December 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

No doubt a nice cold shot for early Dec and especially that far south. Getting colder in eastern Canada is a big reason. Normally it takes a little longer for the eastern part of Canada to get in the deep freeze compared to the remainder of the country but this season so far is different as we know with the cold here in early Dec. My problem with the NWS is how they just throw their normal extended forecast and this season they expected a La Nina so just throw out the same one we have been using forever. First not sure we get to the La Nina but even so their are more factors involved and yes I understand they are trying to cover a huge area but they never change even if the weather is exact opposite of what they forecast. That part of the government is probably one area we could use more funding and this could help with farmers and other business that use the weather in their operations. I am not a big government spending person but some areas do need it but if so spend it wisely. Lol about spending is wisely

[Bgoney]

No surprises from the latest MJO forecast. The slowdown in 4-5 continues for 8-10 days or so. After that is up in the air , although trends are on the downside.

IMG_2768.png

IMG_2767.png

[tpweather]

I agree 100p/c and when I sent out my winter weather forecast for the neighbors I mentioned the cold would return after Christmas but most likely closer to the New Year. Will continue to watch storminess in the far east and any tropical activity in that part of the world. This season has finally got closer in terms of tropical systems in that area which has been way behind for several years. All these things combine to figure out the puzzle that Mother Nature lays out for us.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY reached 33 and CMH 34 today.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 46, DAY 43 and CMH 41 today.

[Bgoney]

Another freeze watch for Florida

IMG_2778.jpeg

IMG_2780.jpeg

[Bgoney]

Outcome for tonight through Wednesday remains the same (the cold chasing the moisture) with rain ending as some vigorous snow showers . Another shot of cold air similar to what we just had only not lasting as long . Plenty of model waffling in the long range as far as temp regime . Still going with near to slightly above normal average for the 16th - 22 period

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice milder day in store. Rain on the way and most folks near 1/2 inch. I agree with Bgoney with the cold chasing the precip and very common in early Dec. I still believe a nice warm up starting next weekend though some of the models keep it colder and of course with the coldest of air still on this side of the planet and with all the snow cover in much of Canada cold can be tough to lift out. After the warm up when does the cold return and models usually tend to rush the cold back so I have it most likely returning close to the New Year. Over the next few weeks sure we can get a shot of colder air for a day or two behind a front but still believe above normal temps the way to go. During the next few weeks we need the arctic to reload and that should happen but what makes this season different imo is the coldest of temps even in the arctic is on this side of the planet. This does two things imo and one getting the cross polar flow becomes easier and sometimes quicker to make it into the lower 48 which may be one reason some of the models bring back the cold sooner later this month but the second reason is one I have talked about for 1-2 months and that is the cold in eastern Canada. Having that cold along with a cross polar flow at times will keep the cold in for a longer period.

Saying that my main concern is still the central and northern plains in terms of snow on the ground. We know its important as cold air masses that flow over bare ground can warm quickly compared to a snow covered ground. I still believe this winter the battle is more between the cold in eastern Canada and the southern and central plains as I expect the plains to be rather mild to warm at times and this should finally lead to a much stormier pattern as well. Still believe clippers will be above normal or at least more than the last several years. So I believe January quite cold and higher than normal chances for snow and this may last until early Feb when I believe we have a really mild last 3 weeks or so of Feb which is fine by me if we can have a nice January.

[Bgoney]

MJO musings. The slowdown continues in phases 4/5 which the models from a week previous in forecasting were terrible, some much more than others. The easterly winds and westerly wind battle at 850mb anomalies was well modeled so not sure why models went opposite of that reality. In the graphs below , the blues represent easterly winds and reds westerly, (along the equator) where they meet is the MJO location, you can see the phases on the EU graph. When the two colors are vertical it means a slowdown in eastward movement of MJO. (4/5). I know there’s more parameters in how the MJO is monitored, (200mb vorticity, OLR) but this is my way of simplifying it for my brain

IMG_2769.jpeg

IMG_2785.gif

IMG_2784.png

IMG_2783.png

[tpweather]

When Les gets back and can look at the gfs and look at the Christmas Eve map lol.

[tron777]

When Les gets back and can look at the gfs and look at the Christmas Eve map lol.

I'm glad I got the last leaf griding in! Just finished as it got dark. Some take out Chinese is almost here for dinner. I will talk weather tomorrow at work guys.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and a nice mild day and we have 3 different chances for precip this week. 1st and that is overnight into Monday with a good dose of rain and most folks should get near the 1/2 inch mark. The front comes through here and sets up near the app mountains Another low looks to form on this front Tuesday. At first not enough cold air in here plus much of the moisture looks to be east of us and this storm winds up more on Wednesday giving folks well east of here some decent snows. Later Wednesday and into early Thursday though we should be able to tap into some decent snow showers though and yes we know how this works and if you get under one a quick dusting to half inch in a short amount of time which in turn can cause slick roads especially after 3pm as we start losing the sun and especially overnight but then we tend to lose the moisture.

