December 2024 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

47 at CVG today, same here. That is also our current temp as we await the arctic front.

[Bgoney]

Record cold for the SE coast. Mid 20s in north Florida this morning

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[Phr0z3n]

Pro mets see the same things from the same data available that we see . We know the MJO has a big say in the winter air mass location and availability. That will never change. To soon to say if the slowdown of its progression leads to a collapse into the COD or it can eventually recover and move into a traditional eastward stroll through the PAC

I don't know yet either to be honest and I'm not making a call either way. Hopefully, these chain of events do not ramp up the Pacific Jet.

I hope it doesn’t collapse in the warm phases, I’d rather it have some giddy-up through those, swallow a warm period and then get to Holy Grail phases as quickly as possible.

For sure and that is the concern that it collapses in the warm phases. It is currently in Phase 4 per the Aussies where it has put on the brakes. Phase 4 is a torch along with above normal rainfall. Modeling shows this stalling though to be a temporary thing and we're in phase 6 by the 17th, We watch and wait as usual.

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I have the MJO going phase 5 very soon which translates to this

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Phase 6 looks like this.

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MJO influence is not as dominant as the first wave but still taking a toll on upper ocean heat content anomalies.

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I’m thinking La Niña might be done. As you can see the warmer waters are starting to propagate.
I also wanted to point out the artic zonal winds have reversed and I do believe a very strong polar vortex is starting to split.

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I do think there will be somewhat of a warmup but in the extended period I do think we’ll be in a choppy pattern that could produce either cold rain or snowstorms.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 47 and both DAY / CMH 45 on Wed.

[tron777]

That wind sure has been howling all night and continues this morning. Good morning to you all! Also got a car topper from the arctic front as well. I'll have much more to say later when I get to work, but for now... to kind of piggy back off of Phr0z3n's wonderful post... DT has a very nice (and long) This Week in Weather talking about the rest of the winter and what he thinks may happen. He's going all in and is expecting the MJO to be in phase 7 to end the year and Phases 8 and 1 in January. Could see a +TNH pattern which could mean a 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 type of winter with severe cold and snow. If he's right then we will soon be happy. If he's wrong then he will lose some credibility. At any rate, even a blend would be nice for us.

[Bgoney]

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[Bgoney]

Like we mentioned yesterday, anything but collapsing in the warm phases. Right now LaNina , hopefully is peaking, SOI is cranking. Quite the battle in the Maritimes between westerlies and easterlies in the pacific. Models have a well known struggle when it comes to MJO forecasting through the Maritimes (more so than other phases) , so we need to cautious . We watch!

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[tron777]

My current thoughts are that we get a couple of weeks break from the current cold pattern. Then, sometime after the 20th (I am hoping in time for Christmas) we'll get it to come back somewhat for snow chances with early January having some nice potential. We'll have to wait and see on that of course as we get closer to Christmas.

For now... we will slowly pull out of this pattern over the weekend and get a nice rain maker for Monday to rinse the salt off the cars and roads. The follow up system after that around Wed And Thurs of next week is still not off the table, but I will admit that it might be losing traction. Still a tad early to know for sure what'll happen. I'm still in that keep one eye open mode on that one.

[tron777]

I don't know if this is right or not, but supposedly, CVG had a peak wind gust of 59 mph around 12:30am last night! Second highest I found was 47 mph which is very believable. That one I do think is valid.

[Bgoney]

Powers been out here since 1

[tron777]

Powers been out here since 1

Dang! Hope that they can get you back up and running soon! I'm sure your house is cooing off quickly with the cold temps and wind.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and was a windy night and a few gusts rattle the house but was not an all night wind fest here. Bgoney might not have the same reaction especially losing power.

Les I agree with your post and expecting the milder temps starting Sunday and lasting imo through at least the 22nd or so and maybe longer. The period say between the 14th-21st could be very mild and talking temps staying in the 50's for many of those days. We saw this coming and the timing never easy weeks in advance but I believe we did well on this forecast.

Several things we look at and one is the mjo. Phase 4 or 5 at the moment and sort of stalled with this shot of cold but should start to move again and by late next week nearing if not in phase 6 which is very warm phase. In recent year we have seen this play out and for the mjo to die out and return to phase 4 which in January is a warmer phase as is 5 and 6. I don't believe it happens this season and did watch DT's video and gave us some great longer term outlooks but what catches my eye more than anything and yes wait for it wait for it and that is the eastern Pacific around Japan,eastern China look to get cold later next week. This place has been so warm for so long the amount of times its cooled down is probably easy to count on 1 hand in recent years. When this happens this usually gets the jet active and several storms in the eastern pacific. This is a pattern that usually will tend to make it here in say 10-14 days after it starts there so if say it starts next week on the 12th then somewhere between the 22nd and 25th bigger changes occur here. Again timing is tricky so this could be more towards the New Year but I like what I see.

