with proper timing and wave spacing, an Apps runner track is also very possible. With the trough centered more over the Plains, I would expect a warm West Coast and East Coast with the cold centered more in the N Plains and Midwest. That is basically a classic Phase 7 MJO response in other words. It's not a shut the blinds pattern for snow lovers, some luck is needed but it's not Phase 8, 1, and 2 either.

[tpweather]

Another great post Les. We are on the same page and no doubt the waters have cooled some so more like a La Nina in that respect but normally you don't have the really strong winds from the east pacific all the way across the ocean into the west coast of the USA. So no doubt some mixed items on the weather board and that is why just predicting longer term based on what a La Nina or a El Nino normally brings is never a good ideal and you must looks at other areas of the world and make sure its really that pattern or a mix which many times is the case. One key item I am looking at over the next few weeks is the water temps off the northwest USA coast and south of Alaska. Will the stormy pattern out there cool the waters or will the warm waters in the pacific shift even further east towards those areas.

[tron777]

Another great post Les. We are on the same page and no doubt the waters have cooled some so more like a La Nina in that respect but normally you don't have the really strong winds from the east pacific all the way across the ocean into the west coast of the USA. So no doubt some mixed items on the weather board and that is why just predicting longer term based on what a La Nina or a El Nino normally brings is never a good ideal and you must looks at other areas of the world and make sure its really that pattern or a mix which many times is the case. One key item I am looking at over the next few weeks is the water temps off the northwest USA coast and south of Alaska. Will the stormy pattern out there cool the waters or will the warm waters in the pacific shift even further east towards those areas.

The only fly in the ointment that I am seeing is the La Nina. For a while, it didn't look like it was going to get going. Now, it is certainly trying its best to come in at a weak status. Usually, we are seeing the peak of ENSO right now then it usually weakens late Dec or in January. For this winter, the Nina is still developing as we speak. One thing that I do find interesting is the -PDO. I do think that it is weakening. Slowly, but weakening as waters cool around Japan and the warmer water has been moving more to the east towards the Gulf of Alaska and the West Coast of North America. It'd like to continue seeing that as a trend. IMO that may bode well for later in the winter like mid Jan to mid Feb range or something. It won't hurt, we know that much!

[tron777]

Christmas Climo from the boys, including White Christmas chances in a typical year. You can see CMH's and DAY's stats also. The below link will default to CVG.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/cvg_christmas_climo

[tpweather]

Les I do believe the waters are cooling off in Japan. Two items that I believe has caused the long term way above normal ocean waters in that area. I truly believe underwater volcano's have been very busy and not sure how much information we can get but that makes sense in terms of all that heat rising but only to the surface of the ocean. Volcano's above ground will throw ash and smoke in the air will sometimes block the sun rays and this can be a temporary cool down in certain areas. The second item is the amount of typhoons in the pacific. This season is the first one in several years that had at least a normal amount of storms. They went 3-5 years with below normal storms and a few years off the charts below normal. We know these storms are big in patters across the world. Hopefully with have some folks that are much smarter than me that are looking at those two items and sure there is but as we know it can take years of watching,evaluating items like this so maybe 2030 we have some information lol.

[Bgoney]

Great discussion guys not much to add from me as unfortunately in agreement. The beginning of the new year should bring colder temps but that just means closer to normal for the OV. Flashes of tall ridging along the PAC NW at the end of ensembles but that will need to last quite a few days for it to get real cold deeper into the lower 48 and that will of course depend on where the dead horse eventually progresses

[tpweather]

Great post from all this morning. I do like the stormier weather coming into the west coast and hopefully in time these make it across the mountains and we get a few good snowstorms for the northern plains and hopefully the central plains over time. We still need that highway for the cold air to ride on and snow cover is one that really can help get the cold air further south without warming up too much especially in January. We will see but this year getting warm for a period of time is a big key in getting a winter with more chances of snow. Nothing like last year at all which imo was the worst winter since the early 70's though I am sure there were a few mixed in there somewhere but probably to busy to notice

[Bgoney]

The EU 850wind anomalies show around Christmas time , bothe easterl and westerlies weaken on either side of 5/6 phase . So at least the data matches the output (position) from the EU. Eastward progression into 7 at what amplitude and how far is to far out to have any confidence in what may progress

IMG_2860.jpeg

[tron777]

[dce]

The Friday system is starting to like a little more interesting for the I-70 posters.