Then we stay cold for a few days but warm up nicely and then leading up to Christmas I expect temps to be well above normal and starting to become more active as well in terms of rainfall. When does the cold return and I still believe towards the New Year and I know some models show sooner and some met's going earlier as well and I can see where there is a chance for the earlier arrival just because of the coldest temps still remain on this side of the planet and with the snow cover in Canada much easier to move the cold. Going to stick with the later revival and hopefully this bring us truly a January that we have not seen in many many years.

[Bgoney]

IMG_2791.gif

IMG_2790.jpeg

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 58, DAY 57 and CMH 55 today.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[airwolf76]

looks like a transitional period coming up for the next 2 weeks or so. maybe something interesting for around the 20th and beyond from what I can see.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Let's all begin our day with wishing Trev, our Fearless Leader a very happy birthday!

[tron777]

A mild day on tap in the 50s with showers continuing esp this morning. 0.43" so far at CVG as of 4am. You guys have the forecast covered nicely! Rainy today and a bit more tomorrow as temps begin to drop. Cold Wed - Thurs with some snow showers on Wed. Then we warm up with another shot of rain this weekend.

Thanks to the MJO slowing down as Bgoney has been keeping us UpToDate on, we aren't seeing bitterly cold air, but we aren't torching all that much either. Pattern continues to look active for the next couple of weeks too. Rain... or rain ending as flakes looks to be most set up's for a while.

[Bgoney]

IMG_2792.jpeg

IMG_2793.gif

[tpweather]

Happy Birthday Trev and thanks for everything you do with this forum. Welcome back Les and hope you had a wonderful trip. Many items to look over and yes I believe a milder spell over the next few weeks but like you mentioned probably won't be a blowtorch and we will go over why that is the case.

[tpweather]

Before I really start looking at the upcoming week what the heck is going on with the gfs. Always had a bias with moving systems to quickly and we can adjust for that but the amount of warmth it shows across the country is laughable. Very seldom will you see the entire country above or below normal as just to much land. That model has been the one with the blow torch and though the Euro is not perfect it has done better over the past several weeks and even the CMC which has a cold bias has been better in the longer term forecasts.

[tron777]

Happy Birthday Trev and thanks for everything you do with this forum. Welcome back Les and hope you had a wonderful trip. Many items to look over and yes I believe a milder spell over the next few weeks but like you mentioned probably won't be a blowtorch and we will go over why that is the case.

The MJO is weak in amplitude, plus it will be active. I think for those two reasons. Yes, some 50s most certainly like today but I don't think we'll see weeks on end. There will be cool shots mixed in like what we will see later this week.

[tron777]

Before I really start looking at the upcoming week what the heck is going on with the gfs. Always had a bias with moving systems to quickly and we can adjust for that but the amount of warmth it shows across the country is laughable. Very seldom will you see the entire country above or below normal as just to much land. That model has been the one with the blow torch and though the Euro is not perfect it has done better over the past several weeks and even the CMC which has a cold bias has been better in the longer term forecasts.

GEFS has also been showing relentless warmth where the other Ensembles are trying to get us looking more favorable towards the end of their respective runs. Definitely something odd going on with the GFS model family as of late.

[tpweather]

Happy Birthday Trev and thanks for everything you do with this forum. Welcome back Les and hope you had a wonderful trip. Many items to look over and yes I believe a milder spell over the next few weeks but like you mentioned probably won't be a blowtorch and we will go over why that is the case.

The MJO is weak in amplitude, plus it will be active. I think for those two reasons. Yes, some 50s most certainly like today but I don't think we'll see weeks on end. There will be cool shots mixed in like what we will see later this week.

Les we are on the same page and yes the mjo amplitude is one key as you mentioned. Very little snow cover to the west and northwest though will make warm ups quicker. Still having the coldest of arctic air on this side of the planet plus with some reloading in the arctic it looks like the coldest of air wants to remain here maybe trough January. The PNA looks to remain on the positive side so that keeps us from a blowtorch and though the AO and NAO look to go positive next weekend and early next week it seems in the longer term more of a neutral sign for those two tellies.

So yes upper 40's to mid 50's will probably be seen with the warm ups a few days after a cold front but it seems we will be busy enough across the country that fronts will arrive every 3-5 days with hopefully some rainfall and temps dropping for a day or two after the front. The pattern is not one for a ton of snow but hopefully we can change that once we get nearer the New Year.

[tpweather]

I was watching one of Travis Roberts reports last night and he mentioned that the mjo later this month would be in phase 6 and 7 later this month but he called these cold phases of the mjo. Not sure why he said this or maybe just a mistake that we all make once in awhile. He is fine but I listen to Brian as I believe he is one of the best around plus his forecasts seems to agree with ours on here lol. I love making a forecast and then listen to Brian because if it differs than what I am seeing this makes go back to square one and see what the heck I am missing.