Next the PV and not only do the models start to show warming but a big key imo this late fall/early winter season has been the coldest compared to normal has been on this side of the planet and not in Siberia. That is why imo what happens in November instead of October is more important for forecasting the upcoming winter. This also imo is really going to make eastern Canada really cold this winter and this will add to the cold we get and keep it locked in place longer. January looks great imo and probably very early February then I believe the remainder of February turns milder.

Still believe overall Dec-Feb will turn out slightly milder and that is because of mid and late Dec and much of February turns out very mild but believe very late Dec through much of January cold. Still believe snowfall slightly above normal as well.

Can this bust and of course it can but have felt good about what I see with the pattern so far this late fall and early winter season. Still want to see more snow cover later this month in the northern and central plains but with the PV weakening later this month and if it sets up shop where I expect it to we can still have a nice and cold January though to cold can become cold and dry but will worry about that as we get towards the new year.

[tron777]

Great post Tim! At the very end of the ensemble runs from overnight... you an see some ridging trying to rebuild over AK. Still a very mild look with ridging over most of the CONUS, but that might be a good sign that we are seeing over the Pacific for the colder changes to return around Christmas time or so. We would of course need to see this over multiple runs as well as getting closer a time goes on instead of can kicking.

[tpweather]

Great post Tim! At the very end of the ensemble runs from overnight... you an see some ridging trying to rebuild over AK. Still a very mild look with ridging over most of the CONUS, but that might be a good sign that we are seeing over the Pacific for the colder changes to return around Christmas time or so. We would of course need to see this over multiple runs as well as getting closer a time goes on instead of can kicking.

Les you keep me posted on the models and I will try and figure out the pattern. If we use the strengths that everyone has on this forum we tend to put out a good forecast and sure sometimes we disagree but those are needed for learning purposes and make everyone better imo.

[tron777]

Great post Tim! At the very end of the ensemble runs from overnight... you an see some ridging trying to rebuild over AK. Still a very mild look with ridging over most of the CONUS, but that might be a good sign that we are seeing over the Pacific for the colder changes to return around Christmas time or so. We would of course need to see this over multiple runs as well as getting closer a time goes on instead of can kicking.

Les you keep me posted on the models and I will try and figure out the pattern. If we use the strengths that everyone has on this forum we tend to put out a good forecast and sure sometimes we disagree but those are needed for learning purposes and make everyone better imo.

I think we maybe in for some fun around or just shortly after Christmas. We'll see how it goes but the signals are definitely there. I just watched DT's video and that is some really good supporting evidence! Also, check out Phr0z3n's post if you have not already done so.

[tron777]

Down to 16 as of 8am at CVG with a wind chill of 1 above zero.

[cloudy72]

Good morning All!!

No snow here in my hood but very brisk and temp down to 17 degrees with wind chills in the single digits.

DAY gusted to 60 mph just before midnight last night and also saw a couple 55-60 mph gusts in the Columbus area.

[tron777]

Good morning All!!

No snow here in my hood but very brisk and temp down to 17 degrees with wind chills in the single digits.

DAY gusted to 60 mph just before midnight last night and also saw a couple 55-60 mph gusts in the Columbus area.

Good morning Mike and thanks for that info about the wind gusts. That leads me to believe that CVG gusting to 59 at 12:30am was probably legit. Wow! I busted bad since I only had winds to 40 mph in my forecast.

[Mjr]

Powers been out here since 1

Power outages aren’t fun
Hang in there

[Bgoney]

Powers been out here since 1

Power outages aren’t fun
Hang in there

Came back on about 8am . In-house temp got down to 60 , not to bad . Mid 50s is when it starts to feel chilly

[Bgoney]

Another freeze watch in FL

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[Bgoney]

Last year’s to this year’s current snow cover comparison. A marked improvement in the Canadian prairie’s. Not so much elsewhere to our NW.

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[MVWxObserver]

One of those 55 to 60 mph gusts last night turned over my filled recyclables tub but thankfully no contents got away as I had a bag of trash atop the tub and so it kept things from getting further out of control. I went out and righted the tub and placed the bag back on top and then a second bag of trash against a side of the tub on the ground for reinforcement stability and so that helped for no recurrence incident the rest of the night.

Another neighbor's recyclables tub lost its contents somewhere and so the empty tub ended up in a side yard of another neighbor.

Last night's ground "blizzard" so to say reminded somewhat of the pre-Christmas 2022 event but of course not anywhere near the amount of snow.

Currently 14 here in G'ville and progged for around 25 today.

Glad its back on, Bgoney!

[tron777]

I understand that we want to see more snow cover to our NW over the northern and Central plains. Tim has been beating that idea like a drum and he's right. However, I like seeing Canada covered so as long as we see that, we know the cold air won't be too far away. Nothing is ever perfect in weather so we take whatever positivity that we can get.