[tron777]

It is trending south which I expected just not quite far enough for Cincinnati. That would be nice to see you guys to the north get a nice covering out of it. Good luck! We should see Sat's weak little guy do the same thing so a few more flakes I have in the forecast also.

[dce]

It is trending south which I expected just not quite far enough for Cincinnati. That would be nice to see you guys to the north get a nice covering out of it. Good luck! We should see Sat's weak little guy do the same thing so a few more flakes I have in the forecast also.

Who knows? It's still 3 days away. It'll still probably trend North or trend South.

[tron777]

It is trending south which I expected just not quite far enough for Cincinnati. That would be nice to see you guys to the north get a nice covering out of it. Good luck! We should see Sat's weak little guy do the same thing so a few more flakes I have in the forecast also.

Who knows? It's still 3 days away. It'll still probably trend North or trend South.

True. My call is south. 12Z Canadian is probably the furthest south of all models and that model actually doesn't do too bad with NW flow / clipper patterns.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and a nice sunny day. Wednesday wet and then a period of cold weather that looks to warm up just in time for the Christmas Holiday. Concerning snow showers and later Friday looks like we could see a few and the problem still a progressive pattern so year we may see a few snow showers but just a few hours possible. A clipper Saturday may bring another chance and models find the system and then lose it the next run but my guess there is some energy around but models having problems pinpointing this far away. No doubt we will be cold enough for snow both days so yes we could see a dusting or so to make the season festive. Bad news the period from Christmas to the New Year looks mild and probably become more active towards the New Year. Of course that should be in the form of rain at first and then we see where the pattern shapes up for January 2025. We will not have an official La Nina this season but that does not mean we won't have La Nina conditions at times. We got a little over 2 months but then the waters warmed enough that getting 3 months in a row did not happen. Again we can call it whatever like a near miss La Nina or any other name you want to give it but we just need to look at what the pattern is showing and go from there. Yes the PV is finally gaining some strength and at the moment that looks to be in northwest Canada and parts of western Siberia. This is a change from the weak PV that has had feeders down to the lower latitudes this season but many of those were directed towards eastern Canada and eastern USA. Does the PV become a problem where it wants to remain strong for an extended period. At the moment I don't see that happening but the key is when it weakens where does the cold head towards.

[tron777]

55 here today! A nice day in December, I guess. I want my snow!

Anyway... Tim's post looks good as does everyone else's. Most are in sync with our thoughts around here in the short, medium, and longer term periods. We watch and wait. We do that a lot around here but when you are on the hunt for snow, it's like fishing or deer hunting... you must have PATIENCE and in our case for snow lovers, A LOT of it!

[tron777]

Nice look from the Euro Ens today as we head into 2025. It's not arctic air since we are coming off of a warm pattern but it won't take long for it to get cold if that look can hold for a while. We'll see. I like that the trough is centered further west over the OV versus New England like it has been. Ridge has been over the Rockies of Idaho and MT but now it would be over CA, Ore, and Washington. Even a tad further west wouldn't be bad either/ Anyway, a more favorable storm track if the above is correct. 2 weeks out so we'll see how this morphs and changes when we get closer. Looks mild Christmas - 30-31st or so at this point.

eps_z500aNorm_namer_61.png

I did check the GEFS and it shows the same sort of idea with a few tweaks. Interesting MJO forecasts today. The forecast by most models is for Phase 7 1st half of January as it stalls in that phase for a while. GEFS, CFS, and the Euro makes it a run at it... have a possible Phase 8 for 2nd half of January. Obviously HUGE grain of salt with this. Probably helps explain the EPS's improvement too.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

[dce]

Negative Enso and Neutral Enso for January phase 7. Since we are straddling the fence between a neutral Enso and a weak La Nina, some sort of a combination of these 2 maps would not be too bad for the Eastern US.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 54, DAY 51 and CMH 52 today.

[tron777]

Good morning! Rain has begun across the area with a wet and chilly morning ahead (low 40s). We will be dry this afternoon with similar temps, Dry and 40 for Thurs then snow showers Fri and in the 30s. Low 30s Sat with a flurry or two possible, cold and dry Sunday. Then we warm up and see some light rain on Christmas Eve / Christmas Day time period with temps in the 40s for Christmas Eve and around 50 for Day.

Then, we get 2 rain makers, maybe 3 between Christmas and NY's with a mild and wet period occurring. Then, we will time the return of the cold for Jan 2025. That's the deal folks for the next 2 weeks.