November 2024 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

A cold one for Bengals fans , brrrr. I’ll be sitting by the fire thank you. Good thing about the possibility for snow Saturday night is track still tbd. The bad thing is I don’t know if it can shift any more north and if anything, a more south shift would be easier with the cold push

[tron777]

Good morning all! We are in the upper 30s to around 40 this morning. Last day of work / school for many this week and the biggest travel day of the year is also today. If you are traveling today, leave early before the rain comes in later today. It should arrive om that 4-6 pm range IMO. Rain is likely this evening and tonight. Another 0.25 to 0.50" possible for rainfall amounts. Again a few flakes possible as it all ends.

I still think some slushy snow will occur tonight in our northern counties N of I-70. A slushy 1-2" on grass., car tops, etc I still think is doable. If we have anyone N of I-70 please post and let us know. Thanks!

For the Sat night clipper, I am keeping a chance of light snow in the forecast for Cincy on south, Overnight GFS and Euro are now a swing and a miss. I ama waiting to see what the ho-res guidance does once we get a little bit closer to make any changes there. Highs in the 40s today, low 40s tomorrow, and in the 30s thereafter. We may not get out of the 20s on Sunday! Lows in the teens and 20s thru the period.

[Bgoney]

If you want to read some fun AFDs check out some of the LES locations, those guys are pumped up. Feet of snow in some areas expected. Who’s ready for a snow chase?

[tron777]

If you want to read some fun AFDs check out some of the LES locations, those guys are pumped up. Feet of snow in some areas expected. Who’s ready for a snow chase?

For CLE, if Jim Sullivan is on duty, I'm sure it's a doozy! BUF also has some good ones too.

[tron777]

[tron777]

[tron777]

12Z GFS looked a little better for the Sat night clipper.

[Bgoney]

Got through Thanksgiving without a hard freeze, not uncommon these days. Rose bushes around the area blooming pretty good still .

Combining Sept, Oct and currently in Nov. sitting at number one warmest and with only 2 days of below normal temps to go , won’t make to much difference in a memorable stretch of warmth

IMG_2688.jpeg

[MVWxObserver]

If you want to read some fun AFDs check out some of the LES locations, those guys are pumped up. Feet of snow in some areas expected. Who’s ready for a snow chase?

For CLE, if Jim Sullivan is on duty, I'm sure it's a doozy! BUF also has some good ones too.

Will make for an interesting SNF game to see how the 49'ers fare in a snowstorm! GO BILLS!

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... n=-78.8597

Saturday
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night
Snow. Low around 25. West wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday
Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and some rain especially to the north and west breaking out. The forecast still looks on target and I know we talked about this system and the clippers but also on Friday we could see a few snow showers from the lakes make it this far south. With colder air in place this could cause a few slick spots in places and just like showers in the summer they will be hit and miss but really the biggest problems would be visibility for a short period of time. Again these snow showers are more likely north and northeast of us but with a nice flow off the lakes I could see a few making it into the local area. This may happen again later Sunday and Monday as well. The lakes are warm and the flow will be quite strong and by Sunday and Monday the ground will have got even colder to allow better chances for a few of these snow showers to accumulate a little though most of the time 1/2 is usually tops but that is all it takes around here to cause some accidents.

[dce]

Personally, I like the looks of this radar. It looks as if bright banding is occurring over the Dayton area. The radar returns just have that look to them. That tells me there is cold air in the upper levels where the precip is falling. Bodes well for the prospects of snow on the back side of this system if you ask me.

[tpweather]

Personally, I like the looks of this radar. It looks as if bright banding is occurring over the Dayton area. The radar returns just have that look to them. That tells me there is cold air in the upper levels where the precip is falling. Bodes well for the prospects of snow on the back side of this system if you ask me.

I agree Doug and again just enough moisture left hopefully to see a quick change to snow in the early morning hours. Again no accumulation on any pavement surfaces and even grassy surfaces will have a hard time but a little snow in the air would be nice to see since I missed the first one last week lol. Even I-70 not expecting any problems on the roads but may get a nice coating on the grass.

[tpweather]

Still very mild for Siberia standards and the lowest I could find is -30. The Yukon in Canada and saw a temp of -37 and yes cold but not unheard of this time of year. Having cold air dip further south in the Northern Hemisphere keeps the arctic from getting to cold but my guess is sooner or later that will need to rebuild . Timing and I have no ideal but at least for the moment the coldest to average is on this side of the planet for about 7-10 days and hopefully more but still believe the central and probably eastern USA will turn somewhat milder after this period.

[tron777]

I checked critical thicknesses and it's way too warm for snow. 925 MB temps don't drop below zero until you get NW of Chicago. 850s are good once you get towards IND. I would say that the bright banding could fall as sleet and / or ice pellets and not snow based on that.

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys for the Sat night clipper:

The one item of interest for the weekend will be the track of a
weak system embedded within the broader ern trough, which will
pivot from the mid MS Rvr Vly into the nrn TN Vly by Saturday
night. This will bring, at the very least, some increased cloud
cover locally, but will also bring the potential for some light
snow, primarily near/S of the OH Rvr. As of right now, there are
quite a few uncertainties in the track of this system, with
some latitudinal variability amongst the guidance. Either way,
the lift and moisture availability with this system will likely
be on the meager/lighter side, so any accumulations should be
rather light locally (if any are to occur at all). This being
said, should this system be a bit stronger, more well-defined,
and on the nrn side of the solution envelope, the temp profile
and cold ground temps would support efficient light snow
accumulation for parts of srn OH and far SE IN and N KY. This is
a low probability scenario at this point, but it is mentioned
here for awareness purposes. At this juncture, it seems most
likely that the light snow misses us just to the S, with little
to no accumulation even in srn locales.

[tpweather]

That seems like a good call this far out on the clipper. I am surprised they have not mentioned the chances of a few snow showers on Friday. Maybe they will add this to the forecast on Thanksgiving and again not a big event but more to make folks who love their shopping that a snow shower or two could pop up during the say especially if you get the sun to come out of a brief period and just enough to help out with the Christmas spirit.

[Bgoney]

I checked critical thicknesses and it's way too warm for snow. 925 MB temps don't drop below zero until you get NW of Chicago. 850s are good once you get towards IND. I would say that the bright banding could fall as sleet and / or ice pellets and not snow based on that.

Yea that’s been the problem with this system from the get go and models picked up on this very early on , so nice job with the parameters but as usual there surface maps for a mix always default to snow accumulations

[tron777]

I checked critical thicknesses and it's way too warm for snow. 925 MB temps don't drop below zero until you get NW of Chicago. 850s are good once you get towards IND. I would say that the bright banding could fall as sleet and / or ice pellets and not snow based on that.

Yea that’s been the problem with this system from the get go and models picked up on this very early on , so nice job with the parameters but as usual there surface maps for a mix always default to snow accumulations

My slushy 1-2" call on grassy areas / car tops, etc will probably bust up north.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 47 and both DAY / CMH 45 today.

[dce]

I checked critical thicknesses and it's way too warm for snow. 925 MB temps don't drop below zero until you get NW of Chicago. 850s are good once you get towards IND. I would say that the bright banding could fall as sleet and / or ice pellets and not snow based on that.

Yeah. Not saying snow for this evening, but I'm talking about the prospects for snow the last half of this system. Something other than rain is falling when the radar looks like that. We will see. The models this evening have actually trended a little south with what they are depicting as snow for the overnight and morning hours.

[dce]

I checked critical thicknesses and it's way too warm for snow. 925 MB temps don't drop below zero until you get NW of Chicago. 850s are good once you get towards IND. I would say that the bright banding could fall as sleet and / or ice pellets and not snow based on that.

Yea that’s been the problem with this system from the get go and models picked up on this very early on , so nice job with the parameters but as usual there surface maps for a mix always default to snow accumulations

My slushy 1-2" call on grassy areas / car tops, etc will probably bust up north.

We'll see. I'm going to say there will be a stripe in the Miami valley somewhere of 1-2 inches.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and some great posts earlier. A couple of things about the current system. First we had a front come through here late Monday. Some cold air with this system and then we get another system within 48 hours so yes some cold air left behind but not so much at the surface and really the surface temps never dropped to much however upstairs the cold remained since we did not have a big push of warm air to push it out. Next we are seeing a storm that is getting stronger and this has been able to bring some of the colder temps northwest of Indy closer to the surface and yes snow has been falling for several hours but temps still in the mid 30's. With the low staying south this storm will bring some of the colder temps closer to the surface and with the storm getting stronger you have some big time snowflakes further up in the atmosphere and when the precip is hard enough snow can make it to the surface even with temps in the mid 30's.

Again the surface temps are way to warm and wet locally and even a few hours of some snow will only look nice when falling but very little will stick. Closer to I-70 you may have a few more hours of snow and temps a tad colder and again surface temps still a problem and with a wet pavement not going to see much in the way of pavement getting slick. Yes the grassy areas are cooler and sure you can get a nice coating.

That is my take on this system and the good thing is some added rainfall before it turns cold. Still looking for a few snow showers on Friday and yes hit and miss but no doubt flurries but with a few peaks of sun mid-day you can get a quick snow shower to even cover the pavement at times. Problem is models will not be able to pick that out this early.

Concerning clipper chances and models are trying to see the one late Saturday and early Sunday and still would not be surprised they will be hit and miss on this even until later Friday. Always a narrow path and maybe 75 miles wide at best but need to see exactly where that path is and also when it heads south it will make a turn to the east and sometimes that can help increase totals for a short period of time before it hits the mountains and usually dies off. Just getting .10 can get you 1 1/2 inches so it won't take much plus temps plenty cold enough where every flake sticks.

Then another chance of snow showers probably on Monday as those northwest winds will still be producing snow showers. I do agree the angle is one that the snow showers may only go so far south and then turn more eastward but still believe locally should see a few and the further northeast the better shot of getting a few more. I will talk about this more in the December topic over the next few days.

[tron777]

Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving to you all! Here's a little This Week in Weather from DT while you are sipping your coffee:

[tron777]

Almost a half inch of rain at CVG overnight.

[Bgoney]

35 here. Temps remained in the mid 30s to near 40 throughout the overnight for the region. Some qpf totals as of 7am , Kiln .50”. Kday .81” Kcvg .49” Cbus .78”. My gauge is temporarily down for repairs and will be back on line in the near future. I’ll trust the RFC for my totals until then

Have great day!!